Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – HOUSTON (-3.5) over Tennessee
The Texans have won 7-straight games on the back of their 3rd-rated defense and I fully expect them to have another good outing on Monday. Tennessee’s offense runs through Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry, which isn’t a recipe for success against a Houston defense ranked 4th against the run and conceding the 4th-fewest yards per target to opposing running backs. That puts the onus squarely on Marcus Mariota’s shoulders to move the chains. Mariota practiced fully and was taken off the injury report after it was feared he would miss this game with the same injury that kept him out early in the season. The Titans are more than a half yard per play worse against the Texans than the rest of the league in the Marcus Mariota era and it’s no surprise to see Tennessee’s team total at just 18.5.
Texans’ quarterback Deshaun Watson is one of the best in the league throwing out routes, connecting on 40 of 49 such throws for 542 yards – mostly to DeAndre Hopkins – and I expect him to continue throwing towards the sidelines as Demaryius Thomas, who’s made a career doing damage outside the numbers, gets fully integrated into the passing game after coming over from Denver at the trade deadline. The Titans are best in the league limiting opposing running backs and tight ends to a combined 5.4 yards per target, but Malcolm Butler ranks last among 70 qualifying cornerbacks surrendering 1.98 yards per cover snap and Adoree Jackson ranks 6th-worst. That weakness at cornerback should set up Hopkins and Thomas for productive nights.
The Titans used some creative blitzes two weeks ago when they held New England to just 10 points, but I don’t expect the same type of preparation for this game, as defensive coordinator Dean Pees was sent home on Friday after leaving last week’s game with a medical issue. Houston’s offensive line allowed more pressures than any team through the first 3 weeks (56), but rank moved up a bit to 25th in pass blocking efficiency since Kendall Lamm took over at right tackle in week 4 and they stand a decent chance to play well against Tennessee’s defensive front. Neither Harold Landry or Brian Orakpo have reached 20 pressures this season and Watson should have time to look downfield if they can succeed with double-teams on interior defender Jurrell Casey, who will play a major role in the run game regardless. The Texans have 91 rushes up the middle this season, second only to the Rams, and Casey’s 13.1% run stop rate ranks 2nd in the NFL. However, with the expected success to the receivers down the field, not being able to run up the middle should not keep the Texans from scoring a good number of points.
Our model favors Houston by 6 points and the Texans apply to a 70-24-3 ATS Monday night home team situation and a 98-33-2 ATS situation that is 7-0 ATS on Monday nights. Houston is a Strong Opinion at -4 points or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.1
34.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.1%
51.2%
-
Sack Rate
11.8%
6.7%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.1%
18.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.7%
37.1%
-
NYPP
6.1
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.4
26.2
-
RB YPR
3.3
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
23.4%
21.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.6%
45.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.3%
32.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
59.5
60.7
-
Early Down Succ
45.0%
50.4%
-
Succ Rate
45.6%
48.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.8%
38.1%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.5
30.0
-
Run Ratio
49.5%
43.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.8
29.5
-
Game Control
-2.2
2.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.7
38.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.0%
46.0%
-
Sack Rate
9.5%
7.4%
-
Int Rate
3.0%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.3%
17.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.3%
36.5%
-
NYPP
7.5
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.1
26.3
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
24.4%
24.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.1%
41.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.6%
28.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
63.8
64.9
-
Early Down Succ
46.4%
43.6%
-
Succ Rate
44.9%
43.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.5%
33.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
29.4
-
Run Ratio
49.0%
41.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.8
25.6
-
Game Control
1.5
-1.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@MIA |
17 – 27 L |
-3.5 |
36.8% /
55.2% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
7.9% /
7.1% |
5.8 /
7.7 |
44.8% /
53.3% |
17.2% /
26.7% |
4.0 /
4.1 |
67 /
59 |
41.2% /
66.7% |
40.3% /
54.2% |
17.0% /
44.3% |
5.0 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.3% /
50.8% |
29.2 /
35.5 |
| 2 |
HOU |
20 – 17 W |
6.4 |
39.1% /
48.6% |
4.3% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
8.0 /
8.3 |
35.3% /
42.3% |
14.7% /
11.5% |
2.9 /
5.7 |
57 /
61 |
35.0% /
46.0% |
36.8% /
45.9% |
27.9% /
53.1% |
5.0 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
59.6% /
42.6% |
23.2 /
26.6 |
| 3 |
@JAC |
9 – 6 W |
1.5 |
45.8% /
37.8% |
12.5% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
3.9 |
42.9% /
52.6% |
25.7% /
15.8% |
4.3 /
4.6 |
59 /
56 |
47.7% /
46.3% |
44.1% /
42.9% |
34.3% /
10.3% |
3.9 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
59.3% /
33.9% |
28.2 /
23.3 |
| 4 |
PHI |
26 – 23 W |
-2.6 |
47.8% /
46.3% |
6.5% /
7.4% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
5.8 |
39.1% /
36.4% |
34.8% /
13.6% |
3.1 /
5.3 |
69 /
76 |
47.9% /
45.9% |
44.9% /
43.4% |
38.9% /
41.0% |
5.8 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
33.3% /
28.9% |
24.4 /
28.0 |
| 5 |
@BUF |
12 – 13 L |
-2.6 |
81.3% /
63.6% |
12.5% /
9.1% |
7.1% /
10.0% |
7.6 /
7.2 |
56.0% /
46.5% |
16.0% /
20.9% |
4.0 /
3.3 |
41 /
54 |
51.2% /
43.8% |
65.9% /
50.0% |
29.0% /
18.8% |
5.4 /
4.1 |
4.9% /
0.0% |
61.0% /
79.6% |
30.2 /
34.8 |
| 6 |
BAL |
0 – 21 L |
-13.2 |
26.9% /
45.9% |
42.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
2.0 /
6.4 |
28.6% /
44.4% |
35.7% /
27.8% |
3.9 /
3.4 |
40 /
73 |
33.3% /
37.7% |
27.5% /
45.2% |
42.5% /
44.5% |
2.7 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.0% /
49.3% |
21.9 /
29.9 |
| 7 |
@LAC |
19 – 20 L |
-4.9 |
58.8% /
57.1% |
5.9% /
7.1% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
10.6 |
48.5% /
35.3% |
18.2% /
17.6% |
5.0 /
2.8 |
67 /
45 |
51.0% /
52.9% |
53.7% /
48.9% |
33.1% /
55.4% |
5.8 /
7.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
37.8% |
27.5 /
29.0 |
| 9 |
@DAL |
28 – 14 W |
2.1 |
51.5% /
45.9% |
12.1% /
13.5% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
6.5 /
6.1 |
47.5% /
57.9% |
15.0% /
26.3% |
3.2 /
3.8 |
73 /
56 |
47.2% /
52.3% |
49.3% /
50.0% |
43.6% /
43.1% |
4.7 /
5.3 |
2.7% /
1.8% |
54.8% /
33.9% |
28.6 /
33.8 |
| 10 |
NE |
