Tennessee Titans @

New York Jets

Sun, Oct 3
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 255
Odds: New York Jets +7, Total: 44

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *NY JETS (+7.5) over Tennessee

Nobody wants to bet on the Jets given how bad they’ve been so far this season, but that’s part of the reason that they’re a good bet this week. New York’s defense is playing pretty well but their offense has gone from 14 points in their opener against Carolina to scoring 6 points against New England, and then being shutout last week at Denver.

No NFL team is that bad offensively and the public/market tends to overreact when they think a team can’t score points. In fact, NFL teams coming off consecutive games of scoring 9 points or less are 156-115-5 ATS (97-63-3 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points) and the over is 150-121-5. Underdogs coming off a shutout loss are also profitable historically (56% ATS). There is history of the market overreacting to teams that have been playing extremely poorly offensively and that is the case here.

There’s no sugarcoating Zach Wilson’s start to the year as the rookie quarterback is averaging just 4.3 yppp (32nd). However, the Jets have faced a difficult slate of opponents in the first three weeks. The Panthers, Patriots, and Broncos are conceding just under 11 points per game even if you take away their games against New York. Wilson will have an easier time finding open receivers against a Titans defense surrendering 7.3 yppp (25th), and I expect the Jets to move the ball on Sunday.

Jets’ interior defenders Folorunso Fatukasi and Quinnen Williams have 12 run stops already and the Titans won’t be able to move New York’s defensive front. Ryan Tannehill will be without Pro Bowl WR AJ Brown due to a strained hamstring and Brown is valued at 0.6 points to Tennessee’s offense according to our metrics. Julio Jones was held out for much of the second half last week due to a leg injury and his status is now up in the air for Sunday. Jets safety Marcus Maye is out, and he is worth 0.6 points.

Our model favors the Titans by just 4.0 points, with a predicted total of 45.5 points. New York is a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Titans
  • Jets
TEN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.7 35.7
  • Succ Pass Plays 50.0% 37.7%
  • Sack Rate 8.3% 6.6%
  • Int Rate 3.4% 1.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 11.5% 20.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 21.6% 51.0%
  • NYPP 6.8 7.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 33.0 22.7
  • RB YPR 4.0 4.3
  • Stuff Rate 28.6% 20.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 45.3% 56.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 47.9% 31.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.7 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 70.7 58.3
  • Early Down Succ 50.0% 46.8%
  • Succ Rate 47.1% 44.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 31.8% 45.5%
  • Yards Per Play 5.8 6.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 2.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.2 27.9
  • Run Ratio 46.5% 38.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control -5.6 5.6
 
  • Points 23.7 28.0
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