Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

Philadelphia Eagles

Thu, Oct 14
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 109
Odds: Philadelphia Eagles +7, