Game Analysis
Note: Dallas was a released to subscribers as a Best Bet when the line was -11 but I still like the Cowboys even with Dak Prescott’s shoulder injury.
Best Bet – *DALLAS (-11) over Washington
This line is too low because the narrative is that the Cowboys quit on Jason Garrett and the public seems to believe Case Keenum is a major upgrade over Dwayne Haskins. However, the market does not seem to be accounting for all of the crucial Redskins injuries. Washington’s secondary will play without all five opening day starters plus four other backups will be out. If safety Troy Apke (questionable) is unable to suit up, none of the Redskins starters in the secondary will have played more than 100 snaps this season. Furthermore, Washington won’t have their best edge rusher Ryan Kerrigan again, which leaves interior defender Matt Ioannidis as the only pass rushing threat in a difficult matchup. Ioannidis has a 14% pass rush win rate (9th) but he will be neutralized by right guard Zack Martin, who has yet to concede a sack and is on track for another All-Pro season. Dallas won’t have left tackle Tyron Smith or left guard Xavier Su’a-Filo, but none of the Redskins pass rushers on that side will be able to take advantage.
Washington’s offense will also be missing some important players. Right guard Brandon Scherff (out) ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency and backup Wes Martin has no chance of staying in front of interior defender Michael Bennett, who ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency. Terry McLaurin has been the Redskins only receiving threat with tight ends Vernon Davis and Jordan Reed out most of the year, but the rookie wide receiver is out on Sunday. McLaurin gained 2.05 yards per route run (12th) while remaining wide receivers Kelvin Harmon and Steven Sims rank 73rd and 75th respectively in yards per route run.
The Cowboys offense is underrated after facing four-straight defenses ranked in the top 10 in yards allowed per play and then facing the Eagles last week with Dak Prescott’s shoulder injury. Dallas is still leading the league with 6.5 yards per play and the offense will move the ball against Washington’s defensive backups even though I don’t think Prescott is fully healthy. The Cowboys ground game ranks 4th and the Redskins have the 25th-rated rush defense, so Prescott won’t need to throw as often for the Cowboys to move the ball. The loss of Scherff and McLaurin more than offsets any potential upgrade Keenum provides over Haskins and I don’t see how Washington’s offense can reach 20 points in this game. I’m making a 3.5-point adjustment for Prescott’s shoulder and the left side of the offensive line injuries, but our model still favors Dallas by 14.3 with a predicted total of 47.0 points. Dallas is a 1-Star Best Bet at -12.5 points or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.7
36.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.8%
47.7%
-
Sack Rate
10.2%
7.7%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.8%
16.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.4%
42.4%
-
NYPP
5.2
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.5
30.5
-
RB YPR
4.2
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
22.3%
19.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.7%