34 – 10 W |
13.0 |
55.6% /
40.0% |
7.4% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
5.4 |
47.2% /
31.6% |
25.0% /
36.8% |
4.2 /
2.1 |
63 /
64 |
52.9% /
41.3% |
50.8% /
37.5% |
67.5% /
44.4% |
6.1 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.1% /
29.7% |
34.2 /
24.3 |
| 11 |
@IND |
10 – 38 L |
-18.5 |
47.1% /
71.9% |
14.7% /
0.0% |
6.9% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
9.2 |
36.0% /
51.6% |
32.0% /
16.1% |
3.5 /
3.4 |
59 /
63 |
42.2% /
70.8% |
42.4% /
61.9% |
33.8% /
26.5% |
4.5 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.4% /
49.2% |
21.1 /
29.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NE |
20 – 27 L |
-10.6 |
29.7% /
48.8% |
8.1% /
4.9% |
2.9% /
2.6% |
4.3 /
6.5 |
45.7% /
38.7% |
25.7% /
9.7% |
4.8 /
3.9 |
72 /
72 |
43.1% /
47.4% |
37.5% /
44.4% |
37.4% /
38.0% |
4.5 /
5.4 |
1.4% /
2.8% |
48.6% /
43.1% |
35.4 /
25.4 |
| 2 |
@TEN |
17 – 20 L |
-6.4 |
48.6% /
39.1% |
11.4% /
4.3% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
8.0 |
42.3% /
35.3% |
11.5% /
14.7% |
5.7 /
2.9 |
61 /
57 |
46.0% /
35.0% |
45.9% /
36.8% |
53.1% /
27.9% |
7.2 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.6% /
59.6% |
26.6 /
23.2 |
| 3 |
NYG |
22 – 27 L |
-7.6 |
53.7% /
60.6% |
7.3% /
12.1% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
9.0 /
8.0 |
42.1% /
32.1% |
36.8% /
25.0% |
3.1 /
4.1 |
60 /
61 |
50.0% /
47.8% |
50.0% /
47.5% |
53.4% /
41.3% |
7.1 /
6.2 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
45.9% |
28.9 /
22.2 |
| 4 |
@IND |
37 – 34 W |
6.7 |
55.3% /
48.5% |
14.9% /
6.1% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
6.6 |
42.9% /
41.2% |
28.6% /
41.2% |
3.4 /
2.4 |
82 /
83 |
49.2% /
44.6% |
50.0% /
47.0% |
37.1% /
26.6% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
2.4% |
42.7% /
20.5% |
33.4 /
24.1 |
| 5 |
DAL |
19 – 16 W |
-0.3 |
79.4% /
65.0% |
2.9% /
10.0% |
3.0% /
11.1% |
11.0 /
9.7 |
32.3% /
36.7% |
32.3% /
30.0% |
2.8 /
3.3 |
65 /
50 |
53.3% /
43.2% |
56.9% /
48.0% |
30.1% /
52.9% |
7.1 /
5.9 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.7% /
60.0% |
27.9 /
30.8 |
| 6 |
BUF |
20 – 13 W |
4.3 |
27.3% /
29.0% |
21.2% /
6.5% |
7.7% /
6.9% |
4.3 /
4.2 |
36.0% /
40.7% |
28.0% /
22.2% |
3.0 /
3.7 |
58 /
58 |
34.9% /
32.6% |
31.0% /
34.5% |
34.1% /
46.3% |
3.7 /
3.9 |
1.7% /
1.7% |
43.1% /
46.6% |
36.5 /
28.2 |
| 7 |
@JAC |
20 – 7 W |
12.6 |
36.0% /
45.7% |
4.0% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
5.2 /
4.1 |
51.3% /
31.8% |
12.8% /
27.3% |
3.7 /
3.2 |
64 /
68 |
47.7% /
41.7% |
45.3% /
41.2% |
21.2% /
13.1% |
4.3 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
60.9% /
32.4% |
36.3 /
20.0 |
| 8 |
MIA |
42 – 23 W |
7.4 |
45.0% /
40.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
12.0 /
6.4 |
38.9% /
64.0% |
19.4% /
20.0% |
5.3 /
4.6 |
56 /
65 |
39.0% /
54.9% |
41.1% /
49.2% |
64.0% /
34.3% |
7.6 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
64.3% /
38.5% |
29.7 /
25.3 |
| 9 |
@DEN |
19 – 17 W |
3.8 |
53.6% /
47.7% |
14.3% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
6.2 |
39.4% /
35.0% |
30.3% /
40.0% |
3.0 /
3.8 |
61 /
64 |
51.1% /
43.8% |
45.9% /
43.8% |
10.7% /
38.5% |
4.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
54.1% /
31.3% |
31.4 /
22.5 |
| 11 |
@WAS |
23 – 21 W |
4.8 |
51.9% /
35.7% |
11.1% /
11.9% |
8.3% /
5.4% |
6.7 /
3.7 |
40.6% /
58.6% |
18.8% /
13.8% |
4.4 /
4.3 |
59 /
71 |
50.0% /
45.5% |
45.8% /
45.1% |
44.2% /
19.4% |
5.4 /
3.9 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
54.2% /
40.8% |
31.8 /
34.4 |
Tennessee Titans
@ 
Houston Texans