Game Analysis

PHILADELPHIA (-8) vs Washington

· The NFL record for sacks taken in a season is 76. Sam Howell is on pace for 107 sacks. A league-low 68% of Howell’s dropbacks end up targeting a receiver. The rest result in a sack, throw away, batted pass, or scramble.

· The Eagles led the NFL with an 11.1% sack rate last year, but have just a 4.7% sack rate this season (25th). Philadelphia’s pass rush just hasn’t been as strong with just a 33% pressure rate (20th).

· The Eagles are surrendering 8.5 yards per target to tight ends (29th) and Commanders will hope to have TE Logan Thomas clear concussion protocol.

· Washington’s defense is allowing just 3.4 yards per target to tight ends (4th) and they will shut down TE Dallas Goedert.

· Commanders’ CB Kendall Fuller ranks 2nd in coverage grade by PFF and he will limit WR DeVonta Smith, who is averaging 0.48 EPA/target (17th).

· I expect another healthy dose of throws heading towards Philadelphia All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown, who had 131 yards from 14 targets last game.

· Washington edge defender Montez Sweat is 9th in pass-rushing efficiency but he will be contained by All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson.

· Eagles LG Landon Dickerson is banged up with a knee contusion and he could struggle across from interior defender Jonathan Allen, who has 13 pressures (3rd).

· Philadelphia lost this home game against Washington last season as 10.5-point favorites. We think they are justifiably less than double-digit favorites in this game.

· Our model favors the Eagles by 7.7 points, with a predicted total of 45.2 points.