Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Tennessee Team Total Under (16.5 +105)

Lean – PITTSBURGH (-3/-2.5) over Tennessee

· The Steelers are at -1.0 net yards per play (28th) halfway through the season but they are currently in line to make the playoffs because the defense has added a league-high 79 points from takeaways. A Pittsburgh win on Thursday night puts their playoff chances above 50% even with Cincinnati’s stock rising but a loss would put them with only a 20% postseason chance.

· The Steelers will have interior defender Cameron Heyward back for his first game since week 1. Heyward ranked 4th in pass-rushing efficiency last year.

· Pittsburgh All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has been ruled out with a hamstring strain and Titans rookie quarterback Will Levis threw 3 touchdowns last week on passes with more than 50 air yards. However, Levis only had a 32.4% dropback success rate, which ranked 2nd-worst among week 8 quarterbacks, and I expect the Steelers to take away the downfield passing exposing Levis’ lack of consistency.

· The Steelers benched cornerback Levi Wallace, who was surrendering 6.5 yards per target more than new starter Joey Porter.

· Titans starting tackle Chris Hubbard is out with a concussion forcing on the field Andre Dillard, who is surrendering a league-high 13.8% pressure rate.

· Tennessee’s other starting tackle this week will be Nicholas Petit-Frere, who has surrendered 8 pressures in two games after ranking 6th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency last season. TJ Watt has 8.5 sacks (3rd) and he will wreak havoc across from Petit-Frere.

· Kenny Pickett suffered a rib injury against the Jaguars, but he will start in this game. Pickett’s yards per attempt against a standard pass rush is a league-low 70% of his yards per attempt versus the blitz and he will struggle as the Titans use a 75.9% standard pass rush rate (7th-highest).

· All-Pro interior defender Jeffery Simmons has 31 pressures (3rd) and he has a favorable matchup on the inside as Pittsburgh C Mason Cole ranks 27th in pass-blocking efficiency out of 30 qualifying centers.

· Tennessee’s defense is conceding a 38% pass success rate to running backs (8th) and they will shut down RB Jaylen Warren, who is averaging 1.74 yards per route run (4th).

· Titans CB Sean Murphy-Bunting is conceding 0.80 yards per cover snap (14th) and he will limit WR George Pickens, whose 2.08 yards per route run ranks 16th.

· Pickett’s only option will be WR Diontae Johnson across from Tennessee CB Kristian Fulton, who is surrendering 1.63 yards per cover snap ranking 63rd out of 69 qualifying cornerbacks.

· Our model favors the Steelers by 4.3 points, with a predicted total of 33.5 points, and the best option is Tennessee’s Team Total Under.

Tennessee Team Total Under is a Strong Opinion at Under 16.5 -105 or 17 -125 or better.