Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Over (38) – DENVER (-3.5) vs Washington

· The first game of the Russell Wilson and Sean Payton duo resulted in an average of just 4.6 yards per pass play but they moved the chains on 83% of their opportunities, which was the 3rd-highest among week 1 offenses.

· It was no surprise to see Wilson average only 4.1 air yards per attempt (30th) as Payton likes to work the underneath routes and the Broncos will likely be getting their best underneath receiver back on the field this week. Jerry Jeudy’s 2.14 yards per route run in the slot ranked 5th in the league last season. Jeudy missed week 1 with a hamstring but practiced all week and should be good to go for this game.

· Commanders CB Emmanuel Forbes surrendered 1.50 yards per cover snap in week 1 and Russell Wilson will likely have some downfield sideline throws attacking the rookie with WR Courtland Sutton.

· Denver’s new LG Ben Powers did not allow a single pressure in his debut for the team, and he will limit Washington interior defender Jonathan Allen, who ranked 13th in pass-rushing efficiency last season.

· Broncos Lloyd Cushenberry was one of 8 centers to not allow a single pressure in week 1 and he’ll tag team with RG Quinn Meinerz to slow down Commanders Pro Bowl DT Daron Payne.

· Denver’s defense allowed a 17% rush success rate (2nd) last week and I expect Washington’s game plan will be to have Sam Howell throw the ball a lot.

· Howell had 10 targets to tight ends in week 1 and new Broncos DC Vance Joseph’s defense surrendered 8.4 yards per target to TEs (28th) In Arizona last season.

· Denver’s defense is overrated after losing excellent coordinator Ejiro Evero in the offseason. The Raiders earned a first down on 82% of their opportunities in week 1 (4th-highest)

· Our model favors the Broncos by 4.7 points, with a predicted total of 41.1 points. The Over is a Strong Opinion at 38.5 points or less.