Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Washington (+2.5 -105) over MIAMI

1-Star Best Bet 6-point Teaser (-120) – Washington (+8.5) with Baltimore (-1.5) at +7.5 and -2.5 or better

Lean – Over (47.5)

• The Commanders will be without two starting cornerbacks and three starting defensive linemen in this game, while the Dolphins are down two starters on the offensive line, wide receiver Tyreek Hill, likely cornerback Rasul Douglas, and traded away edge defender Jaelan Phillips, who has 38 pressures (10th).
• Washington and Miami are both allowing a 47% success rate this season, but our metrics have the Dolphins’ defense rated a half point better, given the current available personnel.
• However, the Commanders clearly have a better offense than the Dolphins. Marcus Mariota is averaging 0.07 EPA/play while Tua Tagovailoa is averaging 0.02 EPA/play.
• Mariota has a favorable matchup against Miami’s defense with the 2nd-highest cover 2 rate. Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s spread sets force defenders to cover wide areas and cover 2’s zone structure can struggle to account for multiple receivers flooding short zones. Bubble screens, quick outs, and jet motion stress the flat defenders, creating mismatches, and the Commanders are averaging 33% more yppp versus cover 2 compared to other coverages (4th).
• Washington also has a decided advantage on the ground with a 44.6% rush success rate (6th) compared to Miami’s 36.5% rush success rate (26th).
• The Commanders have a stronger offense, and the Dolphins have a stronger defense. I think the market has unjustifiably strayed away from a pick ’em game on a neutral site in Madrid and the situation strongly favors the Commanders.
• Washington’s 5 game straight up and spread losing streak is why there is value playing on them this week and the Commanders apply to a 52-6 ATS situation that plays on teams on a 5-games or more spread losing streak. Washington also applies to a 133-57-6 ATS blowout bounce-back situation based on last week’s 22-point loss to Detroit. Miami, meanwhile, applies to a 25-73-3 ATS letdown situation that applies to teams coming off an upset win as a big dog over a division foe.
• Our model favors the Commanders by 2.2 point, with a predicted total of 49.1 points, and the situation strongly favors Washington.

Washington is a 1-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.

1-Star Best Bet 6-point Teaser (-120) – Washington (+8.5) with Baltimore (-1.5) at +7.5 and -2.5 or better.