Game Analysis

Lean – Under (45) – CHICAGO (-3.5) vs Tennessee

• We’ve seen this total come up a couple points from the opener because there’s optimism for Tennessee’s offense after hiring head coach Brian Callahan, who was Cincinnati’s offensive coordinator last year when they led the NFL in pass play rate over expectation. However, I see the Titans with a banged-up DeAndre Hopkins in week 1 as a similar offense to the Commanders last season.
• Washington’s offense had a league-high 66% pass rate in 2023 and finished only 25th in scoring.
• Sam Howell had a 9.6% sack rate (28th) last year but Will Levis’ sack rate was even worse at 9.9%. Levis was hit on 25.5% of dropbacks. The league average was 15.3%.
• The Titans did try to make improvements to the offensive line by signing C Lloyd Cushenberry and drafting tackle JC Latham, but they are still rolling with Dillon Radunz and Nicholas Petit-Frere on the right side. Neither of them has any business starting in the NFL. Radunz has a career 8% pressure rate allowed. Petit-Frere has a career 9% pressure rate allowed. Bears edge rusher Montez Sweat had 54 pressures against the right side of offensive lines in 2023 (7th).
• Chicago’s defense was 5th in EPA/play in the back half of last season after trading for edge rusher Montez Sweat.
• The Bears bring former All-Pro S Kevin Byard to a promising young secondary headlined by CB Jaylon Johnson, who allowed a league-low 0.38 yards per cover snap last season. Johnson will contain new Titans WR Calvin Ridley, who averaged just 1.57 yards per route run last year in Jacksonville.
• Callahan’s Bengals were last with just a 6.3-yard average depth of target, and I don’t think they’ll hit many explosive plays versus this Bears defense on Sunday.
• Will Levis had a 36% play action rate this preseason which would’ve led the NFL throughout last season. Matt Eberflus specializes in coaching linebackers to not bite on play action. Just 23% of Chicago’s first downs conceded last season were on play action (9th-fewest).
• Caleb Williams will have the league’s 5th-best group of receivers according to our metrics after drafting WR Rome Odunze in the first round and adding WR Keenan Allen, who ranked 7th in success rate last year.
• Tennessee’s defense ranked 31st in dropback success rate allowed last year. However, we have this secondary rated 3rd in the NFL after adding S Quandre Diggs, CB Chidobe Awuzie, and All-Pro CB L’Jarius Sneed. The Titans are equipped with depth in the secondary to shut down Chicago’s receiving corps.
• Tennessee’s pass rush is led by interior defender Jeffery Simmons, who ranked 10th in pass-rushing efficiency in 2023. Simmons will wreak havoc across from Chicago RG Nate Davis, who surrendered a 14% pressure rate on true sets in 2023. Furthermore, Bears’ new addition Coleman Shelton’s 34 pressures allowed last year led all centers in the NFL.
• Our model favors the Bears by 5.6 points, with a predicted total of 42.8 points, but Tennessee applies to a 94-43-3 ATS game 1 angle. I used the Titans in my spread pool.