Tennessee Titans @

Houston Texans

Sun, Dec 29
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 101
Odds: Houston Texans +5.5, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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Note: The Under was released as a 1-Star Best Bet at Under 47 points on Monday but is now out of range.

Lean – Tennessee (-5.5) vs HOUSTON

This line was Titans -3 with a total of 50.5 when these two teams met in week 15 implying the market rated Houston and Tennessee about the same. Bill O’Brien said he is playing his starters but I expect he will change his tune come game time. The Texans would be locked into the 4-seed if the Chiefs win in the early afternoon slate (~75% chance) and the market is clearly indicating we are not expecting a full effort from Houston. Meanwhile, the Titans need to win to make the playoffs.

The Texans offense will be significantly worse than they were when these teams met two weeks ago, more than enough to make up for the 3.5-point drop in the total. Will Fuller will miss this game and Houston’s offense is averaging just 5.9 yards per pass play in the games he’s been injured this season. Fuller’s absence will force Kenny Stills to the outside where he’s gained only 1.28 yards per route run and will give Tennessee’s defense extra opportunity to contain DeAndre Hopkins if he is on the field. The Titans could also benefit from the possible return of Adoree’ Jackson, who was surrendering only 0.85 yards per cover snap (15th) before missing the last 3 games. There is no reason for the Texans to play Deshaun Watson if Kansas City takes care of business but he will still get all the first team reps in practice just in case the Chiefs lose making it even more difficult for backup AJ McCarron once he’s called upon. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency but he was unable to finish last week’s game and he will probably get some rest as well. Also, starting right tackle Tytus Howard remains out.

Houston’s offense went from gaining 5.7 yards per play (11th) to 4.9 yards per play (29th) when Watson missed the second half of 2017. Our metrics have Watson valued at 7 points, Tunsil worth 1 point, and Hopkins worth 1 point. Houston may also rest some defensive starters but none of their remaining players are worth more than a half point. Our model predicts just 43.6 points after all the adjustments are made and we jumped on the under as a 1-Star Best Bet when this total was 47 points on Monday. The market quickly caught on and the total has plunged towards where it should be. I’ll lean with Tennessee based on a 90-35-1 ATS week 16 angle and teams headed for the playoffs are historically terrible ATS as underdogs in week 17.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Titans
  • Texans


  • Pass Plays 32.2 40.1
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.1% 47.6%
  • Sack Rate 11.3% 6.3%
  • Int Rate 1.6% 2.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.5% 18.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 51.9% 37.0%
  • NYPP 7.3 6.5


  • Rush Plays 27.1 26.0
  • RB YPR 4.6 3.8
  • Stuff Rate 22.6% 21.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 47.4% 42.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 49.3% 41.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.8 4.0


  • All Snaps 59.3 66.1
  • Early Down Succ 50.4% 48.8%
  • Succ Rate 46.5% 45.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 51.3% 39.4%
  • Yards Per Play 6.1 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.9 28.7
  • Run Ratio 46.2% 39.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.5 28.1
  • Game Control -0.2 0.2
  • Points 24.5 21.1
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