Game Analysis

SAN FRANCISCO (-7) vs Washington

· The 49ers have a 43% rush success rate (10th) but Washington’s defense is allowing only -0.199 EPA/rush (3rd) and the pressure will be on rookie QB Brock Purdy to move the ball on Saturday.

· San Francisco tight end George Kittle caught four of his five targets for 93 yards and two touchdowns in last Thursday night’s game, but he will be limited this week by a Commanders defense conceding only 5.7 yards per target to tight ends (5th).

· Purdy also will likely not have as many successful throws to Christian McCaffrey, who leads all running backs averaging 1.83 yards per route run. Washington’s defense is allowing just 4.8 yards per target to RBs (4th).

· Commanders’ interior defender Jonathan Allen ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency and he will line up across from San Francisco’s worth offensive lineman Aaron Banks, who has surrendered a team-high 25 pressures this season at left guard.

· The 49ers are allowing just a 35% rush success rate (2nd) and they will contain running back Brian Robinson, who ran for 7.4 yards per carry last Sunday night.

· Taylor Heinicke will air it out to WR Terry McLaurin, who is gaining 0.42 EPA/target (16th). McLaurin will not have to line up across from 49ers cornerback Charvarius Ward (out with a muscle strain). Instead, he will get snaps versus backup CB Janoris Jenkins.

· Ward shadowed Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf in the first three quarters last week before leaving the game and forced 3 tight windows on 6 targets. Ward has forced the highest tight window target rate (34.6%) since entering the league in 2018 according to Next Gen Stats and he is worth a half point to San Francisco’s defense.

· Washington RT Cornelius Lucas has a 9.5% pressure rate allowed rate and will not be able to block edge defender Nick Bosa, who ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency.

· Our model favors the 49ers by 5.7 points, with a predicted total of 36.0 points.