Game Analysis
1-Star Best Bet – *Tennessee (+7) over NEW ENGLAND
Tennessee’s offense will be without top wide receivers AJ Brown (chest) and Julio Jones (hamstring) as well as RB Derrick Henry (foot). Those three are worth 2.8 points combined according to our metrics, but the Titans should not be getting a touchdown even after accounting for the lack of Brown, Jones, and Henry.
New England’s strength of schedule this season ranks 30th and the Patriots are a middle of the pack 12th in net yards per play after compensating for their opponents. Mac Jones is averaging 6.7 yppp during the five-game winning streak which would rank just 14th. For context, Tua Tagovailoa is averaging 6.7 yppp this year, so all the praise for Jones is a bit much, although he’s good for a rookie. New England’s offense is 33 for 66 on third down during the winning streak, converting at a rate usually reserved for the most dominant offenses in the NFL, of which the Patriots are not. Last year’s Packers and the Saints in 2011 were the only teams in the last decade to convert half of their first downs. In other words, the Patriots have been lucky to convert on 3rd-down as often as they have lately.
Tennessee’s defense is allowing a league-low 4.7 yards per target to opposing tight ends and will shut down the Hunter Henry/Jonnu Smith tandem. The Titans have the 9th-rated rush defense, and they will limit a Patriots ground game ranked 11th by our numbers.
The most likely outcome for New England’s offense is 24 points on Sunday. Tennessee’s offense has reached 20 points in all but two games this season. The Titans would have put up around 28 points against the Texans last week if it weren’t for the five turnovers even with Brown only available for 52% of snaps. That loss has the Titans undervalued heading into this game.
Our model favors the Patriots by just 2.4 points even with the injury adjustments, with a predicted total of 43.9 points, and Tennessee is a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 at -115 odds or better.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.55
41.00
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.0%
44.8%
-
Sack Rate
7.7%
6.0%
-
Int Rate
3.2%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.6%
16.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
28.5%
41.3%
-
NYPP
6.16
6.18
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.91
23.73
-
RB YPR
3.95
4.02
-
Stuff Rate
25.3%
23.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.6%
53.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.1%
30.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.17
4.10
Game
-
All Snaps
67.45
64.73
-
Early Down Succ
50.1%
51.2%
-
Succ Rate
47.3%
47.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
33.5%
38.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.25
5.41
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.08
26.70
-
Run Ratio
45.8%
36.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
1.06
-1.06
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.55
37.00
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.9%
44.0%
-
Sack Rate
5.5%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
4.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.0%
19.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.4%
33.5%
-
NYPP
6.86
5.71
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.18
24.82
-
RB YPR
4.15
4.06
-
Stuff Rate
25.8%
23.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.6%