49.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.8%
42.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.7
Game
-
All Snaps
55.1
67.1
-
Early Down Succ
47.6%
48.9%
-
Succ Rate
43.8%
48.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.4%
42.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.0
29.7
-
Run Ratio
41.3%
45.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.9
29.3
-
Game Control
-5.0
5.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.9
37.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.7%
48.0%
-
Sack Rate
3.2%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.1%
19.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.8%
43.8%
-
NYPP
7.7
6.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.5
25.8
-
RB YPR
4.3
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
16.3%
22.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.7%
48.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.3%
39.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
66.5
63.7
-
Early Down Succ
54.6%
52.1%
-
Succ Rate
52.7%
48.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.9%
43.4%
-
Yards Per Play
6.4
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.5
29.0
-
Run Ratio
41.5%
40.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.6
29.8
-
Game Control
0.7
-0.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@PHI |
27 – 32 L |
4.0 |
47.8% / 55.0% |
2.2% / 2.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.0 / 7.8 |
30.8% / 45.2% |
23.1% / 22.6% |
2.2 / 4.0 |
59 / 71 |
44.2% / 47.1% |
44.1% / 50.7% |
40.2% / 42.0% |
6.7 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
22.0% / 43.7% |
23.5 / 31.4 |
2 |
DAL |
21 – 31 L |
-4.6 |
57.9% / 61.3% |
2.6% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 3.3% |
5.5 / 8.4 |
41.2% / 64.7% |
17.6% / 8.8% |
2.8 / 6.3 |
55 / 65 |
59.5% / 64.2% |
52.7% / 63.1% |
22.4% / 43.5% |
4.6 / 7.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.9% / 52.3% |
30.7 / 19.3 |
3 |
CHI |
15 – 31 L |
-13.9 |
57.4% / 55.9% |
8.5% / 8.8% |
7.0% / 3.2% |
6.1 / 6.1 |
57.1% / 41.7% |
19.0% / 20.8% |
3.3 / 3.8 |
68 / 58 |
61.8% / 46.7% |
57.4% / 50.0% |
25.3% / 28.5% |
5.2 / 5.1 |
2.9% / 0.0% |
30.9% / 41.4% |
28.7 / 36.9 |
4 |
@NYG |
3 – 24 L |
-13.4 |
35.5% / 54.8% |
9.7% / 0.0% |
14.3% / 6.5% |
3.9 / 7.3 |
23.5% / 48.6% |
17.6% / 18.9% |
3.2 / 4.4 |
48 / 68 |
35.1% / 49.1% |
31.3% / 51.5% |
41.5% / 48.8% |
3.7 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 2.9% |
35.4% / 54.4% |
25.9 / 26.8 |
5 |
NE |
7 – 33 L |
-9.4 |
30.3% / 48.9% |
18.2% / 8.5% |
3.7% / 2.3% |
2.3 / 6.6 |
45.0% / 44.4% |
15.0% / 25.9% |
7.3 / 4.8 |
53 / 74 |
42.9% / 51.7% |
35.8% / 47.3% |
50.5% / 49.3% |
4.2 / 6.0 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
37.7% / 36.5% |
23.8 / 32.4 |
6 |
@MIA |
17 – 16 W |
6.1 |
40.0% / 33.3% |
0.0% / 10.4% |
0.0% / 4.7% |
6.6 / 3.9 |
45.5% / 52.4% |
18.2% / 19.0% |
4.4 / 4.0 |
58 / 69 |
50.0% / 42.3% |
43.1% / 39.1% |
42.8% / 28.0% |
5.4 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
56.9% / 30.4% |
27.3 / 28.3 |
7 |
SF |
0 – 9 L |
-1.5 |
26.7% / 34.8% |
20.0% / 8.7% |
0.0% / 4.8% |
3.3 / 6.3 |
38.5% / 46.2% |
23.1% / 25.6% |
4.0 / 3.5 |
41 / 62 |
35.5% / 40.9% |
34.1% / 41.9% |
38.3% / 41.0% |
3.8 / 4.6 |
2.4% / 0.0% |
63.4% / 62.9% |
23.8 / 32.5 |
8 |
@MIN |
9 – 19 L |
-4.9 |
56.0% / 48.3% |
