Game Analysis
1-Star Best Bet – *Washington (+9.5) over GREEN BAY
1-Star Best Bet – *Over (47)
The pendulum has swung a little too far on Washington’s defense after surrendering a league-worst 31.0 points per game through the first 6 weeks. Washington is allowing 6.0 yppl (24th) and we have them rated as an average defense after adding in the prior. Washington’s talent on defense ranked 10th coming into the year according to our numbers and they will not be one of the worst defenses in the NFL at the end of the season. Aaron Rodgers’ 6.5% sack rate is the highest since Matt Lafleur arrived in Green Bay and he won’t be comfortable on Sunday as Washington’s defense has a 26.8% pressure rate (10th).
Washington’s offensive line ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency and held up last week without starting RG Brandon Scherff and RT Samuel Cosmi. Backup guard Wes Schweitzer is allowing a 4.3% pressure rate and backup tackle Cornelius Lucas has conceded just one pressure in 79 pass blocking snaps. Taylor Heinicke should have time to look downfield for Terry McLaurin, who has 14 targets on passes with 20+ air yards (2nd). Green Bay’s defense will be without Pro Bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander and starting safety Darnell Savage is in concussion protocol and McLaurin should find some open space down the field.
Our model favors the Packers by just 5.8 points, with a predicted total of 50.8 points. I mentioned the market’s overreaction to the first 6 games and Washington applies to a 125-69-4 ATS contrary situation that plays on losing teams with a sub-.300 spread percentage against a good team with a greater than .600 ATS record. Washington is a 1-Star Best Bet at +8.5 or more (Strong Opinion at +8). The total on this game has come down enough to now play the Over as a 1-Star Best Bet at 47 points or less (Strong Opinion over 47.5).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.86
41.71
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.3%
52.0%
-
Sack Rate
4.0%
5.4%
-
Int Rate
2.9%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.8%
18.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.3%
33.4%
-
NYPP
6.59
7.21
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.00
26.29
-
RB YPR
4.13
3.27
-
Stuff Rate
18.0%
26.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
58.0%
40.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.4%
46.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.55
4.02
Game
-
All Snaps
61.86
68.00
-
Early Down Succ
55.2%
46.8%
-
Succ Rate
50.7%
47.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.0%
37.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.57
5.99
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.84
27.74
-
Run Ratio
42.6%
38.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-5.40
5.40
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.00
36.71
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.6%
49.9%
-
Sack Rate
7.2%
6.6%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.9%
16.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.5%
31.9%
-
NYPP
6.78
5.81
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.57
24.86
-
RB YPR
3.97
4.21
-
Stuff Rate
21.8%
17.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.9%
58.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.3%
41.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.11
4.76
Game
-
All Snaps
59.57
61.57
-
Early Down Succ
48.1%
57.0%
-
Succ Rate
46.1%
52.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.1%
35.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.66
5.36
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.58
29.24
-
Run Ratio
40.8%
40.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
1.83
-1.83
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
LAC |
16 – 20 L |
-1.99 |
40.9% / 55.1% |
4.5% / 4.1% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
6.05 / 6.82 |
70.4% / 41.4% |
18.5% / 37.9% |
4.67 / 3.10 |
49 / 78 |
63.2% / 43.9% |
57.1% / 50.0% |
23.4% / 24.1% |
5.29 / 5.44 |
2.0% / 1.3% |
55.1% / 37.2% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
2 |
NYG |
30 – 29 W |
-2.22 |
53.2% / 44.4% |
2.1% / 11.1% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
6.81 / 6.33 |
63.6% / 46.4% |
18.2% / 28.6% |
3.95 / 5.82 |
69 / 64 |
61.1% / 50.0% |
56.5% / 45.3% |
32.4% / 45.6% |
5.90 / 6.11 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.9% / 43.8% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
3 |
@BUF |
21 – 43 L |
-13.76 |
42.3% / 63.6% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
8.0% / 0.0% |
9.00 / 8.16 |
41.7% / 51.5% |
29.2% / 24.2% |
3.21 / 3.70 |
50 / 77 |
47.2% / 59.0% |
42.0% / 58.4% |
46.0% / 28.3% |
6.22 / 6.25 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
48.0% / 42.9% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
4 |
@ATL |
34 – 30 W |
-3.58 |
51.5% / 51.2% |
3.0% / 2.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.27 / 6.40 |
53.6% / 39.3% |
21.4% / 21.4% |
4.36 / 3.54 |
61 / 71 |
55.1% / 41.8% |
52.5% / 46.5% |
48.4% / 30.4% |
6.48 / 5.27 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.9% / 39.4% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
5 |
NO |
22 – 33 L |
-3.77 |
41.9% / 40.6% |
4.7% / 6.3% |
4.9% / 3.3% |
5.63 / 8.47 |
51.5% / 30.4% |
18.2% / 21.7% |
3.97 / 4.26 |
76 / 55 |
51.8% / 36.6% |
46.1% / 36.4% |
40.9% / 60.7% |
4.91 / 6.71 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
43.4% / 41.8% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
6 |
KC |
13 – 31 L |
-4.72 |
38.5% / 54.0% |
0.0% / 6.0% |
2.6% / 4.3% |
4.67 / 7.80 |
63.2% / 46.4% |
10.5% / 21.4% |
4.95 / 3.89 |
58 / 78 |
45.5% / 49.1% |
46.6% / 51.3% |
23.6% / 40.7% |
4.76 / 6.40 |
1.7% / 1.3% |
32.8% / 35.9% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
7 |
@GB |
24 – 10 W |
-7.74 |
48.8% / 55.3% |
9.8% / 7.9% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
5.73 / 6.50 |
62.1% / 26.7% |
10.3% / 26.7% |
6.72 / 3.80 |
70 / 53 |
62.3% / 47.4% |
54.3% / 47.2% |
37.6% / 29.9% |
6.14 / 5.74 |
1.4% / 1.9% |
41.4% / 28.3% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NO |
3 – 38 L |
-15.26 |
35.1% / 61.9% |
5.4% / 0.0% |
5.7% / 0.0% |
5.03 / 7.19 |
20.0% / 53.8% |
13.3% / 23.1% |
2.87 / 4.38 |
52 / 60 |
35.1% / 56.3% |
30.8% / 56.7% |
25.8% / 36.0% |
4.40 / 5.37 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
28.8% / 65.0% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
2 |
DET |
35 – 17 W |
3.29 |
60.0% / 54.1% |
10.0% / 2.7% |
0.0% / 2.8% |
7.57 / 6.38 |
41.9% / 57.9% |
25.8% / 10.5% |
3.10 / 5.68 |
61 / 56 |
51.0% / 60.0% |
50.8% / 55.4% |
26.8% / 41.0% |
5.30 / 6.14 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
50.8% / 33.9% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
3 |
@SF |
30 – 28 W |
6.58 |
47.1% / 45.5% |
2.9% / 9.1% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
7.44 / 5.25 |
52.0% / 52.4% |
8.0% / 28.6% |
4.00 / 3.00 |
59 / 65 |
51.1% / 48.0% |
49.2% / 47.7% |
41.0% / 17.2% |
5.98 / 4.52 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
42.4% / 32.3% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
4 |
PIT |
27 – 17 W |
6.20 |
48.7% / 45.2% |
7.7% / 4.8% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
6.05 / 5.24 |
57.6% / 62.5% |
21.2% / 12.5% |
3.97 / 3.88 |
72 / 58 |
52.7% / 56.8% |
52.8% / 50.0% |
43.0% / 32.7% |
5.10 / 4.86 |
1.4% / 1.7% |
45.8% / 27.6% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
5 |
@CIN |
25 – 22 W |
1.94 |
43.9% / 48.8% |
4.9% / 7.3% |
2.6% / 5.3% |
8.12 / 6.44 |
36.4% / 62.5% |
31.8% / 25.0% |
6.05 / 4.29 |
63 / 65 |
44.0% / 59.6% |
41.3% / 53.8% |
63.3% / 39.1% |
7.40 / 5.65 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.9% / 36.9% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
6 |
@CHI |
24 – 14 W |
2.31 |
50.0% / 45.2% |
11.5% / 12.9% |
0.0% / 3.7% |
6.50 / 4.42 |
51.6% / 57.7% |
25.8% / 15.4% |
4.97 / 5.38 |
57 / 57 |
55.3% / 55.8% |
50.9% / 50.9% |
43.8% / 44.6% |
5.67 / 4.86 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
54.4% / 45.6% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
7 |
WAS |
10 – 24 L |
7.74 |
55.3% / 48.8% |
7.9% / 9.8% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
6.50 / 5.73 |
26.7% / 62.1% |
26.7% / 10.3% |
3.80 / 6.72 |
53 / 70 |
47.4% / 62.3% |
47.2% / 54.3% |
29.9% / 37.6% |
5.74 / 6.14 |
1.9% / 1.4% |
28.3% / 41.4% |
0.00 / 0.00 |