Washington Redskins @

Green Bay Packers

Sun, Dec 8
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 133
Odds: Green Bay Packers -12.5, Total: 41.5

Game Analysis

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GREEN BAY (-12.5) vs Washington

Green Bay’s receiving core is finally rounding into form for Aaron Rodgers. Allen Lazard saw his first target in week 6 and has gained 2.08 yards per route run since, which ranks 19th among wide receivers during that stretch. Davante Adams missed the entire month of October but has been dominant when on the field, averaging 2.37 yards per route run (5th). However, Rodgers may not have time to find his receivers downfield in this matchup. Redskins’ interior defender Matt Ioannidis has a 13% pass rush win rate (10th) and will likely dominate Billy Turner, who has conceded more pressures than any other guard in the NFL. Aaron Jones is gaining 1.71 yards per route run (4th) and will likely see a ton of check-downs versus linebacker Cole Holcomb, who is surrendering 1.46 yards per cover snap (6th-worst). Jones is also averaging 0.22 avoided tackles per rush (4th) and leads the Packers 2nd-rated ground game.

Green Bay’s Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith are ranked in the top 10 in pass rush win rate among edge defenders and the duo will make it difficult for Dwayne Haskins on Sunday. The tackles are the weak point of Washington’s offensive line with Morgan Moses and Donald Penn combining to allow 51 pressures this season. Although, Terry McLaurin will be dangerous when Haskins is kept clean. McLaurin has 10 receptions with 20+ air yards and Green Bay’s defense is susceptible to the deep ball, particularly Kevin King, who is the only qualifying cornerback conceding more than 2 yards per cover snap. Running back Derrius Guice has been excellent in limited action thus far with 13 avoided tackles on only 44 total touches and 5.5 ypr and he has been a nice compliment to veteran Adrian Peterson, who is averaging a healthy 4.4 yards per rush. The rushing attack will need to be good given how bad Dwayne Haskins has been (just 4.2 yards per pass play)

Aaron Jones will be featured in this matchup as I expect the Packers to play conservatively before closing the season with three divisional games. Terry McLaurin is likely to get behind Green Bay’s secondary at least once in this game for the Redskins and the rushing attack could have moderate success. But, I don’t see any value here, as our model favors the Packers by 11.9 points, with a predicted total of 41.4 points. Green Bay does apply to a decent 126-66-4 ATS good team at home after two road games situation though.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Redskins
  • Packers


  • Pass Plays 32.5 35.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 40.6% 47.1%
  • Sack Rate 11.1% 8.0%
  • Int Rate 3.0% 3.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.0% 17.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 37.4% 43.4%
  • NYPP 4.8 6.7


  • Rush Plays 21.7 31.3
  • RB YPR 4.3 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 21.7% 20.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 43.7% 47.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 37.7% 37.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.4 4.2


  • All Snaps 54.2 67.1
  • Early Down Succ 47.1% 47.9%
  • Succ Rate 42.7% 47.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 42.6% 40.7%
  • Yards Per Play 4.8 5.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.3 29.8
  • Run Ratio 40.7% 47.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.1 30.1
  • Game Control -5.0 5.0
  • Points 14.4 24.2
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