16.0% / 10.3% |
4.8% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 9.4 |
62.5% / 44.7% |
25.0% / 18.4% |
5.3 / 4.2 |
41 / 67 |
64.7% / 44.9% |
58.5% / 46.3% |
34.7% / 47.7% |
5.3 / 6.5 |
2.4% / 1.5% |
39.0% / 56.7% |
27.1 / 27.0 |
9 |
@BUF |
9 – 24 L |
-8.5 |
34.6% / 45.5% |
15.4% / 9.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.5 / 6.6 |
34.8% / 53.8% |
30.4% / 17.9% |
5.5 / 3.1 |
49 / 61 |
40.5% / 54.5% |
34.7% / 50.8% |
42.8% / 48.9% |
5.0 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
46.9% / 63.9% |
27.3 / 34.9 |
11 |
NYJ |
17 – 34 L |
-14.5 |
34.1% / 51.5% |
14.6% / 6.1% |
2.9% / 3.2% |
4.2 / 8.6 |
45.0% / 45.5% |
35.0% / 24.2% |
2.7 / 3.5 |
61 / 66 |
38.6% / 51.0% |
37.7% / 48.5% |
57.8% / 43.0% |
3.7 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
32.8% / 50.0% |
34.6 / 35.3 |
12 |
DET |
19 – 16 W |
2.2 |
33.3% / 35.9% |
9.1% / 15.4% |
3.3% / 9.1% |
4.4 / 4.8 |
33.3% / 53.1% |
16.7% / 15.6% |
3.6 / 5.5 |
57 / 71 |
36.6% / 44.6% |
33.3% / 43.7% |
49.6% / 37.4% |
4.0 / 5.1 |
1.8% / 1.4% |
42.1% / 45.1% |
30.8 / 32.1 |
13 |
@CAR |
29 – 21 W |
-1.9 |
33.3% / 39.6% |
16.7% / 13.2% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
3.8 / 4.0 |
66.7% / 30.0% |
20.0% / 30.0% |
8.3 / 3.3 |
60 / 73 |
56.3% / 38.2% |
50.0% / 37.0% |
64.9% / 29.9% |
6.0 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
50.0% / 27.4% |
33.8 / 24.8 |
14 |
@GB |
15 – 20 L |
-9.0 |
35.5% / 43.8% |
12.9% / 12.5% |
3.7% / 0.0% |
4.5 / 5.2 |
60.7% / 60.7% |
25.0% / 17.9% |
4.3 / 6.2 |
59 / 60 |
51.1% / 57.1% |
47.5% / 51.7% |
37.4% / 54.5% |
4.4 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
47.5% / 46.7% |
21.5 / 34.0 |
15 |
PHI |
27 – 31 L |
1.4 |
53.6% / 53.3% |
0.0% / 4.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.3 / 5.7 |
47.8% / 57.1% |
26.1% / 10.7% |
4.4 / 5.6 |
51 / 73 |
53.7% / 50.9% |
51.0% / 54.8% |
46.1% / 30.8% |
7.1 / 5.7 |
2.0% / 1.4% |
45.1% / 38.4% |
29.0 / 21.5 |
16 |
NYG |
35 – 41 L |
-7.5 |
51.2% / 53.5% |
7.3% / 2.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.9 / 8.0 |
38.5% / 50.0% |
23.1% / 19.2% |
3.1 / 7.9 |
67 / 69 |
43.4% / 50.9% |
46.3% / 52.2% |
42.1% / 60.7% |
5.4 / 8.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.8% / 37.7% |
31.0 / 23.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
NYG |
35 – 17 W |
11.2 |
71.9% / 55.1% |
0.0% / 2.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
12.7 / 6.5 |
36.7% / 70.6% |
16.7% / 11.8% |
3.0 / 8.9 |
62 / 66 |
56.0% / 67.3% |
54.8% / 59.1% |
50.6% / 41.7% |
8.0 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 3.0% |
48.4% / 25.8% |
23.6 / 21.1 |
2 |
@WAS |
31 – 21 W |
4.6 |
61.3% / 57.9% |
3.2% / 2.6% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
8.4 / 5.5 |
64.7% / 41.2% |
8.8% / 17.6% |
6.3 / 2.8 |
65 / 55 |
64.2% / 59.5% |
63.1% / 52.7% |
43.5% / 22.4% |
7.3 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
52.3% / 30.9% |
19.3 / 30.7 |
3 |
MIA |
31 – 6 W |
11.1 |
48.5% / 40.9% |
3.0% / 6.8% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 4.8 |
67.6% / 37.5% |
2.9% / 29.2% |
6.9 / 3.0 |
67 / 68 |
60.7% / 46.0% |
58.2% / 39.7% |
56.9% / 31.4% |
7.1 / 4.2 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
50.7% / 35.3% |
26.1 / 28.7 |
4 |
@NO |
10 – 12 L |
-1.2 |
44.1% / 42.9% |
2.9% / 14.3% |
3.0% / 3.3% |
6.2 / 4.3 |
45.0% / 59.3% |
15.0% / 18.5% |