44.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
49.0%
41.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.12
4.10
Game
-
All Snaps
62.73
61.82
-
Early Down Succ
52.3%
47.4%
-
Succ Rate
50.1%
44.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.8%
35.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.63
5.06
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.91
28.68
-
Run Ratio
44.9%
40.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
3.99
-3.99
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
ARZ |
13 – 38 L |
-15.57 |
42.9% / 41.2% |
14.3% / 5.9% |
2.8% / 3.1% |
3.86 / 8.24 |
45.5% / 54.5% |
36.4% / 21.2% |
3.91 / 4.12 |
64 / 67 |
50.0% / 47.2% |
43.8% / 47.8% |
24.3% / 46.6% |
3.88 / 6.21 |
3.1% / 0.0% |
34.4% / 49.3% |
25.33 / 42.50 |
2 |
@SEA |
33 – 30 W |
-5.49 |
53.5% / 41.2% |
7.0% / 8.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.44 / 9.41 |
52.5% / 55.6% |
22.5% / 22.2% |
5.30 / 4.28 |
83 / 52 |
57.6% / 51.3% |
53.0% / 46.2% |
31.3% / 58.6% |
6.41 / 7.63 |
1.2% / 0.0% |
48.2% / 34.6% |
23.92 / 29.75 |
3 |
IND |
25 – 16 W |
4.29 |
53.6% / 30.8% |
3.6% / 5.1% |
7.4% / 0.0% |
6.71 / 4.56 |
37.8% / 61.1% |
27.0% / 16.7% |
4.86 / 4.83 |
65 / 57 |
42.3% / 42.9% |
44.6% / 40.4% |
39.8% / 30.6% |
5.66 / 4.65 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
56.9% / 31.6% |
26.78 / 31.44 |
4 |
@NYJ |
24 – 27 L |
1.09 |
41.1% / 45.7% |
12.5% / 2.9% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
4.52 / 8.26 |
51.4% / 48.0% |
18.9% / 36.0% |
4.78 / 2.64 |
93 / 60 |
50.7% / 47.8% |
45.2% / 46.7% |
33.9% / 57.3% |
4.62 / 5.92 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.8% / 41.7% |
28.15 / 27.00 |
5 |
@JAX |
37 – 19 W |
9.28 |
40.0% / 54.3% |
12.0% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
7.36 / 7.31 |
63.9% / 61.3% |
13.9% / 19.4% |
5.11 / 6.39 |
61 / 66 |
57.4% / 65.4% |
54.1% / 57.6% |
45.9% / 41.4% |
6.03 / 6.88 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
59.0% / 47.0% |
30.78 / 24.73 |
6 |
BUF |
34 – 31 W |
-2.27 |
44.8% / 54.0% |
0.0% / 6.0% |
3.4% / 2.1% |
7.45 / 6.70 |
45.5% / 43.5% |
31.8% / 21.7% |
6.64 / 3.57 |
51 / 73 |
45.0% / 52.6% |
45.1% / 50.7% |
54.7% / 26.4% |
7.10 / 5.71 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.1% / 31.5% |
28.55 / 25.80 |
7 |
KC |
27 – 3 W |
17.81 |
65.5% / 52.7% |
3.4% / 7.3% |
3.6% / 2.0% |
9.17 / 4.67 |
48.6% / 76.9% |
22.9% / 23.1% |
2.94 / 5.92 |
64 / 68 |
54.9% / 62.3% |
56.3% / 57.4% |
38.9% / 31.2% |
5.77 / 4.91 |
0.0% / 2.9% |
54.7% / 19.1% |
28.33 / 19.56 |
8 |
@IND |
34 – 31 W |
-3.46 |
43.2% / 42.3% |
8.1% / 1.9% |
5.9% / 3.9% |
6.68 / 4.31 |
35.5% / 70.0% |
25.8% / 5.0% |
3.00 / 4.15 |
68 / 72 |
37.0% / 50.9% |
39.7% / 50.0% |
23.2% / 31.2% |
5.00 / 4.26 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.6% / 27.8% |
29.25 / 30.92 |
9 |
@LA |
28 – 16 W |
9.58 |
40.0% / 43.4% |
10.0% / 9.4% |
3.7% / 4.2% |
4.17 / 4.77 |
53.8% / 52.4% |
19.2% / 19.0% |
2.65 / 4.48 |
56 / 74 |
51.3% / 52.8% |
46.4% / 45.9% |
11.8% / 27.1% |
3.46 / 4.69 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
46.4% / 28.4% |
36.55 / 20.91 |
10 |
NO |
23 – 21 W |
4.91 |
44.8% / 40.0% |
6.9% / 10.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.83 / 7.18 |
37.9% / 52.4% |
37.9% / 28.6% |
2.28 / 4.10 |
58 / 61 |
46.7% / 48.9% |
41.4% / 44.3% |
31.9% / 48.9% |
4.55 / 6.11 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 34.4% |
35.09 / 28.10 |
11 |
HST |
13 – 22 L |
-8.51 |
50.0% / 41.7% |
3.7% / 0.0% |
7.7% / 0.0% |
5.87 / 4.46 |
48.0% / 34.2% |
32.0% / 36.8% |
4.12 / 2.18 |
79 / 62 |
53.4% / 36.4% |
49.4% / 37.1% |
23.7% / 0.0% |
5.32 / 3.06 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
31.6% / 61.3% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
MIA |
16 – 17 L |
-3.18 |
56.4% / 51.7% |
0.0% / 6.9% |
0.0% / 3.7% |
7.21 / 6.38 |
56.7% / 56.5% |
13.3% / 30.4% |
4.17 / 3.22 |
69 / 52 |
52.8% / 58.5% |
56.5% / 53.8% |
36.9% / 43.1% |
5.88 / 4.98 |
2.9% / 0.0% |
43.5% / 44.2% |
27.63 / 25.11 |
2 |
@NYJ |
25 – 6 W |
10.53 |
36.4% / 35.1% |
9.1% / 10.8% |
0.0% / 12.1% |
4.82 / 4.97 |
54.2% / 51.6% |
20.8% / 29.0% |
4.21 / 4.90 |
57 / 68 |
50.0% / 45.1% |
43.9% / 42.6% |
48.1% / 50.0% |
4.56 / 4.94 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.1% / 45.6% |
40.00 / 24.58 |
3 |
NO |
13 – 28 L |
-10.20 |
35.8% / 50.0% |
3.8% / 12.5% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
4.74 / 4.58 |
41.2% / 50.0% |
23.5% / 18.4% |
2.88 / 3.74 |
70 / 62 |
37.0% / 53.2% |
37.1% / 50.0% |
28.8% / 9.3% |
4.29 / 4.06 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
24.3% / 61.3% |
27.92 / 32.92 |
4 |
TB |
17 – 19 L |
-0.20 |
54.3% / 40.9% |
8.7% / 2.3% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
6.41 / 5.93 |
25.0% / 53.3% |
75.0% / 23.3% |
-0.13 / 3.97 |
54 / 74 |
59.5% / 46.3% |
50.0% / 45.9% |
22.6% / 42.3% |
5.44 / 5.14 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
14.8% / 40.5% |
29.64 / 25.64 |
5 |
@HST |
25 – 22 W |
-5.14 |
54.8% / 46.9% |
3.2% / 9.4% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
7.29 / 9.16 |
56.7% / 20.8% |
30.0% / 12.5% |
4.20 / 2.79 |
61 / 56 |
57.1% / 29.7% |
55.7% / 35.7% |
38.9% / 47.8% |
5.77 / 6.43 |
1.6% / 1.8% |
49.2% / 42.9% |
33.33 / 27.22 |
6 |
DAL |
29 – 35 L |
2.00 |
52.2% / 52.9% |
8.7% / 0.0% |
4.8% / 2.0% |
9.35 / 8.73 |
51.9% / 35.5% |
18.5% / 29.0% |
4.44 / 3.94 |
50 / 82 |
57.5% / 50.8% |
52.0% / 46.3% |
56.4% / 39.7% |
6.70 / 6.91 |
2.0% / 1.2% |
54.0% / 37.8% |
30.38 / 29.00 |
7 |
NYJ |
54 – 13 W |
19.28 |
54.8% / 52.3% |
2.4% / 4.5% |
0.0% / 4.8% |
9.60 / 5.39 |
50.0% / 52.9% |
31.3% / 17.6% |
4.63 / 3.65 |
74 / 61 |
50.8% / 55.6% |
52.7% / 52.5% |
69.8% / 26.3% |
7.45 / 4.90 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
43.2% / 27.9% |
35.27 / 25.64 |
8 |
@LAC |
27 – 24 W |
-0.77 |
44.4% / 39.5% |
2.8% / 7.9% |
0.0% / 5.7% |
5.86 / 5.42 |
59.0% / 40.0% |
23.1% / 15.0% |
3.62 / 8.15 |
75 / 58 |
54.5% / 42.9% |
52.0% / 39.7% |
28.1% / 46.1% |
4.69 / 6.36 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
52.0% / 34.5% |
37.18 / 20.25 |
9 |
@CAR |
24 – 6 W |
7.64 |
35.0% / 32.4% |
10.0% / 2.9% |
5.6% / 9.1% |
6.10 / 4.76 |
46.2% / 39.1% |
23.1% / 17.4% |
3.87 / 3.39 |
59 / 57 |
41.9% / 38.6% |
42.4% / 35.1% |
49.7% / 29.6% |
4.63 / 4.21 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
66.1% / 40.4% |
35.10 / 30.82 |
10 |
CLV |
45 – 7 W |
14.20 |
64.3% / 39.5% |
7.1% / 13.2% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
9.57 / 3.11 |
52.9% / 45.0% |
26.5% / 20.0% |
5.41 / 4.95 |
62 / 58 |
55.8% / 51.2% |
58.1% / 41.4% |
56.7% / 20.9% |
7.29 / 3.74 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
54.8% / 34.5% |
28.78 / 22.11 |
11 |
@ATL |
25 – 0 W |
9.70 |
51.7% / 41.7% |
10.3% / 11.1% |
3.8% / 12.5% |
6.00 / 3.47 |
50.0% / 31.3% |
33.3% / 43.8% |
4.47 / 2.50 |
59 / 52 |
57.8% / 45.9% |
50.8% / 38.5% |
25.5% / 11.1% |
5.22 / 3.17 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.8% / 30.8% |
0.00 / 0.00 |