Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – WASHINGTON (-5.5) over Tennessee

• Jayden Daniels had 16 more rushing yards last week than he did in the three previous games combined, indicating that he is recovered from the rib injury.
• Daniels might need to scramble to avoid collapsing pockets. Commanders’ right tackle Andrew Wylie could miss this game and he ranks 15th in pass-blocking efficiency.
• However, Washington’s top offensive lineman is RG Sam Cosmi and he will line up across from Titans interior defender Jeffery Simmons, who has 31 pressures (15th). Cosmi ranks 12th in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Tennessee is without starting S Quandre Diggs and I expect Daniels to attack downfield. Commanders Terry McLaurin has 20 deep targets (4th) and he will go against CB Jarvis Brownlee, who is surrendering 1.56 yards per cover snap (8th-worst).
• The Titans are allowing just -0.16 EPA/rush (5th) and they will contain Washington ground game with a 45% rush success rate (5th).
• Tennessee’s yppp against Cover 1 is only 83% of the yppp versus other coverages (26th) and Will Levis will struggle as the Commanders have the 2nd-highest Cover 1 rate.
• Washington edge defender Dante Fowler ranks 5th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will dominate Titans’ rookie left tackle JC Latham, who has surrendered 5 sacks (7th-most).
• The Titans running backs have a 21% target share (6th-highest) but they will be limited by a Commanders defense allowing just -0.06 EPA/target to opposing running backs (9th).
• Our model makes Washington a 10.0-point favorite with a predicted total of 43.5. NFL teams with a pointspread win percentage of less than 20% (Tennessee) tend to cover the spread in late season games, which is what’s keeping me from making the Commanders a Best Bet.

Washington is a Strong Opinion at -6 or less.