Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – MIAMI (+1.5) over Tennessee

The Dolphins faced significant adversity at the beginning of last season with a hurricane canceling their week 1 game, then traveling across the country to Los Angeles in week 2, only to travel back for week 3 in New York, and then across the ocean for a London game before playing their first home game in week 5. To make matters worse, Miami was the 3rd-most injured team in the league and didn’t get a mid-season bye week for recovery due to the opening week cancelation. One of those injuries was to starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who didn’t take a snap in 2017.

Miami ended up finishing 28th in scoring with the combination of Jay Cutler, Matt Moore, and David Fales averaging just 5.6 yards per pass play. Tannehill will be back under center in 2018 and, while he isn’t going to light the world on fire, he has been improving throughout his career. Tannehill’s last full season (2016), which was also coach Adam Gase’s first season, was his best season and the Dolphins were 8-5 before he was injured. Our numbers show Miami’s offense would’ve improved by 76 points last season using Tannehill’s 2016 production, putting the Dolphins right around league average in scoring. Tannehill is now in the prime of his career and I’m expecting him to play well despite the loss of receiver Jarvis Landry. Landry was one of the least efficient go-to guys in the league last season, averaging just 1.65 yards per route run – ranking 19th out of 23 receivers with at least 100 targets. Landry’s numbers with Tannehill in 2016 were obviously better, but his 8.7 yards per target in 2016 was barely better than the next two wide receivers on that year’s team, who averaged 8.6 ypt. I don’t think the absence of Landry will have an impact, especially with the signing of former Patriots’ WR Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson, who averaged 7.5 yards after catch last season (2nd).

Miami’s offensive line ranked 4th in Pro Football Focus’s pass blocking efficiency, but the run blocking was an issue as Miami finished 30th in rush success rate. Consequently, the Dolphins upgraded in the interior of the line, where run blocking is more valuable, adding 3-time All-Pro guard Josh Sitton and league-average center Daniel Kilgore (from SF). The Dolphins managed just 2.7 yards per rush behind the center last season, while the 49ers gained 3.7 yards per rush behind Kilgore and I expect Miami’s ground game overall to improve. Kenyan Drake averaged 4.9 yards per rush after becoming the workhorse back in week 13 last year and his production will take some pressure off Tannehill.

Tannehill’s first test will come against a Titans defense now under the direction of Mike Vrabel and Dean Pees. Tennessee added former Patriot Malcolm Butler to their secondary in the offseason, the cornerback most famous for his goal-line interception in Super Bowl 49 and his inexplicable benching in Super Bowl 52. Butler has improved his yards allowed per cover snap every year he’s been in the league and should be a top 25 cornerback playing across from Adoree’ Jackson, who surrendered only 0.98 yards per cover snap in his rookie season (33rd among cornerbacks).

Matt LaFleur is Tennessee’s new offensive coordinator after working with the Rams last season. LaFleur was on the coaching staff during the best pro/college seasons for Matt Schaub (2009), Robert Griffin III (2012), Everett Golson (2014), Matt Ryan (2016), and Jared Goff (2017). Our QB model ranks Marcus Mariota as our 19th most-valuable quarterback heading into 2018 and I believe LaFleur is the right coach to help him turn-it-around after a sophomore slump. One of Mariota’s main threats on the outside will be Corey Davis, who battled injuries and was disappointing his rookie season. There’s reason to believe the former 5th-overall pick will improve, as wide receivers drafted in the top 10 average a 1.0 yard per target increase in their second season (based on data since 2010). Tennessee’s ground game looks strong with Dion Lewis and Derek Henry, both of whom finished in the top 10 in rushing success rate last year.

The Tennessee running backs will face a Dolphins front without Ndamukong Suh, but he will be easier to replace than most realize because of his down year in 2017. Suh’s 8.1% pressure rate was his lowest in 6 seasons and only slightly better than league average for interior linemen (7.5%). Akeem Spence was brought in to replace Suh and he had 23 run stops in fewer snaps than Suh, who finished with 22 run stops last season. Miami’s defense also loses former All-Pro linebacker Lawrence Timmons, but he was well past his prime and led the league in missed tackles on opposing running backs last season. Timmons will be replaced by 2017 second-round pick Raekwon McMillan, who should provide an upgrade after missing his rookie season with a torn ACL. The secondary should also improve with the addition of first-round pick Minkah Fitzpatrick to play next to Pro-Bowler Reshad Jones at safety.

