Game Analysis

Strong Opinion- Over (39.5) – CLEVELAND (-3.5) vs Tennessee

· Cleveland’s defense has conceded just a 25% success rate through the first two weeks, which is 11 percentage points below the Cowboys in 2nd and completely unsustainable. Our metrics have the Browns more like a borderline top 5 defense the rest of the way as I’m not willing to put them in the same class as Dallas and San Francisco.

· Tennessee’s defense also looks a little overrated after the market started them 16th based on the preseason point spreads and totals. The market now has the Titans’ defense rated in the top 10 despite allowing 5.4 yppl (21st) and ranking 18th in EPA/play this year.

· Nick Chubb was the only running back in the NFL to average more than 0.6 rushing yards over expected from 2018 to 2022 but the loss of Cleveland’s Pro Bowl RB will not be felt as much in this matchup. Tennessee’s defense ranks 25th in EPA/dropback and 4th in EPA/rush, so throwing more because Chubb is out should be beneficial.

· Deshaun Watson is averaging 10.5 air yards per attempt (2nd) and he should be able to hit some deep passes on Sunday. The Browns have a 58% success rate when targeting WR Amari Cooper and Titans CB Kristian Fulton is gimpy with a hamstring injury.

· Tennessee interior defender Jeffery Simmons has 9 pressures (4th) but he will be bottled up by Browns Pro Bowl guards Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller.

· Cleveland’s defense has a 41% pressure rate (5th) and the Titans rank 26th in pass blocking efficiency. Tennessee’s line will be particularly vulnerable with Myles Garrett lining up across from LT Andre Dillard, who has blown 5 pass blocks (3rd-most).

· Ryan Tannehill will attempt to slow down the Browns’ pass rush with play action like he did last week against the Chargers. Tannehill completed 7 of 9 passes for 168 yards using run fakes in last Sunday’s victory.

· Tannehill will also be able to mitigate his offense’s mismatch in the trenches using the screen game. The weakest part of Cleveland’s defense has been defending RBs out of the backfield, as they’ve surrendered 82 receiving yards (9th-worst). Derrick Henry is averaging 0.34 EPA/target (2nd) and should continue to contribute catching passes.

· The Browns will likely be without starting nickelback Greg Newsome, who was conceding 0.66 yards per slot cover snap (9th). DeAndre Hopkins has been at his best for the Titans lined up on the inside averaging 2.79 yards per route run in the slot.

· Our model makes Cleveland a 5.5-point favorite, with a predicted total of 42.9 points,. While their is some value on the Browns they do apply to a 45-115-5 ATS situation and I used the Titans in my spread pool.

The Over is a Strong Opinion at 39.5 -115 odds or better.