Game Analysis
Lean – Washington (+6.5/+6) over PHILADELPHIA
Lean – Under (45)
The Eagles were missing 4 of their top 5 cornerbacks last week as they barely scraped out a win at home against the Giants, but Doug Peterson is optimistic they’ll get a few players back on Monday night. Colt McCoy was not impressive on Thanksgiving despite the favorable matchup versus a Cowboys defense sans Sean Lee and McCoy is now averaging just 5.3 yards per pass play on the season with a 6% interception rate. The good news for Washington’s offense is Trent Williams is back practicing after being hospitalized with a potential bruised liver and the 6-time Pro Bowl left tackle will be needed against Michael Bennett and Brandon Graham, who both rank in the top 20 in pass rushing efficiency.
Philly’s Josh Adams had 22 carries last week and seems to have taken over as the workhorse back for the Eagles’ offense with Jay Ajayi sidelined. Adams’ 46% rush success rate ranks 12th among running backs with at least 50 attempts and he’ll play an important role versus Washington’s 28th-rated run defense considering the passing game may be limited. Zach Ertz is a major cog in this Eagles offense, as he’s the only tight end to top 100 targets this season, but the Redskins allow just 6.2 yards per target to opposing tight ends (5th) and Ertz will likely be limited by Washington’s excellent safety tandem of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and D.J. Swearinger. Golden Tate is averaging less than 5 yards per target so far in Philadelphia and he’s unlikely to provide relief underneath for Wentz with Ertz blanketed.
Our model favors Philly by just 5 points and the overrated Eagles (now 3-8 ATS) apply to a 64-131-8 ATS situation that plays against .500 or worse favorites the week after winning a game by 3 points or less. I’ll lean with Washington and I’ll also lean under based on a 704-507-16 Under situation that applies to this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.2
35.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
86.7%
98.4%
-
Sack Rate
14.6%
14.1%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.6%
15.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.7%
43.5%
-
NYPP
12.0
12.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.2
26.4
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
26.4%
17.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.5%
46.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
51.4%
37.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
58.4
61.5
-
Early Down Succ
46.6%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
47.5%
52.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.7%
42.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
6.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.5
31.6
-
Run Ratio
45.9%
45.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
26.6
-
Game Control
-1.8
1.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.9
40.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.5%
48.7%
-
Sack Rate
7.3%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.2%
19.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.1%
43.7%
-
NYPP
6.7
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.7
22.2
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.8
-
Stuff Rate
22.7%
26.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.6%
45.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.7%
52.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
5.1
Game
-
All Snaps
63.6
63.1
-
Early Down Succ
51.5%
48.9%
-
Succ Rate
49.2%
46.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.9%
48.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.1
28.0
-
Run Ratio
38.3%
34.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.8
27.2
-
Game Control
-1.6
1.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@ARI |
24 – 6 W |