I believe the losses of Landry and Suh are overstated for Miami and Tannehill should be a significant upgrade over last year’s quarterback production. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s offense has the chance to be better than expected if everything clicks with LaFleur and Mariota. My ratings favor Miami by 0.7 points and the Dolphins apply to a 71-43-3 ATS week 1 contrary indicator. I’ll lean with the Dolphins.

Team Stats
Game Log

Titans
Dolphins

TEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.8 40.8
Succ Pass Plays 43.1% 47.0%
Sack Rate 7.2% 6.6%
Int Rate 3.6% 1.8%
Deep Pass Rate 21.6% 16.4%
Big Pass Yards 35.9% 28.7%
NYPP 6.0 5.9

Rush

Rush Plays 28.3 25.2
RB YPR 3.7 3.5
Stuff Rate 25.1% 22.2%
Succ Rush Plays 41.8% 42.2%
Big Rush Yards 42.7% 29.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.1 3.5

Game

All Snaps 62.1 65.9
Early Down Succ 45.9% 48.4%
Succ Rate 42.8% 45.6%
Big Yards Rate 39.2% 29.1%
Yards Per Play 5.1 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.2 27.7
Run Ratio 45.5% 38.1%
Starting Field Pos 28.0 28.7
Game Control -2.0 2.0

Points 20.6 22.9

MIA

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.6 34.8
Succ Pass Plays 43.4% 45.1%
Sack Rate 5.2% 5.4%
Int Rate 3.5% 1.6%
Deep Pass Rate 18.2% 18.6%
Big Pass Yards 29.9% 43.6%
NYPP 5.6 6.6

Rush

Rush Plays 22.9 28.1
RB YPR 3.8 3.6
Stuff Rate 32.9% 30.1%
Succ Rush Plays 39.7% 36.1%
Big Rush Yards 44.5% 56.5%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.8

Game

All Snaps 62.6 62.8
Early Down Succ 46.2% 44.4%
Succ Rate 42.3% 41.3%
Big Yards Rate 35.0% 47.5%
Yards Per Play 4.9 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.3 29.2
Run Ratio 36.5% 44.0%
Starting Field Pos 27.4 29.0
Game Control -5.4 5.4

