Washington Redskins @

Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Dec 29
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 111
Odds: Dallas Cowboys -12, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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Note: Dallas was a released to subscribers as a Best Bet when the line was -11 but I still like the Cowboys even with Dak Prescott’s shoulder injury.

Best Bet – *DALLAS (-11) over Washington

This line is too low because the narrative is that the Cowboys quit on Jason Garrett and the public seems to believe Case Keenum is a major upgrade over Dwayne Haskins. However, the market does not seem to be accounting for all of the crucial Redskins injuries. Washington’s secondary will play without all five opening day starters plus four other backups will be out. If safety Troy Apke (questionable) is unable to suit up, none of the Redskins starters in the secondary will have played more than 100 snaps this season. Furthermore, Washington won’t have their best edge rusher Ryan Kerrigan again, which leaves interior defender Matt Ioannidis as the only pass rushing threat in a difficult matchup. Ioannidis has a 14% pass rush win rate (9th) but he will be neutralized by right guard Zack Martin, who has yet to concede a sack and is on track for another All-Pro season. Dallas won’t have left tackle Tyron Smith or left guard Xavier Su’a-Filo, but none of the Redskins pass rushers on that side will be able to take advantage.

Washington’s offense will also be missing some important players. Right guard Brandon Scherff (out) ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency and backup Wes Martin has no chance of staying in front of interior defender Michael Bennett, who ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency. Terry McLaurin has been the Redskins only receiving threat with tight ends Vernon Davis and Jordan Reed out most of the year, but the rookie wide receiver is out on Sunday. McLaurin gained 2.05 yards per route run (12th) while remaining wide receivers Kelvin Harmon and Steven Sims rank 73rd and 75th respectively in yards per route run.

The Cowboys offense is underrated after facing four-straight defenses ranked in the top 10 in yards allowed per play and then facing the Eagles last week with Dak Prescott’s shoulder injury. Dallas is still leading the league with 6.5 yards per play and the offense will move the ball against Washington’s defensive backups even though I don’t think Prescott is fully healthy. The Cowboys ground game ranks 4th and the Redskins have the 25th-rated rush defense, so Prescott won’t need to throw as often for the Cowboys to move the ball. The loss of Scherff and McLaurin more than offsets any potential upgrade Keenum provides over Haskins and I don’t see how Washington’s offense can reach 20 points in this game. I’m making a 3.5-point adjustment for Prescott’s shoulder and the left side of the offensive line injuries, but our model still favors Dallas by 14.3 with a predicted total of 47.0 points. Dallas is a 1-Star Best Bet at -12.5 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Redskins
  • Cowboys


  • Pass Plays 32.7 36.7
  • Succ Pass Plays 41.8% 47.7%
  • Sack Rate 10.2% 7.7%
  • Int Rate 2.6% 2.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.8% 16.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 37.4% 42.4%
  • NYPP 5.2 6.6


  • Rush Plays 22.5 30.5
  • RB YPR 4.2 4.5
  • Stuff Rate 22.3% 19.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.7% 49.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 40.8% 42.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.7


  • All Snaps 55.1 67.1
  • Early Down Succ 47.6% 48.9%
  • Succ Rate 43.8% 48.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 42.4% 42.3%
  • Yards Per Play 5.0 5.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.0 29.7
  • Run Ratio 41.3% 45.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.9 29.3
  • Game Control -5.0 5.0
  • Points 16.7 25.5
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