Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) vs Washington

The Saints are currently our 5th-rated offense and they will be happy to welcome Mark Ingram back into the lineup on Monday night to pair with Alvin Kamara versus a Redskins rush defense rated 31st this season after finishing last in 2017. New Orleans is second in our early down efficiency metric, but just 21st in 3rd-down efficiency, which is just negative variance given that third-down performance typically mirrors early down performance. Thus, the Saints offense should get even better going forward, especially with Ingram adding another element. It’s not all bad for Washington’s defense. The Saints target running backs on 34% of passes (2nd-most) and the Redskins allowed just 5.1 yards per target out of the backfield last season (3rd) and rank 7th through the first 4 games this season. Furthermore, New Orleans’ explosiveness could be limited as Washington’s defense ranks best in the league in chunk plays conceded.

The Redskins offense has the highest rushing rate in the league after factoring out irrelevant plays and they are running outside right twice as often as outside left. I expect the Saints 6th-rated rush defense to shut down Washington’s ground game, especially with All-Pro Cam Jordan waiting on their more dominant side, leaving Alex Smith most of the responsibility to move the ball. Smith is connecting on 57% of his passes of more than 20 yards downfield this season (5th), a continuation from last year’s surprise uptick when he ranked 3rd in deep passing accuracy.

The Redskins are coming off a bye, which is worth about a point and a half, and our model makes this game Saints by just 5.1 points. However, New Orleans applies to a 70-28-1 ATS Monday night home team situation and I’ll pass on this game. If you’re in a pool and need to pick this game then I’d rather have the Saints (unless your pool line is 7.5).

Team Stats
Game Log

Redskins
Saints

WAS

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 23.3 27.7
Succ Pass Plays 233.0% 259.5%
Sack Rate 35.5% 37.1%
Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 12.0% 13.3%
Big Pass Yards 42.6% 29.4%
NYPP 33.0 27.6

Rush

Rush Plays 34.0 21.0
RB YPR 4.0 4.5
Stuff Rate 25.8% 12.5%
Succ Rush Plays 40.0% 53.7%
Big Rush Yards 55.6% 38.6%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 4.6

Game

All Snaps 57.3 48.7
Early Down Succ 46.8% 45.7%
Succ Rate 55.9% 70.7%
Big Yards Rate 45.1% 32.1%
Yards Per Play 7.0 7.2
Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 2.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 36.4 42.4
Run Ratio 63.4% 54.3%
Starting Field Pos 26.0 26.8
Game Control 5.8 -5.8

Points 21.3 14.7

NOR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 42.3 35.8
Succ Pass Plays 59.0% 58.2%
Sack Rate 3.7% 6.0%
Int Rate 0.0% 0.8%
Deep Pass Rate 15.1% 19.0%
Big Pass Yards 40.6% 44.3%
NYPP 7.3 9.2

Rush

Rush Plays 25.0 25.8
RB YPR 3.8 2.8
Stuff Rate 17.7% 24.0%
Succ Rush Plays 52.2% 37.1%
Big Rush Yards 37.9% 38.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 3.2

Game

All Snaps 67.3 61.5
Early Down Succ 61.6% 52.6%
Succ Rate 56.7% 49.1%
Big Yards Rate 40.1% 42.9%
Yards Per Play 6.2 6.3
Fumble Lost Rate 1.7% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.9 28.8
Run Ratio 36.7% 41.6%
Starting Field Pos 31.1 25.3
Game Control -1.6 1.6

Points 34.3 30.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@ARI	24 – 6 W	13.7	600.0% / 700.0%	100.0% / 100.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	82.3 / 72.5	46.5% / 56.3%	25.6% / 12.5%	4.3 / 4.3	46 / 18	50.0% / 53.7%	82.6% / 127.8%	47.0% / 35.0%	9.3 / 11.9	2.2% / 5.6%	93.5% / 88.9%	18.0 / 29.3
2	IND	9 – 21 L	-8.3	48.9% / 43.8%	6.4% / 3.1%	0.0% / 6.5%	5.7 / 5.5	40.9% / 40.0%	40.9% / 13.3%	3.0 / 3.5	69 / 62	50.0% / 40.5%	46.4% / 41.9%	28.1% / 25.4%	4.8 / 4.6	1.4% / 0.0%	31.9% / 48.4%	29.3 / 24.7
3	GB	31 – 17 W	12.0	50.0% / 34.7%	0.0% / 8.2%	5.0% / 0.0%	11.0 / 4.9	32.4% / 64.7%	10.8% / 11.8%	4.5 / 5.9	57 / 66	40.5% / 42.9%	38.6% / 42.4%	60.1% / 35.9%	6.8 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.5%	64.9% / 25.8%	30.8 / 26.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	TB	40 – 48 L	-7.4	73.9% / 64.3%	2.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 14.9	69.2% / 43.2%	23.1% / 18.9%	3.3 / 3.1	59 / 65	77.6% / 56.5%	72.9% / 52.3%	36.4% / 62.7%	8.1 / 8.2	3.4% / 0.0%	22.0% / 56.9%	25.9 / 26.4
2	CLE	21 – 18 W	-2.8	63.2% / 48.5%	7.9% / 9.1%	0.0% / 3.3%	5.6 / 7.1	37.5% / 33.3%	25.0% / 14.8%	2.6 / 3.4	62 / 60	60.4% / 43.5%	53.2% / 41.7%	30.8% / 43.4%	4.5 / 5.5	3.2% / 0.0%	38.7% / 45.0%	35.0 / 28.4
3	@ATL	43 – 37 W	0.3	56.0% / 63.2%	2.0% / 7.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 9.4	53.6% / 21.7%	14.3% / 43.5%	5.1 / 2.1	78 / 61	57.4% / 52.1%	55.1% / 47.5%	37.9% / 36.3%	6.9 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	35.9% / 37.7%	29.8 / 24.1
4	@NYG	33 – 18 W	3.5	42.9% / 56.8%	2.9% / 6.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 5.3	48.6% / 50.0%	8.6% / 18.8%	4.9 / 4.1	70 / 60	51.0% / 58.3%	45.7% / 55.0%	55.4% / 29.3%	5.6 / 5.0	0.0% / 3.3%	50.0% / 26.7%	33.9 / 22.5

Washington Redskins @

New Orleans Saints

Mon, Oct 8

5:15 PM Pacific

Game Analysis