2.3 / 4.3 |
54 / 62 |
43.9% / 52.1% |
44.4% / 50.0% |
26.1% / 34.6% |
4.8 / 4.3 |
3.7% / 0.0% |
37.0% / 43.5% |
23.1 / 33.3 |
5 |
GB |
24 – 34 L |
-14.0 |
53.2% / 41.7% |
6.4% / 5.6% |
6.8% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 6.0 |
66.7% / 55.2% |
14.3% / 17.2% |
5.8 / 4.1 |
68 / 65 |
61.7% / 54.9% |
57.4% / 47.7% |
62.3% / 52.5% |
8.3 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.9% / 44.6% |
23.1 / 31.7 |
6 |
@NYJ |
22 – 24 L |
-7.9 |
56.1% / 55.9% |
2.4% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
6.6 / 9.6 |
47.1% / 30.0% |
23.5% / 10.0% |
3.8 / 2.8 |
75 / 54 |
50.9% / 54.8% |
52.0% / 46.3% |
22.1% / 56.8% |
5.3 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.3% / 37.0% |
26.7 / 25.3 |
7 |
PHI |
37 – 10 W |
15.2 |
60.0% / 44.8% |
10.0% / 10.3% |
3.7% / 3.8% |
7.1 / 5.8 |
44.4% / 42.9% |
16.7% / 21.4% |
5.3 / 4.1 |
66 / 57 |
49.0% / 45.7% |
51.5% / 43.9% |
39.6% / 47.0% |
6.1 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 5.3% |
54.5% / 49.1% |
41.7 / 18.8 |
9 |
@NYG |
37 – 18 W |
1.1 |
54.3% / 37.0% |
0.0% / 10.9% |
2.9% / 2.4% |
7.3 / 3.7 |
70.0% / 59.1% |
16.7% / 18.2% |
5.7 / 4.5 |
65 / 68 |
64.8% / 45.1% |
61.5% / 44.1% |
38.7% / 41.0% |
6.6 / 4.0 |
1.5% / 2.9% |
46.2% / 32.4% |
30.7 / 36.3 |
10 |
MIN |
24 – 28 L |
-5.3 |
54.2% / 63.6% |
2.1% / 3.0% |
2.1% / 0.0% |
8.2 / 6.4 |
40.9% / 50.0% |
22.7% / 19.4% |
2.3 / 4.3 |
70 / 69 |
49.1% / 55.6% |
50.0% / 56.5% |
45.1% / 44.5% |
6.3 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.4% / 52.2% |
27.3 / 22.7 |
11 |
@DET |
35 – 27 W |
2.6 |
59.6% / 41.4% |
2.1% / 10.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.2 / 6.6 |
45.8% / 57.1% |
12.5% / 21.4% |
3.1 / 4.3 |
71 / 57 |
56.4% / 51.2% |
54.9% / 49.1% |
41.7% / 63.1% |
7.2 / 5.5 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
33.8% / 49.1% |
20.5 / 29.0 |
12 |
@NE |
9 – 13 L |
-4.1 |
36.4% / 35.9% |
0.0% / 5.1% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 4.6 |
53.8% / 44.4% |
15.4% / 22.2% |
4.2 / 3.7 |
59 / 66 |
53.3% / 46.0% |
44.1% / 39.4% |
32.1% / 66.0% |
5.4 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.1% / 40.9% |
20.8 / 41.4 |
13 |
BUF |
15 – 26 L |
-4.9 |
50.9% / 51.7% |
7.5% / 13.8% |
2.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 8.0 |
36.8% / 44.1% |
21.1% / 32.4% |
5.4 / 3.6 |
72 / 63 |
46.4% / 47.8% |
47.2% / 47.6% |
33.6% / 44.7% |
5.9 / 5.7 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
26.4% / 54.0% |
23.5 / 33.1 |
14 |
@CHI |
24 – 31 L |
-6.8 |
49.0% / 48.5% |
3.9% / 6.1% |
0.0% / 3.2% |
6.4 / 7.0 |
45.5% / 50.0% |
13.6% / 23.5% |
3.7 / 4.4 |
73 / 67 |
50.0% / 49.1% |
47.9% / 49.3% |
39.5% / 45.3% |
5.6 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
30.1% / 50.7% |
21.0 / 40.1 |
15 |
LA |
44 – 21 W |
16.2 |
47.8% / 51.9% |
0.0% / 3.7% |
0.0% / 1.9% |
9.2 / 4.9 |
66.7% / 28.6% |
13.3% / 50.0% |
5.8 / 1.6 |
68 / 68 |
62.3% / 50.9% |
60.3% / 47.1% |
55.6% / 18.7% |
7.0 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
66.2% / 20.6% |
30.3 / 26.4 |
16 |
@PHI |
9 – 17 L |
-6.4 |
43.5% / 51.2% |
4.3% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 7.6 |
43.8% / 53.3% |
31.3% / 20.0% |
3.4 / 3.9 |
62 / 71 |
50.0% / 56.4% |
43.5% / 52.1% |
26.4% / 41.3% |
5.0 / 6.1 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
25.8% / 42.3% |
26.1 / 28.0 |