Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved up to -2.5 since we released this play but Miami is still a Strong Opinion at -2.5 or less.

Strong Opinion – MIAMI (-1.5) over Tennessee to -2.5

• Miami’s offense has averaged 1.6 yards per play less with Tua Tagovailoa off the field under head coach Mike McDaniel, but they finally have a capable backup quarterback.
• Tyler Huntley will be under center for the Dolphins on Monday night, and he is averaging -0.03 EPA/play for his career. Tim Boyle has a career average of -0.18 EPA/play and Skylar Thompson is all the way down at -0.31 EPA/play. To put it in perspective, Huntley ranks 61st while Boyle is 87th and Thompson is last out of 100 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA/play since 2019. We have Huntley 4 points worse than Tagovailoa but certainly an upgrade of Thompson.
• Miami’s offense has enough horsepower even without LT Terron Armstead for Huntley to move the ball against Tennessee missing two of their three most valuable defenders.
• The Titans placed veteran cornerback Chidobe Awuzie on injured reserve due to a groin, injury leaving backup Jarvis Brownlee to fend against WR Jaylen Waddle, who is averaging 0.92 EPA/target (5th). McDaniel will also use motion to scheme the rookie cornerback across from wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who is averaging 2.04 yards per route run (12th).
• Tennessee’s pass rush endured a major blow when Jeffery Simmons’ elbow caused him to not practice again on Saturday listing him as doubtful for Monday’s game. Simmons ranked 10th among interior defenders in pass rushing efficiency last season and is worth 0.8 points according to our metrics.
• Titans head coach Brian Callahan is going to want Will Levis to be ultra cautious given the quarterbacks 9 interceptions and 9 fumbles in his first 11 NFL starts.
• However, the conservative gameplan won’t work against Miami’s defense as the Dolphins are allowing -0.20 EPA/rush (7th).
• Furthermore, the Dolphins are conceding a 36% pass success rate to running backs (6th) and will shut down the screens as the Titans are targeting running backs on 27% of passes (2nd-most).
• Miami interior defender Zach Sieler has 8 pressures (16th) and he will wreak havoc versus LG Peter Skoronski, who ranks 56th in pass blocking efficiency out of 60 qualifiers.
• Our model favors the Dolphins by 4.7 points, with a predicted total of 38.8 points.

Miami is a Strong Opinion at -2.5 or less.