Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over Tennessee

Lean – Under 51.5

The Colts closed as a 1-point favorite when these teams squared off on Thursday night two weeks ago in Tennessee and we won a Best Bet with Indy that night. The Indianapolis injury situation is much different this time around. Colts center Ryan Kelly ranks 10th in pass blocking efficiency but he has been ruled out with a neck injury. Interior defender DeForest Buckner ranks 9th with 32 pressures, but he will not play on Sunday due to covid.

The Indianapolis defense still matches up well to stop Tennessee’s attack but it will be much tougher without Buckner. The Colts are conceding just 5.2 yards per target to opposing tight ends and held Jonnu Smith to just 14 yards on 6 targets two weeks ago. Xavier Rhodes is allowing a reception on only one out of every 16 cover snaps (16th) and he will limit AJ Brown. The Indianapolis 4th-rated rush defense will be more vulnerable against Derrick Henry than they were last time around as they will be without DE Denico Autry and LB Bobby Okereke along with Buckner. Those three defenders have combined for 29 run stops this season.

Our model favors the Colts by 5.7 points, with a predicted total of 49.7, and I’ll lean with the Colts and the Under.

Team Stats
Game Log

Titans
Colts

TEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 32.8 40.7
Succ Pass Plays 52.1% 53.8%
Sack Rate 4.5% 3.0%
Int Rate 1.2% 2.6%
Deep Pass Rate 12.3% 16.5%
Big Pass Yards 42.0% 32.2%
NYPP 6.9 6.7

Rush

Rush Plays 31.3 27.4
RB YPR 4.7 4.4
Stuff Rate 20.1% 19.7%
Succ Rush Plays 52.8% 53.4%
Big Rush Yards 42.7% 42.1%
Yards Per Rush 4.9 4.4

Game

All Snaps 64.1 68.1
Early Down Succ 54.3% 53.6%
Succ Rate 52.3% 53.7%
Big Yards Rate 43.0% 35.7%
Yards Per Play 5.9 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 0.1% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.7 28.4
Run Ratio 49.2% 40.7%
Starting Field Pos 27.7 27.1
Game Control 0.8 -0.8

