Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – 6-point Teaser (-120) – Washington (+8.5) with Chicago (-1.5)

Lean – Washington (+2.5) over NY GIANTS

Lean – Under (46.5)

• Jayden Daniels is going to sit this week, and it will be Marcus Mariota starting on Sunday. Mariota is averaging 6.3 yppp this season compared to Daniels, averaging 5.7 yppp.
• Washington’s offense will be without TE Zach Ertz, who is averaging 1.37 yards per route run (10th).
• I expect the Commanders to focus on the ground game. Washington’s offense has a 43.7% rush success rate (9th), and New York’s defense is allowing a league-high 0.17 EPA/rush.
• Giants edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux will be out again this week. Thibodeaux has a 0.8% pressure rate compared to backup Chauncey Golston with a 2.3% pressure rate.
• Jaxson Dart is coming off the bye to go against a Commanders defense surrendering a 50.9% dropback success rate (30th).
• Our model favors the Giants by 1.7 points, with a predicted total of 45.4 points.
• The line is fair, but Washington applies to a very strong 175-75-3 ATS situation (and this game applies to an 866-663-20 Under situation).

Strong Opinion – 6-point Teaser (-120) – Washington (+8.5) with Chicago (-1.5), at +7.5 and -2.5 or better.