Game Analysis

TAMPA BAY (-3) vs Washington

Strong Opinion – Bucky Irving (TB) Over 90.5 Rushing Yards (Constraint is 93.5)

• Baker Mayfield averaged a career-high 7.0 yppp in his first season with offensive coordinator Liam Coen.
• Tampa Bay’s offense excelled in the quick game as Mayfield led the NFL with 27 passing TDs within 2.5 seconds of the snap.
• However, Mayfield averaged -1.05 EPA per play on throws at or behind the line of scrimmage in week 18 against the Saints and I believe the Commanders can replicate the game plan to stop the Buccaneers’ quick game.
• New Orleans was allowing -0.04 EPA/target to opposing running backs (8th) and Washington’s defense is even better conceding -0.11 EPA/target to opposing running backs (4th).
• The Saints have the 7th-highest Cover 1 rate and the Commanders have the 2nd-highest Cover 1 rate. Mayfield’s yppp against Cover 1 is just 89% of his yppp versus other coverages (26th).
• Buccaneers’ WR Mike Evans has the 8th in target rate when facing man coverage and Mayfield would like to look in Evans’s direction when he sees Cover 1, but he will be in an all too familiar struggle on Sunday.
• Washington’s defense only got two regular season starts from CB Marshon Lattimore after trading for him before the deadline but he will be on the field for the playoffs and he has a massive history of shutting down Mike Evans when he was with the Saints. Evans is averaging just 45.4 yards in 14 games when Lattimore has been on the field since 2017.
• Lattimore is a major upgrade for this Commanders’ defense as he is conceding only 0.46 yards per cover snap in 9 games this season compared to CB Benjamin St-Juste, who will be heading to the bench and is allowing 1.32 yards per cover snap.
• Tampa Bay can’t move Evans into the slot to get a more favorable matchup than Lattimore because Washington nickelback Noah Igbinoghene has a 62% lockdown rate (2nd).
• Lattimore isn’t the only late-season boost for the Commanders’ defense. DT Jonathan Allen only played half the year but he is back on the field as well. Allen has a 9.7% pressure rate compared to backup interior defender Sheldon Day’s 3.8% pressure rate.
• I expect the Buccaneers’ offense to move the ball more effectively on the ground than through the air. Tampa Bay’s offense has a 44% rush success rate (6th) and Washington’s defense ranks 27th in EPA/rush allowed. Buccaneers’ RB Bucky Irving led the NFL averaging 4.03 yards after contact per carry and forced 0.28 missed tackles per rush.
• Jayden Daniels averaged 0.20 EPA/play this year, which is the best rookie season since 2016.
• However, this is not the ideal matchup for Daniels’s playoff debut. The Commanders’ offense is better against man-heavy defenses because there are more running lanes for Daniels to scramble and he can throw downfield shots to WR Terry McLaurin, who had a league-high 24 contested catches.
• Washington’s yards per attempt against zone is just 89% of the yards per attempt against man coverage (25th) and Tampa Bay’s defense has an 86% zone coverage rate (2nd).
• The Buccaneers are getting back starting safeties Antoine Winfield and Mike Edwards for the postseason after the duo missed 18 games combined this year. Winfield and Edwards will contain Commanders TE Zach Ertz, who has a 60% success rate (4th).
• Washington’s offense will need the rushing attack humming in this game. The Commanders have a 46% rush success rate (3rd) but the Buccaneers are allowing a -0.15 EPA/rush (7th).
• Tampa Bay is the league’s only defense to concede fewer than 500 rushing yards to opposing running backs in the second half of the season. Daniels had 16 carries in week 1 versus Todd Bowles’ defense and he’s going to need to put the ground game on his back again this week.
• Our model favors the Buccaneers by 1.6 points, with a predicted total of 51.4 points.