Tennessee Titans @

Cincinnati Bengals

Sun, Nov 1
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 257
Odds: Cincinnati Bengals +5.5, Total: 53.5

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet- *CINCINNATI (+6) over Tennessee

1-Star Best Bet – *First Half Under (27)

The look-ahead line for this game was Titans -4 and both teams played to expectations last week with each of their games coming down to the wire, yet now we’re seeing this number at Titans -6. If the true line is Bengals +4, then Bengals +6 has a 55.6% chance of covering, and we think the true line should be even lower.

Tennessee lost to Pittsburgh last week despite being +3 in turnover margin and they were certainly lucky in that department. Ryan Tannehill threw two turnover-worthy passes and also fumbled in the Redzone but the Titans were able to maintain possession. The Titans are now +9 in turnover margin through 6 games, which has made them look better than they actually are. Teams that have a turnover margin average of +1.5 or more per game are just 88-139-7 ATS from week 7 on, including 63-110-6 ATS as a favorite. In addition to the turnover luck the Titan’s performance in the Redzone is unsustainable. Tennessee has scored a touchdown on four out of every five trips inside opponents’ 20-yardline. No team in the last 15 years has finished the season with an 80% touchdown rate in the Redzone and it’s highly likely that the Titans regress in their Redzone efficiency going forward.

Our largest discrepancy with the market is the Titans’ offense versus Cincinnati’s defense. Tannehill is playing well but a team running the ball on 47% of their plays is putting a ceiling on their expected points. The Bengals do not have a strong rush defense and I expect Tennessee to feed Derrick Henry on Sunday, which will keep the clock moving and make it more difficult to build a lead. Another reason the Titans will likely focus on the ground game is the expectations of high winds approaching 20 mph.

Cincinnati’s defense traded edge rusher Carlos Dunlap to Seattle but Sam Hubbard has been more efficient this year anyway. Opposite edge defender Carl Lawson has 25 pressures (12th) and he will exploit Titans backup LT Ty Sambrailo. Also, the Bengals top CB William Jackson was allowing only 0.81 yards per cover snap (13th) before missing last week’s game with a concussion. Jackson should be back on the field this Sunday to slow down AJ Brown.

Tennessee’s defense ranks below average in pressure rate, which will help Joe Burrow behind a depleted offensive line. Burrow is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt when kept clean but just 4.9 yards per attempt under pressure this season and he should enjoy more clean pockets than usual in this game. Tyler Boyd leads all Bengals receivers with 61 targets and takes 85% of his snaps from the slot. The Titans have been atrocious defending receivers out of the slot this year, conceding 1.88 yards per cover snap.

Tennessee is basically even in net yppl (6.04 to 5.95 yppl) while playing a schedule that is 2.6 points worse than average so their 5-1 record is a mirage.

Our model favors the Titans by just 0.4 points and Cincinnati is a 1-Star Best Bet at +5.5 or more (Strong Opinion at +5).

The models’ predicted total is 48.5 points and playing the first half under here provides more value than the full game. Since 2000, games with totals lined from 53.5 to 54.5 have had more than 27 points scored in the first half on only 27 of 84 occasions, with 51 of those 84 games going under 27 first-half points and 6 landing on 27. The First-Half Under 27 is a 1-Star Best Bet at 27 or higher. The alternate play is the full game Under at 53.5 or higher (if you don’t have first-half totals or if the 1H total has dropped below 27).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Titans
  • Bengals


  • Pass Plays 35.7 36.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 54.6% 51.0%
  • Sack Rate 3.0% 3.7%
  • Int Rate 0.9% 4.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 11.4% 20.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.0% 40.5%
  • NYPP 7.7 7.2


  • Rush Plays 34.3 28.7
  • RB YPR 3.6 5.9
  • Stuff Rate 17.5% 16.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 57.2% 55.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 34.5% 57.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 5.7


  • All Snaps 70.0 65.0
  • Early Down Succ 59.6% 54.0%
  • Succ Rate 55.7% 52.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.1% 47.2%
  • Yards Per Play 5.6 6.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 1.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 25.9 27.6
  • Run Ratio 49.7% 44.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.4 22.9
  • Game Control 1.5 -1.5
  • Points 26.7 24.7
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