Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Tennessee (-1.5/-2) vs JACKSONVILLE

Gardner Minshew was not that bad versus the Texans, he just suffered from an extreme lack of protection. Jacksonville’s offensive line conceded 18 pressures, which isn’t ideal for a young quarterback, but it will likely get better this week with the return of left tackle Cam Robinson. Fellow rookie DJ Chark will be Minshew’s main option, as the wide receiver is averaging 3.09 yards per route run (4th) and leading the Jags in target share. Leonard Fournette has run 57 routes in the first two weeks with new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo at the helm. The Titans surrendered just 4.0 yards per target to opposing running backs in 2018 (2nd), but linebacker Wesley Woodyard plays a major role in coverage and he is likely to miss this game with a quad injury. Fournette will need to get his production in the receiving game because he is unlikely to find success versus Tennessee’s stout rush defense that ranked 6th last year.

Marcus Mariota is nursing a quad injury and will be about a half point worse per game by our numbers if it affects his scrambling. The Jaguars defense is a healthier this week, as Yannick Ngakoue and AJ Bouye should play this week while dealing with injuries that kept them out of last week’s contest. Ngakoue will have a particularly nice matchup against Titans backup left tackle Dennis Kelly, who is taking the place of suspended starter Taylor Lewan.

The summer total for this game was 39.5 so we’ve only seen a half point drop despite the absence of Nick Foles and a banged-up Mariota. Still, our model doesn’t see enough value to make a play as we have the Titans favored by 1.1 with a predicted total of 37.8. There are better opportunities to profit on Saturday so there is no need to throw your money at this game.

Team Stats
Game Log

Titans
Jaguars

TEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.3 34.7
Succ Pass Plays 34.6% 42.7%
Sack Rate 15.1% 7.1%
Int Rate 0.0% 3.8%
Deep Pass Rate 18.2% 14.3%
Big Pass Yards 56.6% 30.1%
NYPP 5.5 5.5

Rush

Rush Plays 26.0 24.7
RB YPR 3.9 4.7
Stuff Rate 20.5% 26.5%
Succ Rush Plays 51.3% 35.7%
Big Rush Yards 42.3% 61.6%
Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.8

Game

All Snaps 62.3 59.3
Early Down Succ 46.4% 44.2%
Succ Rate 41.5% 39.8%
Big Yards Rate 54.4% 44.0%
Yards Per Play 5.0 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.0 29.3
Run Ratio 42.5% 41.4%
Starting Field Pos 31.6 24.9
Game Control -2.4 2.4

Points 22.3 17.3

JAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.7 38.7
Succ Pass Plays 45.6% 41.9%
Sack Rate 4.6% 10.2%
Int Rate 1.0% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 15.7% 28.8%
Big Pass Yards 43.1% 58.7%
NYPP 7.3 6.8

Rush

Rush Plays 19.0 27.3
RB YPR 4.1 4.0
Stuff Rate 23.9% 20.9%
Succ Rush Plays 33.9% 56.1%
Big Rush Yards 65.1% 35.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.8 4.0

Game

All Snaps 52.7 66.0
Early Down Succ 44.0% 48.7%
Succ Rate 41.1% 47.7%
Big Yards Rate 50.9% 51.5%
Yards Per Play 6.4 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 0.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.7 29.3
Run Ratio 36.1% 41.9%
Starting Field Pos 25.2 31.4
Game Control -0.7 0.7

Points 19.3 20.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CLE	43 – 13 W	7.1	35.7% / 39.5%	14.3% / 11.6%	0.0% / 7.9%	7.7 / 5.7	50.0% / 45.0%	21.4% / 5.0%	4.4 / 5.1	56 / 63	50.0% / 49.0%	42.9% / 41.3%	67.8% / 47.4%	6.1 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 31.7%	34.4 / 22.6
2	IND	17 – 19 L	-1.3	37.5% / 45.2%	12.5% / 9.7%	0.0% / 3.6%	3.7 / 3.9	50.0% / 47.1%	20.8% / 29.4%	5.1 / 4.9	56 / 65	52.3% / 45.8%	42.9% / 46.2%	38.4% / 27.8%	4.3 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.5%	42.9% / 52.3%	31.5 / 26.5
3	@JAC	7 – 20 L	-13.0	30.6% / 43.3%	18.4% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.1 / 6.8	53.8% / 15.0%	19.2% / 45.0%	3.5 / 4.4	75 / 50	36.8% / 37.8%	38.7% / 32.0%	57.1% / 56.8%	4.5 / 5.8	1.3% / 0.0%	34.7% / 40.0%	28.9 / 25.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	KC	26 – 40 L	-11.7	52.9% / 58.8%	2.9% / 0.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	10.2 / 11.1	43.8% / 57.7%	12.5% / 26.9%	5.1 / 4.3	50 / 60	50.0% / 62.5%	50.0% / 58.3%	55.4% / 62.3%	8.6 / 8.2	2.0% / 0.0%	32.0% / 43.3%	23.8 / 38.4
2	@HOU	12 – 13 L	-3.3	40.5% / 36.4%	10.8% / 12.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.8 / 4.2	42.9% / 56.7%	14.3% / 16.7%	4.9 / 4.2	58 / 63	44.2% / 46.8%	41.4% / 46.0%	40.6% / 35.0%	4.8 / 4.2	1.7% / 0.0%	36.2% / 47.6%	26.0 / 26.8
3	TEN	20 – 7 W	13.0	43.3% / 30.6%	0.0% / 18.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.1	15.0% / 53.8%	45.0% / 19.2%	4.4 / 3.5	50 / 75	37.8% / 36.8%	32.0% / 38.7%	56.8% / 57.1%	5.8 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.3%	40.0% / 34.7%	25.7 / 28.9

Tennessee Titans @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Thu, Sep 19

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis