Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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JACKSONVILLE (-9.5) vs Tennessee

The Titans beat the Texans last week with a Blaine Gabbert led offense that managed just 3.9 yards per play (excluding the fake punt touchdown yardage, which isn’t predictive going forward) and allowing 7.0 yards per play on defense. Tennessee was dominated in week 2 but will have to start Gabbert again under center (although Mariota will be available) and our model makes him 5 points worse than Marcus Mariota, which seems to be relatively in line with the market as the summer line for this game was Jaguars -5. Gabbert will have Pro Bowl tackle Taylor Lewan back to protect his blind side this week, which will be crucial in limiting Yannick Ngakoue, whose 67 pressures from the right side led the NFL last season. Jack Conklin on the other side of Tennessee’s offensive line will be a game-time decision, but we’ll probably see Kevin Pamphile getting the start again and he will have a tough matchup when lining up across from Calais Campbell, who recorded 14.5 sacks in 2017 (2nd).

On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville’s offensive line has been excellent so far this year and Blake Bortles was not sacked or even hit last week. However, the Jag OL will be without tackle Cam Robinson, whose production will be difficult to replace. Robinson surrendered just 2 pressures in 42 pass block snaps in the first two weeks and Brian Orakpo could be in line for a great day against backup Josh Wells. It looks like Leonard Fournette won’t play again, but the Jaguars showed in week 2 why we his absence shouldn’t affect the point spread with their offense gaining 7.0 yards per play without the star running back, who is actually not a star based on his sub-par rushing numbers (3.9 ypr for his career).

Our model favors Jacksonville by 9 points with a true total of 39.5 points and we don’t see any value in this game.

Team Stats
Game Log

Titans
Jaguars

TEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 30.5 32.0
Succ Pass Plays 38.0% 51.9%
Sack Rate 2.2% 7.4%
Int Rate 3.9% 5.2%
Deep Pass Rate 17.4% 24.9%
Big Pass Yards 25.1% 50.0%
NYPP 6.9 8.0

Rush

Rush Plays 31.5 28.0
RB YPR 3.5 4.6
Stuff Rate 16.0% 19.1%
Succ Rush Plays 40.1% 47.8%
Big Rush Yards 17.7% 46.1%
Yards Per Rush 3.5 4.9

Game

All Snaps 62.0 60.0
Early Down Succ 38.1% 56.3%
Succ Rate 38.6% 50.1%
Big Yards Rate 22.4% 48.7%
Yards Per Play 5.0 6.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.3 30.0
Run Ratio 51.5% 46.7%
Starting Field Pos 26.2 31.0
Game Control 1.5 -1.5

Points 18.5 22.0

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIA	17 – 27 L	-3.5	36.8% / 55.2%	0.0% / 3.4%	7.9% / 7.1%	5.8 / 7.7	44.8% / 53.3%	17.2% / 26.7%	4.0 / 4.1	67 / 59	41.2% / 66.7%	40.3% / 54.2%	17.0% / 44.3%	5.0 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 50.8%	29.2 / 35.5
2	HOU	20 – 17 W	6.4	39.1% / 48.6%	4.3% / 11.4%	0.0% / 3.2%	8.0 / 8.3	35.3% / 42.3%	14.7% / 11.5%	2.9 / 5.7	57 / 61	35.0% / 46.0%	36.8% / 45.9%	27.9% / 53.1%	5.0 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	59.6% / 42.6%	23.2 / 26.6

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NYG	20 – 15 W	3.9	44.1% / 28.2%	2.9% / 5.1%	3.0% / 2.7%	4.9 / 5.4	36.7% / 34.8%	16.7% / 30.4%	4.6 / 5.0	64 / 62	46.8% / 31.9%	40.6% / 30.6%	38.8% / 38.0%	4.8 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.6%	46.9% / 37.1%	31.5 / 25.3
2	NE	31 – 20 W	13.1	57.8% / 48.6%	0.0% / 5.4%	2.2% / 0.0%	8.4 / 5.9	36.0% / 36.0%	16.0% / 12.0%	4.2 / 3.3	70 / 62	46.3% / 47.9%	50.0% / 43.5%	42.7% / 38.3%	6.9 / 4.9	1.4% / 1.6%	35.7% / 40.3%	25.7 / 30.1

Tennessee Titans @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Sep 23

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis