Washington Commanders @

Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Oct 2
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 267
Odds: Dallas Cowboys -3, Total: 41

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Washington (+3.5 -115) over DALLAS

· Cooper Rush finished with the fourth-quickest time-to-throw among week 3 quarterbacks (2.23 seconds) and I believe defenses are going to catch up to the backup quarterback’s limitations. Washington should be able to key into some of these quick game designs from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and Rush is unlikely to continue to gain the 7.0 yppp he’s averaged since the start of last season.

· Rush has great chemistry with Cowboys inside WR Noah Brown, who is averaging 2.87 yards per route run in slot (2nd). However, I think the Rush-Brown connection cools off this week because Washington nickelback Benjamin St-Juste is allowing only 0.50 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd).

· St-Juste will also play a role in limiting CeeDee Lamb, who has seen 16 of his 32 targets lined up in the slot. The Commanders will likely get starting cornerback William Jackson back on the field to contain Lamb when he’s lined up on the outside.

· Washington has scored on only 24% of drives (31st). Carson Wentz has seen a 37% pressure rate (9th-worst) which is unlikely to improve on Sunday, but Washington’s offensive coordinator Scott Turner might have an answer with the screen game.

· Dallas edge rushers Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence have 7.0 total sacks while Commanders RT Samuel Cosmi ranks 50th out of 57 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency. I think the Dallas pass rush can be neutralized by Washington’s screen game. The Commanders running backs have a 25% target share (7th-highest). Wentz will get the ball out fast to running backs JD McKissic and Antonio Gibson in this matchup. The Cowboys are allowing 7.3 yards per target to RBs (27th) so the quick throws to the running backs should work.

· Terry McLaurin finished last season with ten receptions with 20+ air yards (10th) and Dallas cornerback Trevon Diggs is one of the most aggressive gamblers in the NFL.

· Our model has the Cowboys by just 0.4 points, with a predicted total of 39.2 points, and the Commanders apply to a 99-30-1 ATS bounce-back situation after getting whipped at home by the Eagles last week.

Washington is a Strong Opinion at +3 -110 odds or better.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Commanders
  • Cowboys


  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00


  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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