Points 17.6 24.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	OAK	16 – 26 L	-4.4	50.0% / 55.9%	2.4% / 5.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.1 / 7.4	42.9% / 50.0%	28.6% / 16.7%	4.5 / 3.7	63 / 64	46.9% / 57.1%	47.6% / 53.1%	33.1% / 26.7%	5.6 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	33.3% / 46.9%	22.4 / 29.3
2	@JAC	37 – 16 W	7.9	42.9% / 41.7%	3.6% / 5.6%	3.7% / 5.9%	7.5 / 5.9	68.4% / 64.0%	10.5% / 12.0%	4.8 / 4.0	66 / 61	64.0% / 52.1%	57.6% / 50.8%	41.6% / 23.5%	5.9 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.6%	57.6% / 41.0%	39.9 / 23.4
3	SEA	33 – 27 W	4.9	51.6% / 50.0%	0.0% / 2.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 7.3	44.4% / 40.9%	22.2% / 31.8%	5.4 / 3.1	67 / 72	54.9% / 51.8%	47.8% / 47.2%	44.9% / 38.8%	6.3 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	53.7% / 30.6%	29.6 / 23.3
4	@HOU	14 – 57 L	-20.6	40.9% / 58.3%	9.1% / 5.6%	20.0% / 2.9%	5.0 / 7.6	35.0% / 50.0%	15.0% / 14.3%	4.4 / 4.1	42 / 78	43.8% / 53.8%	38.1% / 53.8%	52.6% / 28.5%	4.7 / 5.7	2.4% / 0.0%	47.6% / 53.8%	21.9 / 38.0
5	@MIA	10 – 16 L	-4.2	36.8% / 25.0%	15.8% / 3.6%	0.0% / 3.7%	3.1 / 2.8	30.0% / 43.8%	45.0% / 28.1%	3.5 / 3.2	58 / 60	40.0% / 37.2%	34.5% / 35.0%	19.1% / 6.1%	3.2 / 3.0	3.4% / 1.7%	34.5% / 53.3%	25.1 / 27.0
6	IND	36 – 22 W	-1.2	57.6% / 51.4%	3.0% / 0.0%	3.1% / 0.0%	9.2 / 5.7	42.9% / 40.0%	20.0% / 20.0%	4.8 / 4.3	68 / 57	51.9% / 53.2%	50.0% / 47.4%	42.2% / 22.6%	7.0 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.8%	51.5% / 35.1%	27.4 / 26.5
7	@CLE	12 – 9 W	2.1	41.7% / 39.0%	5.6% / 4.9%	0.0% / 7.7%	5.3 / 5.3	31.3% / 25.9%	46.9% / 22.2%	2.5 / 2.5	68 / 68	38.0% / 37.3%	36.8% / 33.8%	14.5% / 23.9%	4.0 / 4.2	1.5% / 0.0%	47.1% / 39.7%	33.6 / 25.1
9	BAL	23 – 20 W	6.3	51.6% / 49.1%	9.7% / 3.6%	3.6% / 3.8%	6.0 / 4.9	36.4% / 40.9%	22.7% / 22.7%	3.3 / 3.3	53 / 77	53.8% / 47.4%	45.3% / 46.8%	49.0% / 8.2%	4.9 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	41.5% / 28.6%	34.6 / 24.8
10	CIN	24 – 20 W	2.6	43.8% / 38.9%	8.3% / 2.8%	2.3% / 0.0%	4.9 / 7.1	52.8% / 50.0%	16.7% / 28.6%	5.0 / 3.8	84 / 50	46.4% / 48.7%	47.6% / 42.0%	34.6% / 51.0%	5.0 / 6.2	1.2% / 4.0%	42.9% / 28.0%	26.1 / 30.9
11	@PIT	17 – 40 L	-9.1	41.0% / 55.3%	12.8% / 6.4%	11.8% / 0.0%	6.8 / 6.0	32.0% / 33.3%	32.0% / 16.7%	2.2 / 2.8	64 / 71	42.9% / 55.6%	37.5% / 47.9%	53.3% / 26.7%	5.0 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	39.1% / 33.8%	22.2 / 44.3
12	@IND	20 – 16 W	-0.5	48.0% / 37.8%	0.0% / 21.6%	8.0% / 0.0%	7.4 / 4.5	40.0% / 37.5%	26.7% / 20.8%	3.1 / 3.7	55 / 61	48.8% / 36.2%	43.6% / 37.7%	35.6% / 28.3%	5.1 / 4.2	0.0% / 1.6%	54.5% / 39.3%	31.1 / 29.8
13	HOU	24 – 13 W	-0.2	36.0% / 51.9%	8.0% / 7.7%	0.0% / 2.1%	5.8 / 6.4	44.0% / 26.1%	24.0% / 39.1%	7.9 / 2.3	50 / 75	36.8% / 42.9%	40.0% / 44.0%	55.5% / 40.5%	6.9 / 5.1	2.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 30.7%	24.3 / 27.5
14	@ARI	7 – 12 L	1.6	35.3% / 44.1%	8.8% / 23.5%	6.5% / 0.0%	4.1 / 3.7	50.0% / 38.7%	36.4% / 22.6%	3.0 / 4.5	56 / 65	45.2% / 51.1%	41.1% / 41.5%	25.0% / 47.9%	3.6 / 4.0	0.0% / 0.0%	39.3% / 47.7%	24.5 / 35.6
15	@SF	23 – 25 L	-3.0	52.9% / 57.8%	2.9% / 6.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.0 / 8.1	50.0% / 27.3%	21.4% / 36.4%	3.2 / 2.3	62 / 67	51.0% / 47.2%	51.6% / 47.8%	26.8% / 31.2%	5.3 / 6.2	1.6% / 0.0%	45.2% / 32.8%	23.4 / 23.7
16	LA	23 – 27 L	-2.4	40.0% / 50.0%	2.5% / 2.5%	2.6% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.2	38.5% / 44.4%	26.9% / 14.8%	3.7 / 4.3	66 / 67	43.4% / 51.0%	39.4% / 47.8%	36.6% / 41.7%	5.5 / 6.0	0.0% / 1.5%	39.4% / 40.3%	30.6 / 26.5
17	JAC	15 – 10 W	5.6	29.2% / 33.3%	12.5% / 5.6%	0.0% / 5.9%	4.8 / 4.1	37.5% / 50.0%	30.0% / 16.7%	2.9 / 3.5	64 / 60	40.0% / 40.9%	34.4% / 40.0%	51.1% / 10.0%	3.6 / 3.8	1.6% / 3.3%	62.5% / 40.0%	38.2 / 21.9
18	@KC	22 – 21 W	-9.2	45.5% / 48.6%	6.1% / 10.8%	3.2% / 0.0%	5.9 / 6.9	51.4% / 50.0%	13.5% / 25.0%	5.5 / 4.3	70 / 53	53.1% / 53.7%	48.6% / 49.1%	51.0% / 42.8%	5.7 / 6.1	1.4% / 0.0%	52.9% / 30.2%	27.4 / 26.3
19	@NE	14 – 35 L	-11.4	31.1% / 58.5%	17.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.5 / 6.4	25.0% / 46.4%	12.5% / 10.7%	4.1 / 3.7	61 / 81	25.6% / 54.1%	29.5% / 54.3%	38.2% / 25.6%	4.4 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	26.2% / 34.6%	21.0 / 32.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
2	@LAC	19 – 17 W	-2.0	44.4% / 62.5%	5.6% / 2.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 8.1	36.4% / 28.6%	30.3% / 50.0%	3.4 / 3.1	69 / 54	43.4% / 58.7%	40.6% / 53.7%	38.9% / 28.6%	4.9 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	47.8% / 25.9%	26.4 / 24.9
3	@NYJ	6 – 20 L	-9.8	41.7% / 52.0%	6.3% / 8.0%	4.4% / 0.0%	4.1 / 9.3	46.7% / 37.1%	46.7% / 34.3%	2.0 / 3.0	63 / 60	54.2% / 48.9%	42.9% / 43.3%	11.6% / 40.1%	3.6 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.7%	23.8% / 58.3%	23.7 / 31.4
4	NO	0 – 20 L	-5.5	37.5% / 48.8%	12.5% / 2.4%	3.6% / 0.0%	4.0 / 6.4	60.0% / 46.4%	40.0% / 14.3%	3.9 / 3.1	47 / 69	52.6% / 46.3%	44.7% / 47.8%	31.7% / 46.1%	4.0 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	31.9% / 40.6%	27.0 / 28.8
5	TEN	16 – 10 W	4.2	25.0% / 36.8%	3.6% / 15.8%	3.7% / 0.0%	2.8 / 3.1	43.8% / 30.0%	28.1% / 45.0%	3.2 / 3.5	60 / 58	37.2% / 40.0%	35.0% / 34.5%	6.1% / 19.1%	3.0 / 3.2	1.7% / 3.4%	53.3% / 34.5%	27.0 / 25.1
6	@ATL	20 – 17 W	-7.7	45.5% / 50.0%	0.0% / 5.6%	3.0% / 2.9%	4.6 / 6.6	46.9% / 47.4%	25.0% / 42.1%	4.3 / 5.3	65 / 55	47.9% / 48.8%	46.2% / 49.1%	23.8% / 40.1%	4.5 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	49.2% / 34.5%	30.2 / 20.7
