Game Analysis

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) vs Tennessee

Lean – Under (43)

· The Colts offensive line ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency and I believe Matt Ryan is mostly to blame for a passing attack averaging only 5.6 yppp (26th).

· Ryan is 37 years old and might have an arm strength issue because a league-low 4% of attempts have been thrown with 20 air yards. Last season, Ryan had a 9% deep ball rate.

· Indianapolis RB Nyheim Hines is averaging 1.90 yards per route run (3rd) but Tennessee’s defense is conceding just 3.5 yards per target to running backs (7th).

· Ryan Tannehill will have problems across his offensive line this week. Titans LT Taylor Lewan had allowed zero quarterback pressures across 40 pass blocking reps before being ruled out for the remainder of the 2022 season.

· Rookie RT Nicholas Petit-Frere will not be able to block Colts’ edge defender Kwity Paye, who had five pressures last Sunday.

· Indianapolis Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner has nine pressures (9th) and Tennessee’s LG Aaron Brewer ranks 4th-worst in pass blocking efficiency.

· Our model has the Colts by 5.3 with a predicted total of 43.2 points. Our projected total based on the math model is in line with the market but the matchups favor the under.