Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – Washington (+6.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Washington was in a bad situation last Thursday night and were destroyed by the slumping Cowboys 14-38 as a 2 point favorite. However, teams that lose to the spread by that many points tend to rebound the next week and the Skins apply to a 78-21-1 ATS situation that plays on teams that lost to the spread by 25 points or more.
Washington right tackle Morgan Moses was carted off the field last week opening the door for Cowboys DeMarcus Lawrence to record 2 sacks. Moses has been cleared to play and star LT Trent Williams will play on his injured knee again this week, which is important given that the Chargers’ Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa both rank in top-5 in pressures. I’m not making the case that Washington is better than the Chargers at this point in the season but I do think the Redskins are better than they’ve shown, as they were even more banged up along the offensive line in the middle of the season. My model is showing some value on Washington (our model favors the Chargers by just 4 ½ points) and I like the situation. I’ll consider Washington a Strong Opinion in this game at +6 points or more.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.3
34.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.1%
43.8%
-
Sack Rate
7.5%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.0%
20.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
49.5%
43.6%
-
NYPP
6.9
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.8
28.0
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
22.0%
20.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.6%
48.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.2%
38.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
64.2
62.8
-
Early Down Succ
49.0%
48.8%
-
Succ Rate
45.7%
46.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.5%
42.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
28.2
-
Run Ratio
41.6%
44.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.5
29.9
-
Game Control
0.8
-0.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.3
37.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.1%
42.9%
-
Sack Rate
3.0%
8.2%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
3.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.6%
19.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.7%
34.5%
-
NYPP
7.3
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.7
27.3
-
RB YPR
3.7
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
30.8%
24.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
34.8%
47.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.9%
45.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
63.9
64.5
-
Early Down Succ
44.2%
46.5%
-
Succ Rate
42.0%
44.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.4%
40.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.9
28.9
-
Run Ratio
41.1%
42.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.5
27.0
-
Game Control
1.3
-1.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
PHI |
17 – 30 L |
-5.1 |
38.6% / 51.2% |
9.1% / 4.9% |
2.5% / 2.6% |
4.5 / 7.3 |
58.8% / 36.0% |
23.5% / 28.0% |
3.8 / 2.4 |
61 / 66 |
49.0% / 44.0% |
44.3% / 45.5% |
38.3% / 37.8% |
4.3 / 5.4 |
4.9% / 1.5% |
27.9% / 37.9% |
26.1 / 31.8 |
2 |
@LA |
27 – 20 W |
4.5 |
48.3% / 39.3% |
