Game Analysis

Washington (-4) vs NY GIANTS

• The Giants are surrendering a league-high 5.4 yards per carry, and they will not be able to contain Washington’s ground game as the Commanders are averaging 0.05 EPA/rush (3rd).
• Washington center Tyler Biadasz ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency, and he will limit interior defender Dexter Lawrence, who has 32 pressures (3rd).
• Washington’s pass rush has not dropped off without starting DT Jonathan Allen as the Commanders have a 55% pressure rate in the last two games. Washington edge defender Dorance Armstrong ranks 9th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he was back on the field last week.
• The Giants haven’t solved the loss of LT Andrew Thomas. New York started newly signed Chris Hubbard last week hoping he would be better than Joshua Ezeudu but Hubbard surrendered 12 pressures in Pittsburgh. Commanders edge defender Dante Fowler ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency and will wreak havoc across from Hubbard.
• Giants RG Greg Van Roten ranks 13th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will struggle across from interior defender Daron Payne, who has 23 pressures (8th).
• New York’s yppp against Cover 2 is only 81% of the yppp versus other coverages (29th) and Daniel Jones will struggle as Washington’s defense has the 5th-highest Cover 2 rate.
• The Giants’ only hope on offense is Malik Nabers averaging 0.44 EPA/target (19th) and in a favorable matchup across from CB Benjamin St-Juste, who is surrendering 1.51 yards per cover snap ranking 63rd out of 73 qualifying cornerbacks. Nabers had a season-high 127 yards on 18 targets against the Commanders in week 2.
• Our model makes Washington an 8.9-point favorite, with a predicted total of 47.2 points, but New York applies to a 100-29-2 ATS contrary indicator. I used Washington in my spread pool despite the strong angle, as the matchups favoring Washington in addition to the line value.