Game Analysis
(*)Under (44*/42.5) – ARIZONA vs Tennessee
Lean – Tennessee (-3)
Contrary to his collegiate days at Oregon, Marcus Mariota is now at the helm of a Titans offense with the slowest pace in the league after filtering out garbage time. Tennessee is running 2.7 plays per game fewer than league average (27th). I expect the Titans to continue taking their time between plays especially on the road where it can be more tedious to make adjustments at the line of scrimmage.
Arizona’s ground game has basically been nonexistent without left tackle D.J. Humphries in the lineup as the Cardinals are nearly a point worse per game running the football in the seven games he’s missed. I expect Arizona’s running attack, averaging only 3.2 ypr for the season) to be completely stifled against a Titans rush defense ranked 5th in my metrics. Blaine Gabbert is still a below average quarterback even with future Hall-of-Famer Larry Fitzgerald to throw to and he won’t be enough to get the Cardinals’ offense moving consistently with no rushing attack.
Our model projects just 40 total points in this game, which is enough value to make the Under a 1-Star Best Bet at 43.5 points or higher (Strong Opinion at 43).
Note: The Under was released as a Best Bet at Under 44 points earlier in the week but that play is now out of Best Bet range.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.2
40.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.2%
46.2%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
5.8%
-
Int Rate
4.4%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.6%
16.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.8%
26.1%
-
NYPP
6.2
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.3
25.4
-
RB YPR
4.0
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
25.9%
22.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.7%
41.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.1%
28.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
61.5
66.2
-
Early Down Succ
47.4%
47.8%
-
Succ Rate
43.9%
45.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.7%
27.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.9
27.5
-
Run Ratio
46.1%
38.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.2
29.2
-
Game Control
-1.4
1.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.4
38.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.3%
44.2%
-
Sack Rate
6.9%
5.7%
-
Int Rate
3.3%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.6%
16.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.0%
36.0%
-
NYPP
6.3
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.8
27.4
-
RB YPR
2.9
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
26.1%
25.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
34.2%
37.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
23.5%
45.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
2.9
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
66.2
65.6
-
Early Down Succ
41.5%
41.8%
-
Succ Rate
39.8%
41.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.6%
39.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.4
28.3
-
Run Ratio
37.0%
42.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.6
28.6
-
Game Control
-2.0
2.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
OAK |
16 – 26 L |
-4.4 |
50.0% /
55.9% |
2.4% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
7.4 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
