Game Analysis
GREEN BAY (-12.5) vs Washington
Green Bay’s receiving core is finally rounding into form for Aaron Rodgers. Allen Lazard saw his first target in week 6 and has gained 2.08 yards per route run since, which ranks 19th among wide receivers during that stretch. Davante Adams missed the entire month of October but has been dominant when on the field, averaging 2.37 yards per route run (5th). However, Rodgers may not have time to find his receivers downfield in this matchup. Redskins’ interior defender Matt Ioannidis has a 13% pass rush win rate (10th) and will likely dominate Billy Turner, who has conceded more pressures than any other guard in the NFL. Aaron Jones is gaining 1.71 yards per route run (4th) and will likely see a ton of check-downs versus linebacker Cole Holcomb, who is surrendering 1.46 yards per cover snap (6th-worst). Jones is also averaging 0.22 avoided tackles per rush (4th) and leads the Packers 2nd-rated ground game.
Green Bay’s Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith are ranked in the top 10 in pass rush win rate among edge defenders and the duo will make it difficult for Dwayne Haskins on Sunday. The tackles are the weak point of Washington’s offensive line with Morgan Moses and Donald Penn combining to allow 51 pressures this season. Although, Terry McLaurin will be dangerous when Haskins is kept clean. McLaurin has 10 receptions with 20+ air yards and Green Bay’s defense is susceptible to the deep ball, particularly Kevin King, who is the only qualifying cornerback conceding more than 2 yards per cover snap. Running back Derrius Guice has been excellent in limited action thus far with 13 avoided tackles on only 44 total touches and 5.5 ypr and he has been a nice compliment to veteran Adrian Peterson, who is averaging a healthy 4.4 yards per rush. The rushing attack will need to be good given how bad Dwayne Haskins has been (just 4.2 yards per pass play)
Aaron Jones will be featured in this matchup as I expect the Packers to play conservatively before closing the season with three divisional games. Terry McLaurin is likely to get behind Green Bay’s secondary at least once in this game for the Redskins and the rushing attack could have moderate success. But, I don’t see any value here, as our model favors the Packers by 11.9 points, with a predicted total of 41.4 points. Green Bay does apply to a decent 126-66-4 ATS good team at home after two road games situation though.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.5
35.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.6%
47.1%
-
Sack Rate
11.1%
8.0%
-
Int Rate
3.0%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.0%
17.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.4%
43.4%
-
NYPP
4.8
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.7
31.3
-
RB YPR
4.3
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
21.7%
20.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.7%
47.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.7%
37.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
54.2
67.1
-
Early Down Succ
47.1%
47.9%
-
Succ Rate
42.7%
47.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.6%
40.7%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.3
29.8
-
Run Ratio
40.7%
47.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.1
30.1
-
Game Control
-5.0
5.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.3%
47.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.0%
6.4%
-
Int Rate
0.4%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.5%
18.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.2%
49.5%
-
NYPP
6.6
7.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.8
26.3
-
RB YPR
3.7
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
20.1%
17.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.1%