13.7 |
600.0% /
700.0% |
100.0% /
100.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
82.3 /
72.5 |
46.5% /
56.3% |
25.6% /
12.5% |
4.3 /
4.3 |
46 /
18 |
50.0% /
53.7% |
82.6% /
127.8% |
47.0% /
35.0% |
9.3 /
11.9 |
2.2% /
5.6% |
93.5% /
88.9% |
18.0 /
29.3 |
| 2 |
IND |
9 – 21 L |
-8.3 |
48.9% /
43.8% |
6.4% /
3.1% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
5.7 /
5.5 |
40.9% /
40.0% |
40.9% /
13.3% |
3.0 /
3.5 |
69 /
62 |
50.0% /
40.5% |
46.4% /
41.9% |
28.1% /
25.4% |
4.8 /
4.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
48.4% |
29.3 /
24.7 |
| 3 |
GB |
31 – 17 W |
12.0 |
50.0% /
34.7% |
0.0% /
8.2% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
11.0 /
4.9 |
32.4% /
64.7% |
10.8% /
11.8% |
4.5 /
5.9 |
57 /
66 |
40.5% /
42.9% |
38.6% /
42.4% |
60.1% /
35.9% |
6.8 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
64.9% /
25.8% |
30.8 /
26.4 |
| 5 |
@NO |
19 – 43 L |
-15.4 |
69.2% /
71.4% |
11.5% /
7.1% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
12.5 |
50.0% /
36.1% |
27.8% /
5.6% |
2.2 /
2.8 |
44 /
64 |
48.8% /
54.9% |
61.4% /
51.6% |
51.2% /
54.3% |
6.4 /
7.0 |
2.3% /
1.6% |
40.9% /
56.3% |
33.4 /
36.2 |
| 6 |
CAR |
23 – 17 W |
9.4 |
35.9% /
53.7% |
7.7% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
4.0 /
6.6 |
51.7% /
47.4% |
10.3% /
26.3% |
4.6 /
4.3 |
68 /
60 |
43.8% /
58.3% |
42.6% /
51.7% |
36.3% /
25.9% |
4.3 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
3.3% |
42.6% /
31.7% |
33.7 /
20.3 |
| 7 |
DAL |
20 – 17 W |
4.7 |
42.3% /
41.0% |
3.8% /
10.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.4 |
40.6% /
54.5% |
40.6% /
27.3% |
4.1 /
3.3 |
58 /
61 |
46.7% /
48.9% |
41.4% /
45.9% |
46.6% /
45.8% |
5.3 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
3.3% |
55.2% /
36.1% |
33.4 /
21.4 |
| 8 |
@NYG |
20 – 13 W |
6.0 |
46.9% /
32.1% |
0.0% /
13.2% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
5.6 /
5.0 |
50.0% /
35.7% |
23.5% /
42.9% |
5.4 /
2.6 |
66 /
67 |
53.1% /
34.7% |
48.5% /
32.8% |
42.1% /
46.9% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
51.5% /
20.9% |
26.4 /
27.2 |
| 9 |
ATL |
14 – 38 L |
-12.7 |
44.9% /
45.0% |
6.1% /
5.0% |
2.2% /
2.6% |
5.9 /
8.4 |
53.3% /
62.5% |
33.3% /
0.0% |
5.3 /
6.4 |
64 /
64 |
46.9% /
45.1% |
46.9% /
51.6% |
36.6% /
54.4% |
5.7 /
7.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.4% /
37.5% |
23.8 /
22.7 |
| 10 |
@TB |
16 – 3 W |
4.7 |
40.0% /
62.8% |
10.0% /
4.7% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
5.7 /
9.3 |
56.0% /
45.8% |
32.0% /
25.0% |
4.6 /
4.3 |
55 /
67 |
50.0% /
56.1% |
47.3% /
56.7% |
39.9% /
36.5% |
5.2 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
45.5% /
35.8% |
29.7 /
19.0 |
| 11 |
HOU |
21 – 23 L |
-4.8 |
35.7% /
51.9% |
11.9% /
11.1% |
5.4% /
8.3% |
3.7 /
6.7 |
58.6% /
40.6% |
13.8% /
18.8% |
4.3 /
4.4 |
71 /
59 |
45.5% /
50.0% |
45.1% /
45.8% |
19.4% /
44.2% |
3.9 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
40.8% /
54.2% |
34.4 /
31.8 |
| 12 |
@DAL |
23 – 31 L |
-6.3 |
51.2% /
45.7% |
7.3% /
11.4% |
7.9% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
7.4 |
42.9% /
41.7% |
14.3% /
16.7% |
3.9 /
4.1 |
62 /
71 |
53.1% /
48.1% |
48.4% /
43.7% |
34.9% /
50.5% |
5.4 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
50.7% |
32.1 /
26.9 |
| 13 |
@PHI |
13 – 28 L |
-4.3 |
25.0% /
59.0% |
10.7% /
0.0% |
4.0% /
2.6% |
4.7 /
7.8 |
35.7% /
32.4% |
42.9% /
18.9% |
7.4 /
3.6 |
42 /
76 |
31.3% /
50.9% |
28.6% /
46.1% |
60.4% /
41.1% |
5.6 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
48.7% |
23.0 /
30.0 |
| 14 |
NYG |
16 – 40 L |
-22.0 |
37.1% /
37.9% |
14.3% /
6.9% |
10.0% /
3.7% |
5.8 /
6.0 |
45.5% /
44.4% |
27.3% /
11.1% |
3.8 /
6.3 |
57 /
65 |
46.7% /
46.9% |
40.4% /
41.5% |
65.3% /
59.3% |
5.1 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.6% /
55.4% |
27.6 /
29.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