28.6% /
16.7% |
4.5 /
3.7 |
63 /
64 |
46.9% /
57.1% |
47.6% /
53.1% |
33.1% /
26.7% |
5.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
46.9% |
22.4 /
29.3 |
| 2 |
@JAC |
37 – 16 W |
7.9 |
42.9% /
41.7% |
3.6% /
5.6% |
3.7% /
5.9% |
7.5 /
5.9 |
68.4% /
64.0% |
10.5% /
12.0% |
4.8 /
4.0 |
66 /
61 |
64.0% /
52.1% |
57.6% /
50.8% |
41.6% /
23.5% |
5.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
57.6% /
41.0% |
39.9 /
23.4 |
| 3 |
SEA |
33 – 27 W |
4.9 |
51.6% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
44.4% /
40.9% |
22.2% /
31.8% |
5.4 /
3.1 |
67 /
72 |
54.9% /
51.8% |
47.8% /
47.2% |
44.9% /
38.8% |
6.3 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.7% /
30.6% |
29.6 /
23.3 |
| 4 |
@HOU |
14 – 57 L |
-20.6 |
40.9% /
58.3% |
9.1% /
5.6% |
20.0% /
2.9% |
5.0 /
7.6 |
35.0% /
50.0% |
15.0% /
14.3% |
4.4 /
4.1 |
42 /
78 |
43.8% /
53.8% |
38.1% /
53.8% |
52.6% /
28.5% |
4.7 /
5.7 |
2.4% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
53.8% |
21.9 /
38.0 |
| 5 |
@MIA |
10 – 16 L |
-4.2 |
36.8% /
25.0% |
15.8% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
3.1 /
2.8 |
30.0% /
43.8% |
45.0% /
28.1% |
3.5 /
3.2 |
58 /
60 |
40.0% /
37.2% |
34.5% /
35.0% |
19.1% /
6.1% |
3.2 /
3.0 |
3.4% /
1.7% |
34.5% /
53.3% |
25.1 /
27.0 |
| 6 |
IND |
36 – 22 W |
-1.2 |
57.6% /
51.4% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
5.7 |
42.9% /
40.0% |
20.0% /
20.0% |
4.8 /
4.3 |
68 /
57 |
51.9% /
53.2% |
50.0% /
47.4% |
42.2% /
22.6% |
7.0 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
51.5% /
35.1% |
27.4 /
26.5 |
| 7 |
@CLE |
12 – 9 W |
2.1 |
41.7% /
39.0% |
5.6% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
5.3 /
5.3 |
31.3% /
25.9% |
46.9% /
22.2% |
2.5 /
2.5 |
68 /
68 |
38.0% /
37.3% |
36.8% /
33.8% |
14.5% /
23.9% |
4.0 /
4.2 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
39.7% |
33.6 /
25.1 |
| 9 |
BAL |
23 – 20 W |
6.3 |
51.6% /
49.1% |
9.7% /
3.6% |
3.6% /
3.8% |
6.0 /
4.9 |
36.4% /
40.9% |
22.7% /
22.7% |
3.3 /
3.3 |
53 /
77 |
53.8% /
47.4% |
45.3% /
46.8% |
49.0% /
8.2% |
4.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.5% /
28.6% |
34.6 /
24.8 |
| 10 |
CIN |
24 – 20 W |
2.6 |
43.8% /
38.9% |
8.3% /
2.8% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
7.1 |
52.8% /
50.0% |
16.7% /
28.6% |
5.0 /
3.8 |
84 /
50 |
46.4% /
48.7% |
47.6% /
42.0% |
34.6% /
51.0% |
5.0 /
6.2 |
1.2% /
4.0% |
42.9% /
28.0% |
26.1 /
30.9 |
| 11 |
@PIT |
17 – 40 L |
-9.1 |
41.0% /
55.3% |
12.8% /
6.4% |
11.8% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
6.0 |
32.0% /
33.3% |
32.0% /
16.7% |
2.2 /
2.8 |
64 /
71 |
42.9% /
55.6% |
37.5% /
47.9% |
53.3% /
26.7% |
5.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.1% /
33.8% |
22.2 /
44.3 |
| 12 |
@IND |
20 – 16 W |
-0.5 |
48.0% /
37.8% |
0.0% /
21.6% |
8.0% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
4.5 |
40.0% /
37.5% |
26.7% /
20.8% |
3.1 /
3.7 |
55 /
61 |
48.8% /
36.2% |
43.6% /
37.7% |
35.6% /
28.3% |
5.1 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
54.5% /
39.3% |
31.1 /
29.8 |
| 13 |
HOU |
24 – 13 W |
-0.2 |
36.0% /
51.9% |
8.0% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
5.8 /
6.4 |
44.0% /
26.1% |
24.0% /
39.1% |
7.9 /
2.3 |
50 /
75 |
36.8% /
42.9% |
40.0% /
44.0% |
55.5% /
40.5% |
6.9 /
5.1 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
30.7% |
24.3 /
27.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DET |
23 – 35 L |
2.7 |
