Game Analysis

LA CHARGERS (-3) vs Tennessee

· The storyline in this game is the players these teams could be getting back on both sides of the ball.

· Ryan Tannehill averaged just 5.4 yppp in the loss to the Jaguars last week without WR Treylon Burks, who was out with a concussion. Burks leads all Tennessee’s wide receivers averaging 0.35 EPA/target.

· The Titans will likely return edge defender Denico Autry, who ranks 13th in pass rushing efficiency. Tennessee’s defense had just a 2.44% sack rate the last three games without Autry.

· Justin Herbert evaded a career-high 5 pressures last Sunday night according to Next Gen Stats but he should be more comfortable on Sunday with a healthier offensive line. Trey Pipkins missed the last game and isn’t a shutdown tackle by any means, but he is a massive improvement over backup RT Foster Sarell. Pipkins is allowing a 5.8% pressure rate this year while Sarell is surrendering a 10.3% pressure rate.

· The Chargers are allowing +0.030 EPA/rush (29th) but will likely have back interior defender Sebastian Joseph-Day, who has 19 run stops (15th). They will need all hands on deck to contain Derrick Henry, who topped 100 rushing yards in the opening half alone last week.

· The Los Angeles defense will also return nickelback Bryce Callahan, who is being targeted on just one in every 7.4 cover snaps in the slot (5th-fewest). Callahan is worth 0.4 points according to our metrics.

· Tennessee is targeting TEs on 26.8% of passes (4th-most) and the Chargers are allowing 8.8 yards per target to tight ends (30th). The status of Los Angeles Pro Bowl safety Derwin James (missed last week) will be worth monitoring or they will be incapable of stopping the Titans tight ends.

· Tennessee’s defense is conceding only 5.0 yards per target to RBs (9th) but they will not have LB David Long, who ranks 22nd in coverage grade by PFF. The loss of Long could leave an opening in the receiving game for Austin Ekeler, who is gaining 1.72 yards per route run (3rd).

· Our model favors the Chargers by 1.8 with a predicted total of 47.5.