ATL |
18 – 12 W |
-0.9 |
32.4% /
31.9% |
5.4% /
8.5% |
2.9% /
2.3% |
3.2 /
4.8 |
53.6% /
44.4% |
21.4% /
27.8% |
4.1 /
4.1 |
65 /
65 |
40.4% /
38.8% |
41.5% /
35.4% |
20.6% /
49.5% |
3.6 /
4.6 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
27.7% |
22.2 /
35.2 |
| 2 |
@TB |
21 – 27 L |
-11.1 |
42.0% /
60.0% |
6.0% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
6.4 /
11.2 |
54.2% /
25.0% |
20.8% /
41.7% |
3.8 /
1.8 |
74 /
59 |
48.1% /
48.9% |
45.9% /
45.8% |
36.2% /
45.3% |
5.6 /
7.4 |
2.7% /
1.7% |
32.4% /
40.7% |
25.5 /
27.2 |
| 3 |
IND |
20 – 16 W |
0.6 |
47.6% /
39.5% |
11.9% /
4.7% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
3.3 |
60.0% /
38.5% |
28.6% /
23.1% |
4.3 /
5.2 |
77 /
56 |
55.6% /
45.2% |
53.2% /
39.3% |
34.0% /
46.9% |
4.9 /
3.7 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
45.5% /
23.2% |
21.6 /
36.1 |
| 4 |
@TEN |
23 – 26 L |
2.6 |
46.3% /
47.8% |
7.4% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
5.8 /
7.1 |
36.4% /
39.1% |
13.6% /
34.8% |
5.3 /
3.1 |
76 /
69 |
45.9% /
47.9% |
43.4% /
44.9% |
41.0% /
38.9% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
28.9% /
33.3% |
28.0 /
24.4 |
| 5 |
MIN |
21 – 23 L |
-7.0 |
80.8% /
74.2% |
11.5% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.9 /
9.6 |
58.8% /
44.0% |
11.8% /
20.0% |
4.8 /
3.2 |
43 /
56 |
63.6% /
62.5% |
72.1% /
60.7% |
51.9% /
48.8% |
8.5 /
6.7 |
4.7% /
1.8% |
39.5% /
44.6% |
30.9 /
27.0 |
| 6 |
@NYG |
34 – 13 W |
14.8 |
48.6% /
34.0% |
2.7% /
8.5% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
7.3 /
5.4 |
51.6% /
52.9% |
16.1% /
17.6% |
3.5 /
8.6 |
68 /
64 |
48.1% /
42.9% |
50.0% /
39.1% |
32.7% /
58.4% |
5.6 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.6% /
26.6% |
31.4 /
25.5 |
| 7 |
CAR |
17 – 21 L |
6.8 |
51.2% /
51.2% |
9.8% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
6.1 |
54.2% /
61.1% |
25.0% /
16.7% |
2.4 /
6.8 |
65 /
59 |
57.1% /
57.8% |
52.3% /
54.2% |
37.7% /
50.0% |
5.3 /
6.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
36.9% /
30.5% |
19.8 /
26.3 |
| 8 |
@JAC |
24 – 18 W |
2.2 |
52.9% /
44.4% |
11.8% /
8.9% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
5.9 |
41.9% /
64.7% |
12.9% /
17.6% |
4.4 /
4.1 |
65 /
62 |
50.0% /
52.2% |
47.7% /
50.0% |
62.6% /
34.3% |
6.1 /
5.4 |
1.5% /
1.6% |
47.7% /
27.4% |
26.9 /
29.0 |
| 10 |
DAL |
20 – 27 L |
-4.0 |
55.6% /
50.0% |
4.4% /
10.0% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.0 |
56.3% /
46.4% |
31.3% /
21.4% |
4.4 /
6.1 |
61 /
68 |
61.2% /
47.1% |
55.7% /
48.5% |
32.1% /
50.2% |
6.9 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
26.2% /
41.2% |
32.3 /
25.6 |
| 11 |
@NO |
7 – 48 L |
-20.4 |
36.1% /
68.8% |
8.3% /
0.0% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
3.8 /
11.7 |
58.3% /
44.7% |
25.0% /
26.3% |
4.8 /
4.6 |
48 /
70 |
47.2% /
57.1% |
41.7% /
55.7% |
14.3% /
56.5% |
4.1 /
7.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.0% /
54.3% |
25.1 /
27.2 |
| 12 |
NYG |
25 – 22 W |
-6.0 |
51.6% /
48.7% |
9.7% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
6.9 /
7.1 |
40.0% /
44.4% |
26.7% /
27.8% |
4.3 /
7.0 |
61 /
57 |
51.1% /
48.9% |
45.9% /
47.4% |
42.4% /
48.3% |
5.6 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.2% /
31.6% |
31.1 /
23.9 |
| 13 |
WAS |
28 – 13 W |
4.3 |
59.0% /
25.0% |
0.0% /
10.7% |
2.6% /
4.0% |
7.8 /
4.7 |
32.4% /
35.7% |
18.9% /
42.9% |
3.6 /
7.4 |
76 /
42 |
50.9% /
31.3% |
46.1% /
28.6% |
41.1% /
60.4% |
5.8 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.7% /
33.3% |
30.0 /
23.0 |
| 14 |
@DAL |
23 – 29 L |
-3.1 |
52.9% /
57.9% |
5.9% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
6.5 /
7.6 |
21.4% /
50.0% |
42.9% /
27.8% |
2.4 /
3.9 |
48 /
93 |
50.0% /
54.8% |
43.8% /
54.8% |
45.7% /
38.0% |
5.3 /
6.2 |
2.1% /
1.1% |
29.2% /
38.7% |
36.4 /
22.6 |
Washington Redskins
@ 
Philadelphia Eagles