6.9% / 7.1% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
5.4 / 8.6 |
46.2% / 59.1% |
17.9% / 13.6% |
5.9 / 4.2 |
68 / 50 |
49.1% / 51.4% |
47.1% / 48.0% |
46.2% / 61.9% |
5.7 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 2.0% |
57.4% / 44.0% |
34.5 / 22.4 |
3 |
OAK |
27 – 10 W |
11.9 |
61.3% / 37.1% |
3.2% / 11.4% |
0.0% / 6.5% |
11.5 / 2.7 |
35.3% / 21.4% |
17.6% / 21.4% |
3.4 / 2.4 |
65 / 49 |
48.0% / 42.4% |
47.7% / 32.7% |
53.2% / 24.8% |
7.3 / 2.6 |
3.1% / 2.0% |
52.3% / 28.6% |
28.7 / 31.7 |
4 |
@KC |
20 – 29 L |
4.3 |
45.8% / 47.5% |
0.0% / 10.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.2 / 6.5 |
51.9% / 58.1% |
14.8% / 19.4% |
4.1 / 5.4 |
51 / 71 |
54.1% / 51.7% |
49.0% / 52.1% |
57.2% / 43.4% |
6.5 / 6.0 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
52.9% / 43.7% |
26.8 / 21.2 |
6 |
SF |
26 – 24 W |
7.0 |
60.5% / 30.0% |
2.6% / 6.0% |
2.7% / 2.1% |
8.6 / 5.0 |
38.2% / 65.0% |
29.4% / 25.0% |
2.8 / 4.3 |
72 / 70 |
51.8% / 41.2% |
50.0% / 40.0% |
43.6% / 50.4% |
5.8 / 4.8 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
47.2% / 28.6% |
26.9 / 32.6 |
7 |
@PHI |
24 – 34 L |
-4.7 |
56.8% / 53.6% |
9.1% / 10.7% |
2.5% / 4.0% |
6.1 / 8.7 |
47.4% / 29.4% |
15.8% / 23.5% |
4.0 / 3.8 |
63 / 62 |
62.5% / 39.6% |
54.0% / 40.3% |
46.4% / 63.4% |
5.5 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.2% / 54.8% |
27.7 / 32.5 |
8 |
DAL |
19 – 33 L |
-2.5 |
39.5% / 37.5% |
9.3% / 8.3% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 5.8 |
40.0% / 61.5% |
26.7% / 20.5% |
3.3 / 4.3 |
58 / 63 |
40.9% / 57.4% |
39.7% / 52.4% |
50.5% / 24.1% |
4.9 / 4.9 |
3.4% / 1.6% |
25.9% / 61.9% |
29.7 / 39.1 |
9 |
@SEA |
17 – 14 W |
2.3 |
40.5% / 43.5% |
16.2% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 4.5% |
5.2 / 6.3 |
39.1% / 57.1% |
34.8% / 14.3% |
2.2 / 5.3 |
60 / 74 |
42.6% / 51.7% |
40.0% / 48.6% |
51.6% / 48.5% |
4.1 / 5.9 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
38.3% / 37.8% |
27.8 / 30.7 |
10 |
MIN |
30 – 38 L |
-6.2 |
45.7% / 65.5% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
2.2% / 6.9% |
6.8 / 10.5 |
46.4% / 51.5% |
21.4% / 30.3% |
2.9 / 3.2 |
74 / 62 |
49.1% / 60.9% |
45.9% / 58.1% |
43.0% / 52.2% |
5.3 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.8% / 53.2% |
34.1 / 34.6 |
11 |
@NO |
31 – 34 L |
5.7 |
47.1% / 57.1% |
5.9% / 4.8% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
8.8 / 8.9 |
51.5% / 60.9% |
12.1% / 17.4% |
4.7 / 7.0 |
67 / 65 |
50.9% / 62.3% |
49.3% / 58.5% |
47.8% / 54.2% |
6.8 / 8.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 35.4% |
23.4 / 24.3 |
12 |
NYG |
20 – 10 W |
0.8 |
35.1% / 29.0% |
16.2% / 12.9% |
3.2% / 3.7% |
5.4 / 2.8 |
38.2% / 32.0% |
23.5% / 20.0% |
3.6 / 3.4 |
71 / 56 |
44.0% / 36.8% |
36.6% / 30.4% |
47.7% / 22.2% |
4.6 / 3.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.9% / 44.6% |
32.4 / 21.8 |
13 |
@DAL |
14 – 38 L |
-8.3 |
46.3% / 34.8% |
9.8% / 4.3% |
5.4% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 4.0 |
42.1% / 52.4% |
26.3% / 16.7% |
2.9 / 4.3 |
60 / 65 |
46.7% / 46.0% |
45.0% / 46.2% |
32.9% / 26.5% |
4.7 / 4.2 |
3.3% / 0.0% |
31.7% / 64.6% |
24.5 / 36.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DEN |
21 – 24 L |
-6.6 |
47.1% / 50.0% |
2.9% / 12.5% |
3.0% / 3.6% |
5.4 / 5.7 |
27.3% / 40.5% |
31.8% / 18.9% |
2.9 / 3.8 |
56 / 69 |
42.9% / 44.2% |
39.3% / 44.9% |
