Game Analysis
Note: The Under was released as a 1-Star Best Bet at Under 47 points on Monday but is now out of range.
Lean – Tennessee (-5.5) vs HOUSTON
This line was Titans -3 with a total of 50.5 when these two teams met in week 15 implying the market rated Houston and Tennessee about the same. Bill O’Brien said he is playing his starters but I expect he will change his tune come game time. The Texans would be locked into the 4-seed if the Chiefs win in the early afternoon slate (~75% chance) and the market is clearly indicating we are not expecting a full effort from Houston. Meanwhile, the Titans need to win to make the playoffs.
The Texans offense will be significantly worse than they were when these teams met two weeks ago, more than enough to make up for the 3.5-point drop in the total. Will Fuller will miss this game and Houston’s offense is averaging just 5.9 yards per pass play in the games he’s been injured this season. Fuller’s absence will force Kenny Stills to the outside where he’s gained only 1.28 yards per route run and will give Tennessee’s defense extra opportunity to contain DeAndre Hopkins if he is on the field. The Titans could also benefit from the possible return of Adoree’ Jackson, who was surrendering only 0.85 yards per cover snap (15th) before missing the last 3 games. There is no reason for the Texans to play Deshaun Watson if Kansas City takes care of business but he will still get all the first team reps in practice just in case the Chiefs lose making it even more difficult for backup AJ McCarron once he’s called upon. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency but he was unable to finish last week’s game and he will probably get some rest as well. Also, starting right tackle Tytus Howard remains out.
Houston’s offense went from gaining 5.7 yards per play (11th) to 4.9 yards per play (29th) when Watson missed the second half of 2017. Our metrics have Watson valued at 7 points, Tunsil worth 1 point, and Hopkins worth 1 point. Houston may also rest some defensive starters but none of their remaining players are worth more than a half point. Our model predicts just 43.6 points after all the adjustments are made and we jumped on the under as a 1-Star Best Bet when this total was 47 points on Monday. The market quickly caught on and the total has plunged towards where it should be. I’ll lean with Tennessee based on a 90-35-1 ATS week 16 angle and teams headed for the playoffs are historically terrible ATS as underdogs in week 17.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.2
40.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.1%
47.6%
-
Sack Rate
11.3%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.5%
18.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
51.9%
37.0%
-
NYPP
7.3
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.1
26.0
-
RB YPR
4.6
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
22.6%
21.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.4%
42.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
49.3%
41.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
59.3
66.1
-
Early Down Succ
50.4%
48.8%
-
Succ Rate
46.5%
45.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
51.3%
39.4%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
28.7
-
Run Ratio
46.2%
39.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.5
28.1
-
Game Control
-0.2
0.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.2
39.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.6%
47.3%
-
Sack Rate
8.2%
5.1%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.7%
21.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.3%
38.7%
-
NYPP
6.8
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.3
24.2
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
21.7%
18.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.4%
43.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.3%
45.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
63.5
64.0
-
Early Down Succ
50.5%
45.4%
-
Succ Rate
49.0%
45.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.8%
42.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.4
28.3
-
Run Ratio
42.8%
37.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
26.4
-
Game Control
-0.7
0.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@CLE |
43 – 13 W |
7.1 |
35.7% / 39.5% |
14.3% / 11.6% |
0.0% / 7.9% |
7.7 / 5.7 |
50.0% / 45.0% |
21.4% / 5.0% |
4.4 / 5.1 |
56 / 63 |
50.0% / 49.0% |
42.9% / 41.3% |
67.8% / 47.4% |
6.1 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 31.7% |
34.4 / 22.6 |
2 |
IND |
17 – 19 L |
-1.3 |
37.5% / 45.2% |
12.5% / 9.7% |
0.0% / 3.6% |
3.7 / 3.9 |
50.0% / 47.1% |
20.8% / 29.4% |
5.1 / 4.9 |
56 / 65 |
52.3% / 45.8% |
42.9% / 46.2% |
38.4% / 27.8% |
4.3 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
42.9% / 52.3% |
31.5 / 26.5 |
3 |
@JAC |
7 – 20 L |
-13.0 |
30.6% / 43.3% |
18.4% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.1 / 6.8 |
53.8% / 15.0% |
19.2% / 45.0% |
3.5 / 4.4 |
75 / 50 |
36.8% / 37.8% |
38.7% / 32.0% |
57.1% / 56.8% |
4.5 / 5.8 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
34.7% / 40.0% |
28.9 / 25.7 |
4 |
@ATL |
24 – 10 W |
10.8 |
44.4% / 48.3% |
0.0% / 8.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.4 / 6.3 |
44.1% / 41.2% |
32.4% / 23.5% |
4.1 / 3.4 |
61 / 75 |
44.7% / 50.9% |
44.3% / 46.7% |
50.1% / 39.1% |
6.0 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
55.7% / 22.7% |
32.6 / 15.7 |
5 |
BUF |
7 – 14 L |
-2.4 |
40.7% / 47.2% |
18.5% / 11.1% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
5.6 / 5.7 |
40.7% / 55.6% |
25.9% / 14.8% |
3.8 / 4.0 |
54 / 63 |
45.0% / 58.7% |
40.7% / 50.8% |
52.0% / 34.5% |
4.7 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 42.9% |
23.3 / 30.0 |
6 |
@DEN |
0 – 16 L |
-7.4 |
29.3% / 41.4% |
17.1% / 3.4% |
8.8% / 3.6% |
4.0 / 5.8 |
33.3% / 30.0% |
33.3% / 16.7% |
1.9 / 3.4 |
62 / 59 |
37.8% / 44.2% |
30.6% / 35.6% |
12.3% / 26.3% |
3.3 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
33.9% / 50.8% |
30.6 / 23.4 |
7 |
LAC |
23 – 20 W |
0.9 |
62.5% / 56.4% |
6.3% / 2.6% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
9.6 / 8.4 |
48.3% / 23.8% |
20.7% / 42.9% |
3.3 / 1.9 |
61 / 60 |
57.4% / 43.8% |
55.7% / 45.0% |
36.5% / 35.1% |
6.6 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
47.5% / 35.0% |
24.1 / 24.9 |
8 |
TB |
27 – 23 W |
2.0 |
47.2% / 45.7% |
8.3% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 4.7% |
4.8 / 6.2 |
23.8% / 33.3% |
57.1% / 16.7% |
3.4 / 3.5 |
57 / 76 |
41.5% / 39.7% |
38.6% / 40.8% |
55.3% / 35.5% |
4.3 / 5.1 |
1.8% / 2.6% |
36.8% / 39.5% |
35.4 / 27.5 |
9 |
@CAR |
20 – 30 L |
-9.2 |
48.8% / 45.7% |
9.3% / 8.6% |
5.1% / 3.1% |
7.2 / 6.1 |
47.6% / 45.5% |
23.8% / 15.2% |
5.8 / 4.7 |
64 / 68 |
50.9% / 48.0% |
48.4% / 45.6% |
44.5% / 50.3% |
6.7 / 5.4 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
32.8% / 48.5% |
21.6 / 39.1 |
10 |
KC |
35 – 32 W |
-3.6 |
39.1% / 52.8% |
17.4% / 3.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 8.2 |
69.2% / 52.0% |
3.8% / 20.0% |
8.7 / 3.9 |
49 / 78 |
64.1% / 53.2% |
55.1% / 52.6% |
71.4% / 41.5% |
7.6 / 6.8 |
2.0% / 1.3% |
53.1% / 32.1% |
24.0 / 30.3 |
12 |
JAC |
42 – 20 W |
12.2 |
73.7% / 43.1% |
5.3% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
13.3 / 4.9 |
48.5% / 44.4% |
18.2% / 7.4% |
6.6 / 4.3 |
52 / 78 |
65.0% / 45.6% |
57.7% / 43.6% |
67.7% / 30.9% |
9.1 / 4.7 |
3.8% / 1.3% |
63.5% / 34.6% |
32.6 / 23.0 |
13 |
@IND |
31 – 17 W |
-1.1 |
39.3% / 48.8% |
21.4% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 5.0% |
4.9 / 7.2 |
50.0% / 37.5% |
10.0% / 25.0% |
5.1 / 3.4 |
58 / 67 |
47.6% / 46.3% |
44.8% / 44.8% |
41.8% / 36.3% |
5.0 / 5.8 |
3.4% / 1.5% |
51.7% / 35.8% |
32.8 / 27.5 |
14 |
@OAK |
42 – 21 W |
6.3 |
66.7% / 58.3% |
0.0% / 5.6% |
3.7% / 0.0% |
14.5 / 7.2 |
62.5% / 58.3% |
18.8% / 25.0% |
5.0 / 4.0 |
59 / 60 |
63.8% / 63.3% |
64.4% / 58.3% |
64.9% / 38.5% |
9.4 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
54.2% / 40.0% |
16.5 / 32.7 |
15 |
HOU |
21 – 24 L |
-5.9 |
48.7% / 53.6% |
5.1% / 3.6% |
2.7% / 7.4% |
6.9 / 8.4 |
39.3% / 48.6% |
7.1% / 22.9% |
5.8 / 4.0 |
67 / 63 |
47.2% / 50.9% |
44.8% / 50.8% |
47.7% / 42.5% |
6.4 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.8% / 55.6% |
18.2 / 35.8 |
16 |
NO |
28 – 38 L |
1.3 |
46.9% / 44.2% |
15.6% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.8 / 6.4 |
50.0% / 56.5% |
26.9% / 13.0% |
5.7 / 4.4 |
58 / 66 |
52.3% / 54.9% |
48.3% / 48.5% |
62.5% / 48.8% |
6.8 / 5.7 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
44.8% / 34.8% |
25.4 / 37.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NO |
28 – 30 L |
2.7 |
38.9% / 59.1% |
16.7% / 2.3% |
3.3% / 2.3% |
6.5 / 8.2 |
60.9% / 52.4% |
30.4% / 9.5% |
7.8 / 7.0 |
59 / 65 |
44.4% / 57.7% |
47.5% / 56.9% |
68.4% / 45.5% |
7.0 / 7.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.0% / 32.3% |
17.9 / 26.4 |
2 |
JAC |
13 – 12 W |
3.3 |
36.4% / 40.5% |
12.1% / 10.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 4.8 |
56.7% / 42.9% |
16.7% / 14.3% |
4.2 / 4.9 |
63 / 58 |
46.8% / 44.2% |
46.0% / 41.4% |
35.0% / 40.6% |
4.2 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
47.6% / 36.2% |
26.8 / 26.0 |
3 |
@LAC |
27 – 20 W |
-2.4 |
58.3% / 41.2% |
5.6% / 9.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 5.7 |
26.3% / 38.9% |
26.3% / 16.7% |
2.1 / 4.1 |
55 / 69 |
45.5% / 41.2% |
47.3% / 40.6% |
57.7% / 42.6% |
6.8 / 5.3 |
1.8% / 1.4% |
34.5% / 26.1% |
24.2 / 27.7 |
4 |
CAR |
10 – 16 L |
-2.3 |
40.0% / 51.4% |
15.0% / 8.1% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
3.2 / 5.5 |
68.2% / 35.7% |
18.2% / 25.0% |
6.2 / 3.4 |
62 / 65 |
54.0% / 43.1% |
50.0% / 44.6% |
36.0% / 28.3% |
4.3 / 4.6 |
1.6% / 4.6% |
35.5% / 43.1% |
29.6 / 29.9 |
5 |
ATL |
53 – 32 W |
5.3 |
72.7% / 41.7% |
0.0% / 4.2% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
12.9 / 6.6 |
55.9% / 30.0% |
11.8% / 35.0% |
4.9 / 2.9 |
67 / 68 |
61.1% / 32.0% |
64.2% / 38.2% |
58.1% / 27.6% |
8.8 / 5.5 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
50.7% / 29.4% |
26.5 / 28.7 |
6 |
@KC |
31 – 24 W |
-2.6 |
59.5% / 44.4% |
0.0% / 2.8% |
4.8% / 2.9% |
6.7 / 7.1 |
56.1% / 45.5% |
12.2% / 18.2% |
4.7 / 4.8 |
83 / 47 |
62.1% / 44.7% |
57.8% / 44.7% |
25.2% / 42.1% |
5.7 / 6.6 |
1.2% / 2.1% |
49.4% / 23.4% |
32.4 / 27.2 |
7 |
@IND |
23 – 30 L |
-6.0 |
54.1% / 46.3% |
8.1% / 2.4% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
7.9 / 7.8 |
50.0% / 26.9% |
33.3% / 38.5% |
4.2 / 2.4 |
61 / 67 |
58.7% / 37.5% |
52.5% / 38.8% |
40.4% / 42.0% |
6.4 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
39.3% / 38.8% |
31.7 / 25.9 |
8 |
OAK |
27 – 24 W |
-2.8 |
57.1% / 46.7% |
7.1% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 9.5 |
43.8% / 56.5% |
18.8% / 21.7% |
4.1 / 4.0 |
74 / 53 |
54.4% / 53.7% |
51.4% / 50.9% |
36.6% / 56.1% |
5.2 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.2% / 43.4% |
22.2 / 23.1 |
9 |
@JAC |
26 – 3 W |
8.4 |
62.1% / 39.2% |
3.4% / 7.8% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
6.7 / 5.5 |
50.0% / 60.0% |
20.6% / 6.7% |
6.4 / 4.9 |
63 / 66 |
58.8% / 47.2% |
55.6% / 43.9% |
42.0% / 35.4% |
6.5 / 5.4 |
1.6% / 3.0% |
54.0% / 22.7% |
35.0 / 24.0 |
11 |
@BAL |
7 – 41 L |
-14.8 |
40.5% / 60.7% |
18.9% / 3.6% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
3.0 / 8.1 |
45.0% / 47.2% |
15.0% / 16.7% |
6.1 / 7.3 |
57 / 64 |
48.8% / 55.8% |
42.1% / 53.1% |
37.9% / 52.1% |
4.1 / 7.7 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
35.1% / 56.3% |
28.2 / 36.2 |
12 |
IND |
20 – 17 W |
0.4 |
48.4% / 46.2% |
3.2% / 3.8% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
9.6 / 4.7 |
45.8% / 53.8% |
41.7% / 10.3% |
4.1 / 4.5 |
55 / 65 |
48.8% / 50.0% |
47.3% / 50.8% |
59.6% / 17.9% |
7.2 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.6% / 60.0% |
26.6 / 25.2 |
13 |
NE |
28 – 22 W |
9.0 |
51.7% / 36.0% |
10.3% / 6.0% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
7.7 / 6.1 |
21.7% / 48.3% |
26.1% / 20.7% |
2.3 / 5.0 |
52 / 79 |
36.8% / 38.3% |
38.5% / 40.5% |
34.4% / 56.9% |
5.3 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.2% / 36.7% |
32.5 / 21.1 |
14 |
DEN |
24 – 38 L |
-19.8 |
41.5% / 60.7% |
5.7% / 3.6% |
4.0% / 3.7% |
5.3 / 10.8 |
81.8% / 33.3% |
4.5% / 14.8% |
6.1 / 3.3 |
75 / 55 |
56.1% / 45.7% |
53.3% / 47.3% |
33.3% / 61.1% |
5.5 / 7.1 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
29.3% / 49.1% |
28.9 / 31.9 |
15 |
@TEN |
24 – 21 W |
5.9 |
53.6% / 48.7% |
3.6% / 5.1% |
7.4% / 2.7% |
8.4 / 6.9 |
48.6% / 39.3% |
22.9% / 7.1% |
4.0 / 5.8 |
63 / 67 |
50.9% / 47.2% |
50.8% / 44.8% |
42.5% / 47.7% |
5.9 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
55.6% / 41.8% |
35.8 / 18.2 |
16 |
@TB |
23 – 20 W |
5.6 |
29.7% / 47.1% |
13.5% / 5.9% |
3.1% / 8.3% |
4.4 / 6.5 |
30.8% / 42.9% |
26.9% / 14.3% |
2.6 / 5.0 |
63 / 72 |
29.8% / 43.4% |
30.2% / 45.8% |
34.5% / 40.0% |
3.6 / 6.0 |
1.6% / 1.4% |
41.3% / 29.2% |
35.2 / 24.4 |