Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (43.5) – TAMPA BAY (-3.5) vs Washington

• Washington’s new front office did a horrible job surrounding Jayden Daniels with supporting pieces. The rookie quarterback has the 5th-highest cap hit on the team despite the rookie wage scale. For comparison, Caleb Williams is making more and will be Chicago’s 10th-highest cap hit.
• The Commanders offensive line ranked 25th in pass blocking efficiency last year and they lost their highest graded pass blocker by PFF LT Charles Leno.
• Washington’s starting wide receivers outside of Terry McLaurin are Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus, who combined for just 22 receptions last season.
• The Commanders also let down their rookie quarterback with the coaching staff – hiring offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury (fired by Cardinals), Anthony Lynn at run game coordinator (fired by Chargers/Lions), Brian Johnson at pass game coordinator (fired by Eagles), and Bobby Johnson as offensive line coach (fired by Giants).
• Tampa Bay’s defense was rated a half point worse than average in market last year and it will be slightly worse with the losses of edge rusher Shaq Barrett, cornerback Carlton Davis, and linebacker Devin White. However, Todd Bowles’s unit has ranked above average in points allowed each of the last four seasons and I don’t expect this defense to fall off a cliff.
• The Buccaneers retained All-Pro S Antoine Winfield and former All-Pro LB Lavonte David.
• Tampa Bay’s interior defensive line is great with Calijah Kancey poised for a breakout next to Vita Vea, whose 10.5% run stop rate was a big reason why this defense finished 5th in rush EPA/allowed.
• The Buccaneers offense was 25th in early down EPA/play last season and 3rd on late down EPA/play, which was very fortuitous last season. Baker Mayfield threw the 2nd-most contested passes by our numbers. It’s hard to be consistent playing offense that way and the 3rd down success should regress towards the team’s overall average this season.
• Todd Bowles is going to instruct his new offensive coordinator to establish the run, and it seems like Liam Coen is happy to oblige. “It’s Priority No. 1. It’s always been Priority No. 1 at every stop I’ve been,” Coen said of running the football.
• However, Tampa Bay’s ground game was 2.1 points worse than average according to our numbers last season. They added rookie C Graham Barton and LG Ben Bredson to the offensive line, but I don’t think it’s enough to make a major leap, and they will be inefficient in the run game once again. Bredeson graded 2nd-worst out of 58 qualifying guards in run blocking last season, only ahead of Buccaneers RG Cody Mauch.
• The Commanders surrendered a league-high 30.5 points per game in 2023 and made some major changes bringing in 7 new starters.
• Two of the players retained on Washington’s defense were the main dominating force of the unit, defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne, who combined for 84 pressures last season. Washington’s interior defensive linemen will wreak havoc on the inside versus Bredson, Mauch, and the rookie center.
• The Commanders also brought in two new linebackers in Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner, who has been All-Pro 10 straight years. Washington’s defense will shut down a Tampa Bay offense that is focusing too much on running the ball.
• Our mode favors the Buccaneers by 5.2 points, with a predicted total of 40.3 points, but Washington applies to a 71-28-3 ATS week 1 angle.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 43 points or more.