27.7% / 47.8% |
4.4 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
39.3% / 53.6% |
31.6 / 31.8 |
2 |
MIA |
17 – 19 L |
2.0 |
62.5% / 44.4% |
2.5% / 5.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.1 / 6.3 |
28.6% / 36.4% |
50.0% / 30.3% |
3.1 / 3.4 |
54 / 69 |
58.7% / 43.4% |
53.7% / 40.6% |
28.6% / 38.9% |
6.8 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
25.9% / 47.8% |
24.9 / 26.4 |
3 |
KC |
10 – 24 L |
-8.0 |
35.7% / 34.6% |
4.8% / 19.2% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 4.7 |
34.6% / 56.0% |
34.6% / 20.0% |
4.0 / 7.6 |
68 / 51 |
34.5% / 50.0% |
35.3% / 45.1% |
39.1% / 55.0% |
4.9 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.2% / 49.0% |
22.8 / 30.5 |
4 |
PHI |
24 – 26 L |
-6.2 |
42.5% / 46.9% |
5.0% / 3.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.6 / 7.5 |
38.5% / 47.7% |
46.2% / 20.5% |
4.5 / 4.9 |
53 / 76 |
39.5% / 47.3% |
41.5% / 47.4% |
68.3% / 56.1% |
7.5 / 6.0 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
24.5% / 57.9% |
22.2 / 22.1 |
5 |
@NYG |
27 – 22 W |
-2.4 |
36.4% / 34.1% |
0.0% / 12.2% |
2.3% / 2.8% |
5.9 / 4.5 |
31.3% / 72.0% |
21.9% / 12.0% |
3.9 / 6.1 |
76 / 66 |
34.0% / 54.0% |
34.2% / 48.5% |
36.2% / 46.3% |
5.1 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
42.1% / 37.9% |
29.0 / 28.2 |
6 |
@OAK |
17 – 16 W |
-3.2 |
45.9% / 51.6% |
2.7% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 6.7% |
7.1 / 5.3 |
21.9% / 50.0% |
18.8% / 31.8% |
2.6 / 5.0 |
69 / 53 |
34.0% / 52.5% |
34.8% / 50.9% |
33.6% / 35.4% |
5.0 / 5.2 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
46.4% / 41.5% |
24.7 / 31.7 |
7 |
DEN |
21 – 0 W |
11.1 |
34.5% / 35.0% |
10.3% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
5.6 / 4.6 |
19.2% / 21.1% |
42.3% / 21.1% |
3.1 / 3.6 |
55 / 59 |
28.6% / 32.6% |
27.3% / 30.5% |
44.6% / 13.5% |
4.4 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 3.4% |
47.3% / 32.2% |
29.8 / 23.2 |
8 |
@NE |
13 – 21 L |
-4.4 |
46.7% / 50.0% |
3.3% / 6.0% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 6.3 |
66.7% / 43.8% |
19.0% / 28.1% |
7.5 / 3.0 |
51 / 82 |
60.0% / 46.8% |
54.9% / 47.6% |
38.7% / 21.3% |
6.8 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.2% / 39.0% |
20.5 / 30.5 |
10 |
@JAC |
17 – 20 L |
0.3 |
43.2% / 37.0% |
0.0% / 5.6% |
2.7% / 3.9% |
6.4 / 4.9 |
48.4% / 29.6% |
25.8% / 29.6% |
2.8 / 5.0 |
68 / 81 |
54.9% / 36.1% |
45.6% / 34.6% |
38.4% / 34.7% |
4.8 / 4.9 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
45.6% / 33.3% |
21.1 / 30.7 |
11 |
BUF |
54 – 24 W |
21.2 |
56.8% / 45.0% |
2.7% / 2.5% |
0.0% / 12.8% |
7.6 / 5.5 |
34.2% / 50.0% |
31.6% / 36.4% |
3.9 / 7.9 |
75 / 62 |
48.2% / 47.8% |
45.3% / 46.8% |
41.2% / 49.1% |
5.8 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
50.7% / 35.5% |
44.0 / 21.7 |
12 |
@DAL |
28 – 6 W |
6.7 |
57.6% / 51.7% |
0.0% / 6.9% |
0.0% / 7.4% |
13.2 / 5.8 |
26.3% / 80.0% |
18.4% / 10.0% |
2.2 / 4.0 |
71 / 49 |
41.7% / 65.8% |
40.8% / 63.3% |
53.2% / 15.4% |
7.3 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
53.5% / 40.8% |
20.6 / 23.3 |
13 |
CLE |
19 – 10 W |
4.7 |
56.8% / 34.3% |
2.3% / 8.6% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
7.6 / 5.8 |
40.7% / 45.5% |
29.6% / 31.8% |
3.6 / 4.0 |
71 / 57 |
52.9% / 37.8% |
50.7% / 38.6% |
35.7% / 68.0% |
6.1 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
38.0% / 38.6% |
26.6 / 24.3 |