Game Analysis

Lean – Over (43) – Tennessee (-2.5) vs INDIANAPOLIS

· Derrick Henry broke just 5 tackles in the first three games and then forced 9 missed tackles last week alone. Opposing offenses are running on the Colts 4% more than the situation calls for (2nd-most) and I believe the Titans will continue to feed the big dog in this matchup.

· Ryan Tannehill leads the league with a 9.5-yard average throw depth and the Indianapolis secondary just lost starting cornerback Dallis Flowers (Achilles). Backup CB Darrell Baker surrendered 10.8 yards per target before getting benched for Juju Brents but he will now be forced back onto the field.

· Tennessee’s offensive line ranks last in pass blocking efficiency, but I don’t expect it to be as much of a problem for Tannehill this week. Indianapolis has just a 29% pressure rate (28th) despite facing the Texans without four offensive line starters, the Ravens without two offensive line starters, and the Rams without their starting left tackle.

· Furthermore, the Colts just lost starting edge rusher Kwity Paye to a concussion and DT DeForest Buckner was strategically limited last game to only 20 snaps as he is dealing with a groin/back injury.

· The Indianapolis offense ranks 6th in situation-adjusted run play rate by our metrics but the ground game is not the way to go against a Titans defense conceding -0.22 EPA/rush (3rd).

· Tennessee’s defense is conceding a 45% success rate to tight ends (11th) which will play a role in this game as the Colts target tight ends on 24.3% of passes (8th-most).

· Indianapolis left tackle Bernhard Raimann and center Ryan Kelly both missed last week due to concussions, but the Colts offensive line should be back to all five starters on Sunday. LG Quenton Nelson ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency and he along with Kelly will contain Titans interior defender Jeffery Simmons, who has 16 pressures (6th).

· Tennessee edge defenders Denico Autry and Arden Key rank 16th and 19th respectively in pass-rushing efficiency but they might be limited this week. Indianapolis tackles Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith are allowing only 3.1 pressures per game combined.

· Our model favors the Titans by 3.5 with a predicted total of 44.9.