Game Analysis

BALTIMORE (-6.5) vs Washington

• The Commanders are averaging 0.87 EPA/play on late downs as Jayden Daniels always seems to find a way to convert. However, that level of late down success is completely unprecedented The next highest offense in the league is the Texans, who are averaging 0.37 EPA/late down. The Cowboys led the NFL averaging 0.39 EPA/late down last season and it’s very likely that Washington’s 3^rd and 4^th down success will regress going forward.
• Baltimore’s defense is allowing a league-low 26.5% rush success rate, and they will contain Washington’s ground game, which is leading the NFL with 0.16 EPA/rush.
• Commanders’ TE Zach Ertz has a 56% success rate (7th) and he has a favorable matchup as the Ravens defense is allowing 0.37 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (25th).
• Baltimore edge defender Kyle Van Noy ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency and he will battle across from RT Andrew Wylie, who has allowed just 7 pressures (10th-fewest).
• Washington’s interior offensive line is only responsible for 31.8% of the pressures (3rd-fewest) and they will limit interior defender Nnamdi Madubuike, who has 15 pressures (9th).
• The Ravens are averaging 0.13 EPA/rush (2nd) and I expect them to pound the rock against a Commanders defense that is surrendering a 44.5% rush success rate (27th) – especially with Lamar Jackson not having a favorable passing matchup.
• Jackson is targeting tight ends on 28.3% of passes (5th-most) but Washington’s defense is conceding only 0.01 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (9th).
• Jackson will see pressure off the right side as rookie RT Roger Rosengarten struggles versus edge defender Dorance Armstrong, who ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency.
• Our model makes Baltimore a 6.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 51.3 points and Washington is in a negative situation. Teams that have won consecutive games in which they scored 31 points or more in each, are just 138-198-8 ATS on the road and The Commanders apply to a 30-85-2 ATS subset of that situation. I used Baltimore in my spread pool.