7	NYJ	31 – 28 W	-5.2	52.5% / 36.7%	7.5% / 10.0%	5.4% / 3.7%	7.6 / 6.0	24.0% / 34.8%	44.0% / 30.4%	2.1 / 4.0	65 / 53	42.3% / 37.5%	41.5% / 35.8%	53.8% / 61.9%	5.5 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.9%	38.5% / 43.4%	31.2 / 29.3
8	@BAL	0 – 40 L	-17.5	29.8% / 36.4%	6.4% / 0.0%	4.5% / 0.0%	3.2 / 5.5	26.3% / 34.9%	42.1% / 20.9%	2.4 / 4.1	66 / 65	30.6% / 42.6%	28.8% / 35.4%	41.3% / 45.0%	3.0 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	28.8% / 66.2%	22.2 / 35.3
9	OAK	24 – 27 L	-3.2	58.1% / 54.8%	2.3% / 3.2%	0.0% / 3.3%	7.2 / 9.5	27.8% / 23.3%	38.9% / 23.3%	4.8 / 2.9	61 / 61	52.1% / 39.0%	49.2% / 39.3%	26.8% / 59.7%	6.5 / 6.3	1.6% / 1.6%	29.5% / 49.2%	27.1 / 28.2
10	@CAR	21 – 45 L	-12.9	48.6% / 60.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	2.7% / 0.0%	5.8 / 7.3	27.8% / 52.6%	22.2% / 18.4%	5.6 / 7.8	55 / 73	40.0% / 54.5%	41.8% / 56.2%	38.9% / 57.3%	5.7 / 7.5	0.0% / 0.0%	32.7% / 52.1%	21.9 / 30.1
11	TB	20 – 30 L	-5.1	46.3% / 39.5%	2.4% / 2.6%	7.5% / 0.0%	8.9 / 7.1	15.8% / 20.8%	57.9% / 41.7%	4.4 / 2.2	60 / 62	34.8% / 34.7%	36.7% / 32.3%	61.2% / 42.4%	7.5 / 5.2	3.3% / 0.0%	31.7% / 38.7%	25.2 / 35.9
12	@NE	17 – 35 L	-13.1	47.5% / 44.8%	17.5% / 3.4%	6.1% / 3.6%	3.9 / 7.6	42.1% / 42.9%	31.6% / 16.7%	3.5 / 4.8	59 / 71	51.1% / 50.0%	45.8% / 43.7%	23.5% / 69.4%	3.7 / 5.9	1.7% / 1.4%	32.2% / 59.2%	25.9 / 31.6
13	DEN	35 – 9 W	12.2	41.2% / 29.5%	5.9% / 6.8%	6.3% / 7.3%	6.5 / 3.8	43.3% / 34.8%	23.3% / 26.1%	4.8 / 4.5	64 / 67	46.9% / 37.7%	42.2% / 31.3%	56.1% / 60.7%	5.7 / 4.0	1.6% / 0.0%	46.9% / 34.3%	40.2 / 17.9
14	NE	27 – 20 W	7.4	45.0% / 33.3%	5.0% / 4.4%	0.0% / 4.7%	6.1 / 5.0	40.6% / 30.0%	21.9% / 40.0%	3.8 / 2.5	72 / 55	50.0% / 40.9%	43.1% / 32.7%	35.3% / 56.9%	5.1 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	44.4% / 18.2%	28.8 / 24.2
15	@BUF	16 – 24 L	-10.0	40.4% / 45.2%	5.8% / 6.5%	6.1% / 0.0%	4.8 / 6.8	57.1% / 38.7%	33.3% / 25.8%	4.8 / 3.8	73 / 62	50.0% / 43.2%	45.2% / 41.9%	30.9% / 52.9%	4.8 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	28.8% / 50.0%	28.6 / 33.1
16	@KC	13 – 29 L	-7.3	44.7% / 42.5%	0.0% / 2.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 7.5	47.1% / 33.3%	17.6% / 25.0%	3.5 / 2.9	55 / 76	55.8% / 38.2%	45.5% / 38.2%	47.4% / 49.5%	6.3 / 5.3	3.6% / 0.0%	30.9% / 47.4%	27.3 / 40.9
17	BUF	16 – 22 L	-11.4	46.7% / 48.4%	2.2% / 12.9%	2.3% / 0.0%	5.8 / 6.0	50.0% / 42.4%	22.7% / 27.3%	4.2 / 3.9	67 / 64	51.0% / 49.0%	47.8% / 45.3%	32.6% / 30.6%	5.3 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	32.8% / 51.6%	25.5 / 26.3

Tennessee Titans @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Sep 9

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis