Game Analysis

LA CHARGERS (-2.5/-3) vs Washington

• Los Angeles went into last week without starting LT Rashawn Slater and RG Mekhi Becton and lost their other starting tackle Joe Alt early in the contest. After that, the offensive line struggled to hold up against New York’s pass rush. Justin Herbert was pressured on 46% of his dropbacks.
• Chargers’ backup tackle Trey Pipkins is already bad as he’s surrendered 16 pressures (3rd-most), and third string tackle Austin Deculus will struggle against Commanders’ edge rusher Dorance Armstrong, who has 16 pressures (19th).
• Los Angeles starter Joe Alt ranked 4th in pass blocking efficiency and Deculus is a point worse by our numbers.
• Chargers right guard Mehki Becton should be back on the field this week to limit interior defender Daron Payne, who ranks 12th in pass rushing efficiency.
• Jayden Daniels will be back at the helm on Sunday but it could be tough sledding in his first game back. Washington’s offense is targeting WRs on 69% of passes (5th-most) and the Chargers are allowing a league-low 38% success rate to wide receivers.
• Furthermore, the Commanders top WR Terry McLaurin will likely be out and he has a 60% separation rate (6th).
• Washington RT Josh Conerly 9th-worst pass blocking efficiency and the rookie will struggle versus edge defender Tuli Tuipulotu, who has 4.0 sacks (6th).
• Our model favors the Chargers by 2.7 points with a predicted total of 48.9 points.