Game Analysis

PHILADELPHIA (-4) vs Washington

• The Commanders have a 38% blitz rate (7th-highest) and Eagles’ new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has not solved Jalen Hurts struggles against the blitz entirely. Hurts yards per attempt versus the blitz is just 86% his yards per attempt against a standard pass rush (27th).
• However, Philadelphia’s offense is averaging 12% more yards per attempt against man-coverage than zone (5th) and Washington’s defense has a 34% man coverage rate (6th-highest).
• Hurts will throw Go routes to Eagles wide receiver AJ Brown, who is averaging 3.74 yards per route run versus man coverage since the start of last season. Commanders CB Benjamin St-Juste is surrendering 1.59 yards per route run (6th-worst) and will struggle across from Brown.
• Washington nickelback Noah Igbinoghene is conceding 0.98 yards per cover snap in the slot (8th) and he will limit WR DeVonta Smith, who is averaging 0.53 EPA/target (9th).
• Philadelphia LT Jordan Mailata will suit up on Thursday night for his first game since week 6 when he had a hamstring injury. Mailata ranked 13th in pass blocking efficiency and backup Fred Johnson was surrendering a 17% pressure rate. Mailata will contain Commanders’ edge defender Dante Fowler, who ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency.
• Eagles RT Lane Johnson has allowed league-low 4 pressures and he will shut down edge defender Dorance Armstrong, who ranks 14th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Washington interior defender Daron Payne has 24 pressures (17th) and he will be the main pass-rushing danger across from RG Mekhi Becton, who ranks 6th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Philadelphia’s offense is averaging 0.02 EPA/rush (5th) and RB Saquon Barkley leads the NFL with 24 runs over 10 yards. The Eagles’ ground game has a favorable matchup as the Commanders’ defense is allowing a 43% rush success rate (25th).
• Washington TE Zach Ertz 56% success rate (7th) but he will be limited as Philadelphia’s defense is allowing only -0.14 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (4th).
• Jayden Daniels will instead go downfield when he has the protection. Commanders’ C Tyler Biadasz and RG Sam Cosmi rank 6th and 11th respectively in pass-blocking efficiency and the duo will limit interior defender Jalen Carter, who has 32 pressures (7th).
• Our model favors the Eagles by 2.2 points, with a predicted total of 53.0 points, but favorites tend to cover on Thursday nights – Thursday favorites of 2 points or more are 149-115-7 ATS since 1991 as long as their opponent is not off a bye week – and Philly applies to a 41-13-1 ATS Thursday situation.
• The model likes the over but this game applies to an 834-635-19 Under situation.