Points 27.9 25.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DEN	16 – 14 W	-0.4	59.1% / 48.5%	2.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.6 / 6.5	52.9% / 57.7%	20.6% / 30.8%	3.8 / 4.1	78 / 59	59.0% / 57.1%	56.4% / 52.5%	29.2% / 38.4%	4.8 / 5.5	0.0% / 1.7%	43.6% / 44.1%	21.4 / 26.9
2	JAC	33 – 30 W	8.0	60.0% / 59.6%	4.0% / 4.3%	0.0% / 4.4%	9.2 / 6.7	52.9% / 59.3%	14.7% / 7.4%	3.6 / 6.1	59 / 74	56.5% / 55.9%	55.9% / 59.5%	28.8% / 38.5%	6.0 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	57.6% / 36.5%	35.3 / 18.6
3	@MIN	31 – 30 W	-3.2	44.7% / 44.8%	2.6% / 6.9%	2.7% / 7.4%	8.2 / 8.2	65.7% / 48.5%	17.1% / 12.1%	3.8 / 6.8	73 / 62	63.2% / 49.0%	54.8% / 46.8%	53.4% / 64.7%	6.1 / 7.5	0.0% / 1.6%	47.9% / 53.2%	34.4 / 23.3
7	PIT	24 – 27 L	-8.6	39.4% / 51.0%	6.1% / 0.0%	0.0% / 6.1%	6.4 / 5.5	43.5% / 72.0%	34.8% / 20.0%	3.6 / 3.8	56 / 74	42.9% / 54.5%	41.1% / 58.1%	49.7% / 26.2%	5.2 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	41.1% / 33.8%	26.5 / 34.9
5	BUF	42 – 16 W	9.8	67.9% / 55.3%	0.0% / 2.1%	0.0% / 4.3%	7.0 / 5.9	47.1% / 54.5%	17.6% / 9.1%	4.1 / 4.3	62 / 69	54.9% / 49.0%	56.5% / 55.1%	19.5% / 15.1%	5.4 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.4%	54.8% / 31.9%	46.1 / 17.3
6	HOU	42 – 36 W	5.0	55.8% / 62.5%	4.7% / 5.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	7.9 / 8.0	48.1% / 55.6%	14.8% / 29.6%	9.7 / 3.4	70 / 67	51.7% / 61.2%	52.9% / 59.7%	61.6% / 42.5%	8.6 / 6.1	1.4% / 0.0%	38.6% / 40.3%	21.1 / 31.3
8	@CIN	20 – 31 L	-7.8	51.6% / 62.2%	3.2% / 0.0%	3.3% / 0.0%	7.2 / 6.7	82.8% / 50.0%	6.9% / 15.6%	7.5 / 3.7	60 / 69	68.0% / 52.8%	66.7% / 56.5%	47.2% / 23.4%	7.4 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	48.3% / 46.4%	20.7 / 27.3
9	CHI	24 – 17 W	8.7	37.5% / 45.5%	12.5% / 5.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.8	32.3% / 25.0%	25.8% / 30.0%	3.0 / 2.8	55 / 75	34.2% / 44.6%	34.5% / 40.0%	58.8% / 37.6%	4.1 / 5.0	0.0% / 2.7%	56.4% / 26.7%	28.9 / 29.2
10	IND	17 – 34 L	-0.8	46.4% / 55.0%	3.6% / 2.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.9 / 7.4	53.1% / 65.5%	31.3% / 24.1%	4.9 / 4.6	60 / 69	55.1% / 65.4%	50.0% / 59.4%	35.7% / 39.3%	4.9 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	53.3% / 42.0%	22.3 / 29.9
11	@BAL	30 – 24 W	-2.3	58.8% / 53.3%	5.9% / 3.3%	3.1% / 3.4%	7.4 / 5.9	50.0% / 45.5%	17.6% / 18.2%	5.1 / 3.9	68 / 63	57.4% / 45.8%	54.4% / 49.2%	45.9% / 31.4%	6.2 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 52.4%	20.5 / 32.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@JAC	20 – 27 L	2.5	55.3% / 62.5%	2.1% / 16.7%	4.3% / 0.0%	7.6 / 6.3	36.4% / 39.1%	27.3% / 17.4%	4.0 / 4.0	69 / 47	53.7% / 52.8%	49.3% / 51.1%	30.1% / 34.9%	6.4 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	31.9% / 48.9%	27.0 / 31.0
2	MIN	28 – 11 W	9.3	51.9% / 24.1%	7.4% / 10.3%	4.0% / 11.5%	7.5 / 3.3	50.0% / 38.9%	17.5% / 11.1%	3.8 / 4.4	67 / 47	56.6% / 32.4%	50.7% / 29.8%	34.5% / 41.7%	5.3 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	59.7% / 38.3%	44.6 / 20.5
3	NYJ	36 – 7 W	12.6	64.0% / 41.9%	0.0% / 6.5%	0.0% / 10.3%	9.4 / 4.9	25.8% / 41.4%	12.9% / 17.2%	3.8 / 3.8	56 / 60	46.5% / 46.8%	42.9% / 41.7%	45.6% / 26.9%	6.3 / 4.3	0.0% / 0.0%	55.4% / 48.3%	33.6 / 18.4
4	@CHI	19 – 11 W	8.5	40.0% / 46.5%	3.3% / 2.3%	0.0% / 2.4%	6.2 / 5.6	28.9% / 31.3%	26.3% / 18.8%	2.7 / 1.8	68 / 59	30.4% / 47.7%	33.8% / 42.4%	39.8% / 39.8%	4.3 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	55.9% / 27.1%	31.7 / 20.5
5	@CLE	23 – 32 L	-5.2	47.1% / 48.7%	2.9% / 2.6%	6.1% / 5.3%	7.1 / 6.7	50.0% / 42.4%	11.1% / 21.2%	3.8 / 3.8	52 / 72	51.3% / 40.7%	48.1% / 45.8%	26.0% / 36.9%	5.9 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	34.6% / 45.8%	25.0 / 28.6
6	CIN	31 – 27 W	-6.2	53.3% / 43.9%	2.2% / 4.9%	2.3% / 2.6%	8.2 / 7.3	40.0% / 43.8%	20.0% / 28.1%	3.9 / 3.1	60 / 73	47.9% / 41.5%	50.0% / 43.8%	50.7% / 39.4%	7.2 / 5.5	1.7% / 0.0%	25.0% / 43.8%	29.0 / 23.7
8	@DET	41 – 21 W	6.0	58.3% / 40.4%	5.6% / 10.6%	0.0% / 2.4%	6.9 / 6.3	48.7% / 30.8%	17.9% / 46.2%	3.1 / 2.2	75 / 60	55.2% / 36.4%	53.3% / 38.3%	43.2% / 50.9%	4.9 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.7%	52.0% / 21.7%	29.4 / 27.8
9	BAL	10 – 24 L	-1.9	43.2% / 60.0%	0.0% / 8.0%	2.3% / 0.0%	5.2 / 6.2	61.9% / 60.5%	14.3% / 26.3%	5.3 / 2.9	65 / 63	58.3% / 65.3%	49.2% / 60.3%	31.0% / 15.4%	5.2 / 4.2	1.5% / 1.6%	32.3% / 60.3%	27.8 / 28.0
10	@TEN	34 – 17 W	0.8	55.0% / 46.4%	2.5% / 3.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.4 / 4.9	65.5% / 53.1%	24.1% / 31.3%	4.6 / 4.9	69 / 60	65.4% / 55.1%	59.4% / 50.0%	39.3% / 35.7%	6.2 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	42.0% / 53.3%	29.9 / 22.3
11	GB	34 – 31 W	-5.0	51.4% / 53.8%	2.7% / 2.6%	2.8% / 2.6%	7.6 / 7.7	45.9% / 72.2%	32.4% / 16.7%	3.8 / 3.7	74 / 57	48.2% / 68.2%	48.6% / 59.6%	37.9% / 44.4%	5.7 / 6.4	1.4% / 5.3%	50.0% / 31.6%	41.6 / 28.6

Tennessee Titans @

Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Nov 29

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis