Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Tennessee (+3.5 -115) over NEW ORLEANS

· I’m not sure the Saints are a better team than the Titans. Home-field advantage isn’t worth more than a couple of points so New Orleans certainly shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal.

· Ryan Tannehill ranks 4th in EPA/play over the last four seasons since he came to Tennessee and Derek Carr ranks 16th in EPA/play during the same stretch.

· I don’t think there’s a major difference in the receiving corps with both rosters having one stud receiver. Saints WR Chris Olave and Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins both averaged 2 yards per route run last season.

· Then, each team has a receiver who could pop. Michael Thomas has played less than 500 snaps the last three seasons, but he was an All-Pro in consecutive years before that. Tennessee WR Treylon Burks showed flashes as a rookie averaging 2.15 yards per route run against man coverage (27th) and I think we could see him making a leap this year with Hopkins soaking up so much attention. During his time at Arkansas, Burks lined up in the slot on about 84% of his snaps and he should get an opportunity to play to his strengths on the inside in 2023 as Hopkins lines up wide on 82% of his snaps. Burks has an LCL sprain, but it looks likely he’ll be in uniform for week 1 after returning to practice.

· Derrick Henry is a clear edge at running back for the Titans, especially since Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the season.

· Tennessee’s offensive line is undoubtedly weaker but New Orleans have a worse defensive line after losing half of their total pressures from a season ago. Most notably the Saints moved on from DT David Onyemata and Edge Marcus Davenport, who ranked 2nd and 3rd on the team in pressures. We could see New Orleans DE Cameron Jordan take a step back in his age 34 season. Tennessee’s defensive line brings back Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry, who were both among the 34 defenders in the NFL last year to record more than 50 pressures.

· The Saints’ secondary is better at the top end with former Pro Bowlers S Tyrann Mathieu and CB Marshon Lattimore, but they lack the depth of the Titans’ back end. New Orleans is a couple of cornerbacks short as they’ll be starting Alontae Taylor and Paulson Adebo, who ranked 95th and 125th respectively in PFF coverage grade last season out of 135 qualifiers. Tennessee’s third cornerback is Roger McCreary, who conceded only 0.87 yards per cover snap in the slot last year (2nd).

· Tennessee’s defense held the Chargers to 17 points and 5.3 yppl without three starters in their most recent meeting versus a Sean Payton disciple offensive coordinator in week 15 last year.

· Based on the 2023 point spreads, the market is starting the Titans 2 points worse than average which doesn’t make sense to me. Tennessee was rated just 0.8 points worse than average by the market before Ryan Tannehill initially got hurt in week 8 and I don’t think the current roster is notably weaker than it was at that moment.

· Our model makes New Orleans a 1.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 42.9.

Tennessee is a Strong Opinion at +3 Even or better.