54.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.4%
33.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
61.8
62.3
-
Early Down Succ
51.5%
52.9%
-
Succ Rate
47.4%
50.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.6%
45.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.4
27.9
-
Run Ratio
40.0%
42.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.8
28.3
-
Game Control
2.4
-2.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@PHI |
27 – 32 L |
4.0 |
47.8% /
55.0% |
2.2% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
7.8 |
30.8% /
45.2% |
23.1% /
22.6% |
2.2 /
4.0 |
59 /
71 |
44.2% /
47.1% |
44.1% /
50.7% |
40.2% /
42.0% |
6.7 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
22.0% /
43.7% |
23.5 /
31.4 |
| 2 |
DAL |
21 – 31 L |
-4.6 |
57.9% /
61.3% |
2.6% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
5.5 /
8.4 |
41.2% /
64.7% |
17.6% /
8.8% |
2.8 /
6.3 |
55 /
65 |
59.5% /
64.2% |
52.7% /
63.1% |
22.4% /
43.5% |
4.6 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.9% /
52.3% |
30.7 /
19.3 |
| 3 |
CHI |
15 – 31 L |
-13.9 |
57.4% /
55.9% |
8.5% /
8.8% |
7.0% /
3.2% |
6.1 /
6.1 |
57.1% /
41.7% |
19.0% /
20.8% |
3.3 /
3.8 |
68 /
58 |
61.8% /
46.7% |
57.4% /
50.0% |
25.3% /
28.5% |
5.2 /
5.1 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
30.9% /
41.4% |
28.7 /
36.9 |
| 4 |
@NYG |
3 – 24 L |
-13.4 |
35.5% /
54.8% |
9.7% /
0.0% |
14.3% /
6.5% |
3.9 /
7.3 |
23.5% /
48.6% |
17.6% /
18.9% |
3.2 /
4.4 |
48 /
68 |
35.1% /
49.1% |
31.3% /
51.5% |
41.5% /
48.8% |
3.7 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
35.4% /
54.4% |
25.9 /
26.8 |
| 5 |
NE |
7 – 33 L |
-9.4 |
30.3% /
48.9% |
18.2% /
8.5% |
3.7% /
2.3% |
2.3 /
6.6 |
45.0% /
44.4% |
15.0% /
25.9% |
7.3 /
4.8 |
53 /
74 |
42.9% /
51.7% |
35.8% /
47.3% |
50.5% /
49.3% |
4.2 /
6.0 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
37.7% /
36.5% |
23.8 /
32.4 |
| 6 |
@MIA |
17 – 16 W |
6.1 |
40.0% /
33.3% |
0.0% /
10.4% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
6.6 /
3.9 |
45.5% /
52.4% |
18.2% /
19.0% |
4.4 /
4.0 |
58 /
69 |
50.0% /
42.3% |
43.1% /
39.1% |
42.8% /
28.0% |
5.4 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
56.9% /
30.4% |
27.3 /
28.3 |
| 7 |
SF |
0 – 9 L |
-1.5 |
26.7% /
34.8% |
20.0% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
3.3 /
6.3 |
38.5% /
46.2% |
23.1% /
25.6% |
4.0 /
3.5 |
41 /
62 |
35.5% /
40.9% |
34.1% /
41.9% |
38.3% /
41.0% |
3.8 /
4.6 |
2.4% /
0.0% |
63.4% /
62.9% |
23.8 /
32.5 |
| 8 |
@MIN |
9 – 19 L |
-4.9 |
56.0% /
48.3% |
16.0% /
10.3% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
9.4 |
62.5% /
44.7% |
25.0% /
18.4% |
5.3 /
4.2 |
41 /
67 |
64.7% /
44.9% |
58.5% /
46.3% |
34.7% /
47.7% |
5.3 /
6.5 |
2.4% /
1.5% |
39.0% /
56.7% |
27.1 /
27.0 |
| 9 |
@BUF |
9 – 24 L |
-8.5 |
34.6% /
45.5% |
15.4% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.5 /
6.6 |
34.8% /
53.8% |
30.4% /
17.9% |
5.5 /
3.1 |
49 /
61 |
40.5% /
54.5% |
34.7% /
50.8% |
42.8% /
48.9% |
5.0 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.9% /
63.9% |
27.3 /
34.9 |
| 11 |
NYJ |
17 – 34 L |
-14.5 |
34.1% /
51.5% |
14.6% /
6.1% |
2.9% /
3.2% |
4.2 /
8.6 |
45.0% /
45.5% |
35.0% /
24.2% |
2.7 /
3.5 |
61 /
66 |
38.6% /
51.0% |
37.7% /
48.5% |
57.8% /
43.0% |
3.7 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
32.8% /
50.0% |
34.6 /
35.3 |
| 12 |
DET |
19 – 16 W |
2.2 |
33.3% /
35.9% |
9.1% /
15.4% |
3.3% /
9.1% |
4.4 /
4.8 |
33.3% /
53.1% |
16.7% /
15.6% |
3.6 /
5.5 |
57 /
71 |
36.6% /
44.6% |
33.3% /
43.7% |
49.6% /
37.4% |
4.0 /
5.1 |
1.8% /
1.4% |
42.1% /
45.1% |
30.8 /
32.1 |
| 13 |
@CAR |
29 – 21 W |
-1.9 |
33.3% /
39.6% |
16.7% /
13.2% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
3.8 /
4.0 |
66.7% /
30.0% |
20.0% /
30.0% |
8.3 /
3.3 |
60 /
73 |
56.3% /
