Tennessee Titans @

Denver Broncos

Sun, Oct 13
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 271
Odds: Denver Broncos -2, Total: 40.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Tennessee (+2) over DENVER

Denver’s offense has revolved around the running back so far with the 9th-highest adjusted run-play rate and the 6th-most targets to backs. I do not expect the Broncos to find any success with this strategy versus Tennessee’s stout front 7. The Titans are one of only two teams to hold opposing running backs under 5 yards per target in 2018 and 2019 and they are led by linebacker Jayon Brown, who ranks in the top 10 in yards allowed per cover snap in both seasons. Denver’s ground game ranks 26th in efficiency and has no shot of moving the ball against Tennessee’s 6th-rated rush defense. Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton, gaining 2.28 yards per route run (8th), are both dangerous on the outside and Joe Flacco will need to utilize his wide receivers more often in this matchup.

The Titans have the 3rd-highest adjusted run-play rate and I expect them to utilize their ground game versus a mediocre Broncos rush defense. Tennessee is one of 8 offenses targeting tight ends on more than a quarter of their passes but Delanie Walker should be limited on Sunday. Denver’s defense is conceding just 5.9 yards per target to opposing tight ends (3rd) with the addition of safety Kareem Jackson and linebacker Todd Davis allowing a league-low 0.42 yards per cover snap.

Denver’s dink-and-dunk offense is not well suited in this matchup or for Joe Flacco in general. Our model makes this game closer to pick with a predicted total of 41.8. I’ll lean with Tennessee based on some line value and a favorable matchup.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Titans
  • Broncos
TEN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 32.6 39.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 37.8% 44.7%
  • Sack Rate 12.7% 8.2%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 2.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 13.6% 13.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 55.9% 32.5%
  • NYPP 6.1 5.7



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.8 23.6
  • RB YPR 3.9 4.2
  • Stuff Rate 24.0% 23.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 47.7% 40.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.4% 52.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.2 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 60.4 63.2
  • Early Down Succ 45.8% 48.5%
  • Succ Rate 41.9% 43.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 53.1% 41.1%
  • Yards Per Play 5.1 5.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.3% 0.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.2 28.4
  • Run Ratio 46.7% 37.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.1 24.1
  • Game Control 0.2 -0.2
 
  • Points 19.6 15.2
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