Game Analysis

JACKSONVILLE (-6) vs Tennessee

Lean – Under (40)

· Joshua Dobbs averaged 5.4 yppp last week and looked better than Malik Willis. Tennessee head coach Mike Vrbael has stated Dobbs is his guy for this must win game.

· Jacksonville’s pass rush had a 54% pressure rate last week, the highest rate for a Jaguars defense since 2017.

· Titans backup left tackle Dennis Daley has been horrible filling in for Taylor Lewan. Daley ranks last in pass blocking efficiency out of 58 qualifying tackles this season and will struggle across from Jacksonville edge defender Josh Allen, who has 60 pressures (12th).

· Dobbs will not have any time to throw and Tennessee’s only hope of moving the ball is Derrick Henry. However, the Jaguars rank 5th in EPA/rush allowed.

· Dobbs will rely on passes to his TEs as the Jaguars are surrendering a league-high 9.5 yards per target to tight ends. Titans TEs Austin Hooper and Chigoziem Okonkwo combined for 113 yards in the last game versus Jacksonville’s defense.

· Vrabel will be optimistic about his defense as they will return at least three starters this week including safety Amani Hooker to play alongside safety Kevin Byard, who had two interceptions last week.

· Tennessee starting cornerback Kristian Fulton will be back on the field and line up across from WR Zay Jones, whose 0.39 EPA/target ranks 17th. Fulton, Hooker, and Byard should be able to contain Trevor Lawrence’s downfield throws to Jones.

· Titans edge defender Denico Autry ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency and didn’t suit up in the first game against the Jaguars. Autry will square up across from Jacksonville’s backup LT Walker Little, who is surrendering an 11% pressure rate.

· Jaguars center Luke Fortner ranks 4th-worst in pass blocking efficiency and he will struggle versus interior defender Jeffery Simmons, who has 47 pressures (7th). Simmons had 4 pressures and two batted passes against Jacksonville in week 14.

· RB Travis Etienne had the two longest plays from scrimmage for Jacksonville’s offense last week with a 62-yard touchdown run and a reception going for 30 yards, but he will be bottled up by the Titans on Saturday. Tennessee’s defense leads the NFL in EPA/rush allowed and are conceding just 5.0 yards per target to opposing RBs (7th).

· The Jaguars have a 58% success rate when targeting TE Evan Engram (2nd) and he will be a focal point as the Titans are allowing 8.1 yards per target to tight ends (26th).

· Our model makes Jacksonville a 6.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 38.5.