38.2% |
50.0% /
37.0% |
64.9% /
29.9% |
6.0 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
50.0% /
27.4% |
33.8 /
24.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CHI |
10 – 3 W |
2.9 |
40.0% /
34.0% |
14.3% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
4.7 /
4.2 |
22.7% /
40.0% |
36.4% /
26.7% |
2.1 /
3.1 |
57 /
65 |
39.5% /
41.7% |
33.3% /
35.4% |
53.1% /
38.2% |
3.7 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.6% /
23.1% |
30.9 /
22.7 |
| 2 |
MIN |
21 – 16 W |
9.0 |
44.4% /
30.3% |
5.6% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
5.3 /
6.8 |
54.5% /
55.6% |
21.2% /
18.5% |
4.4 /
7.3 |
69 /
60 |
54.7% /
44.7% |
49.3% /
41.7% |
32.5% /
65.6% |
4.9 /
7.0 |
2.9% /
3.3% |
47.8% /
45.0% |
28.5 /
28.7 |
| 3 |
DEN |
27 – 16 W |
7.3 |
37.9% /
45.7% |
0.0% /
17.1% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
8.1 /
4.6 |
52.2% /
60.5% |
17.4% /
13.2% |
3.3 /
3.9 |
52 /
73 |
50.0% /
52.7% |
44.2% /
53.4% |
45.2% /
40.0% |
6.0 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
44.2% /
52.1% |
36.3 /
26.0 |
| 4 |
PHI |
27 – 34 L |
-0.2 |
48.1% /
55.6% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
5.9 |
55.0% /
69.7% |
30.0% /
6.1% |
3.9 /
5.3 |
74 /
60 |
50.8% /
67.3% |
50.0% /
63.3% |
39.5% /
31.3% |
6.6 /
5.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
27.0% /
55.0% |
21.0 /
31.9 |
| 5 |
@DAL |
34 – 24 W |
14.0 |
41.7% /
53.2% |
5.6% /
6.4% |
0.0% /
6.8% |
6.0 /
9.4 |
55.2% /
66.7% |
17.2% /
14.3% |
4.1 /
5.8 |
65 /
68 |
54.9% /
61.7% |
47.7% /
57.4% |
52.5% /
62.3% |
5.2 /
8.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
30.9% |
31.7 /
23.1 |
| 6 |
DET |
23 – 22 W |
-5.8 |
40.0% /
40.0% |
2.5% /
8.6% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
6.9 |
62.1% /
40.0% |
3.4% /
30.0% |
5.9 /
2.8 |
69 /
55 |
53.6% /
45.0% |
49.3% /
40.0% |
49.0% /
58.9% |
6.5 /
5.4 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
42.0% /
36.4% |
21.0 /
33.2 |
| 7 |
OAK |
42 – 24 W |
10.0 |
68.8% /
67.7% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
13.2 /
10.6 |
34.8% /
38.7% |
21.7% /
16.1% |
2.6 /
5.0 |
55 /
62 |
55.8% /
53.1% |
54.5% /
53.2% |
68.4% /
38.0% |
8.7 /
7.8 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
41.8% /
50.0% |
16.6 /
29.3 |
| 8 |
@KC |
31 – 24 W |
3.7 |
52.6% /
47.4% |
13.2% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.6 |
57.7% /
75.0% |
7.7% /
5.0% |
4.5 /
4.4 |
64 /
58 |
55.1% /
57.4% |
54.7% /
56.9% |
48.1% /
38.6% |
5.8 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
40.6% /
34.5% |
26.6 /
28.6 |
| 9 |
@LAC |
11 – 26 L |
-9.8 |
42.1% /
60.0% |
7.9% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
9.4 |
63.6% /
63.2% |
9.1% /
13.2% |
4.1 /
4.2 |
49 /
68 |
55.3% /
66.7% |
46.9% /
61.8% |
0.0% /
37.1% |
3.8 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
22.4% /
55.9% |
25.8 /
29.7 |
| 10 |
CAR |
24 – 16 W |
4.9 |
38.7% /
45.7% |
6.5% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
7.3 /
6.1 |
70.4% /
52.2% |
18.5% /
8.7% |
6.0 /
5.2 |
58 /
69 |
55.1% /
48.3% |
53.4% /
47.8% |
56.2% /
28.7% |
6.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
46.6% /
33.3% |
25.6 /
25.0 |
| 12 |
@SF |
8 – 37 L |
-16.2 |
26.2% /
52.2% |
11.9% /
13.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
1.9 /
9.9 |
39.3% /
36.4% |
35.7% /
31.8% |
4.2 /
5.1 |
70 /
45 |
38.5% /
48.6% |
31.4% /
44.4% |
22.2% /
69.3% |
2.8 /
7.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
48.9% |
25.2 /
40.9 |
| 13 |
@NYG |
31 – 13 W |
8.4 |
51.5% /
40.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
8.1% |
7.4 /
6.5 |
57.7% /
55.6% |
23.1% /
25.9% |
3.0 /
3.5 |
59 /
64 |
54.5% /
47.8% |
54.2% /
46.9% |
44.4% /
42.7% |
5.5 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.1% /
42.2% |
33.1 /
20.4 |
Washington Redskins
@ 
Green Bay Packers