42.9% /
47.6% |
2.0% /
2.4% |
6.3% /
2.4% |
5.4 /
6.8 |
38.9% /
35.7% |
16.7% /
21.4% |
2.5 /
3.0 |
67 /
70 |
41.2% /
42.3% |
41.8% /
42.9% |
29.4% /
27.4% |
4.6 /
5.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
26.9% /
40.0% |
28.5 /
36.6 |
| 2 |
@IND |
16 – 13 W |
-6.3 |
40.0% /
41.5% |
10.0% /
9.8% |
2.8% /
2.7% |
7.7 /
4.6 |
34.6% /
34.5% |
11.5% /
24.1% |
3.2 /
2.6 |
66 /
70 |
39.6% /
36.5% |
37.9% /
38.6% |
63.6% /
16.5% |
5.9 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.4% /
41.4% |
29.6 /
24.5 |
| 3 |
DAL |
17 – 28 L |
0.5 |
38.9% /
42.1% |
11.1% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
9.2 |
33.3% /
33.3% |
33.3% /
33.3% |
2.3 /
3.7 |
75 /
46 |
35.7% /
42.9% |
37.3% /
37.0% |
51.5% /
62.8% |
4.4 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.0% /
58.7% |
21.6 /
29.4 |
| 4 |
SF |
18 – 15 W |
-1.4 |
49.1% /
30.8% |
10.5% /
5.8% |
2.0% /
2.0% |
5.6 /
4.0 |
39.1% /
37.0% |
30.4% /
25.9% |
2.3 /
3.5 |
80 /
79 |
51.6% /
33.9% |
46.3% /
32.9% |
17.9% /
27.9% |
4.6 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
34.2% |
27.9 /
22.3 |
| 5 |
@PHI |
7 – 34 L |
-16.7 |
41.3% /
48.4% |
4.3% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
6.0 /
9.6 |
21.4% /
28.6% |
35.7% /
22.9% |
2.2 /
3.5 |
60 /
66 |
37.2% /
33.3% |
36.7% /
37.9% |
20.2% /
52.3% |
5.1 /
6.4 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
23.3% /
53.0% |
19.3 /
34.1 |
| 6 |
TB |
38 – 33 W |
18.1 |
62.5% /
53.5% |
8.3% /
2.3% |
4.5% /
4.8% |
11.3 /
8.0 |
38.5% /
23.8% |
20.5% /
38.1% |
4.2 /
3.2 |
63 /
64 |
56.5% /
40.4% |
47.6% /
43.8% |
53.0% /
51.9% |
6.9 /
6.5 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
61.9% /
32.8% |
33.4 /
28.3 |
| 7 |
@LA |
0 – 33 L |
-16.0 |
28.6% /
42.1% |
8.6% /
2.6% |
6.3% /
2.7% |
4.8 /
6.0 |
25.0% /
48.8% |
41.7% /
14.6% |
2.1 /
4.8 |
47 /
79 |
27.3% /
39.7% |
27.7% /
45.6% |
35.8% /
29.1% |
4.1 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.5% /
51.9% |
26.0 /
33.8 |
| 9 |
@SF |
20 – 10 W |
7.3 |
40.0% /
32.1% |
0.0% /
8.9% |
3.3% /
2.0% |
6.7 /
4.8 |
34.8% /
58.8% |
13.0% /
17.6% |
3.7 /
3.7 |
76 /
73 |
38.9% /
40.7% |
36.8% /
38.4% |
45.8% /
30.7% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
1.3% /
1.4% |
60.5% /
23.3% |
34.4 /
23.5 |
| 10 |
SEA |
16 – 22 L |
-5.5 |
42.9% /
47.2% |
4.1% /
13.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
5.9 |
20.8% /
20.8% |
41.7% /
33.3% |
1.4 /
3.2 |
73 /
60 |
34.5% /
42.2% |
35.6% /
36.7% |
6.9% /
51.0% |
4.0 /
4.8 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
32.9% /
40.0% |
27.7 /
27.1 |
| 11 |
@HOU |
21 – 31 L |
-1.8 |
50.0% /
54.5% |
5.6% /
3.0% |
5.9% /
3.1% |
6.8 /
6.8 |
33.3% /
47.1% |
38.9% /
20.6% |
2.7 /
3.9 |
54 /
67 |
48.8% /
50.0% |
44.4% /
50.7% |
42.5% /
49.6% |
5.4 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
33.3% /
50.7% |
36.3 /
22.7 |
| 12 |
JAC |
27 – 24 W |
5.2 |
43.6% /
40.0% |
2.6% /
8.6% |
2.6% /
3.1% |
6.1 /
3.7 |
40.6% /
36.4% |
21.9% /
31.8% |
3.4 /
4.1 |
71 /
57 |
44.2% /
45.5% |
42.3% /
38.6% |
33.9% /
31.5% |
4.9 /
3.8 |
1.4% /
3.5% |
45.1% /
38.6% |
30.9 /
25.5 |
| 13 |
LA |
16 – 32 L |
-9.9 |
39.5% /
50.0% |
15.8% /
3.1% |
6.3% /
3.2% |
5.1 /
6.7 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
8.3% /
25.0% |
4.9 /
3.8 |
62 /
56 |
42.6% /
54.5% |
43.5% /
50.0% |
39.1% /
41.6% |
5.0 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
42.9% |
27.7 /
34.9 |
Tennessee Titans
@ 
Arizona Cardinals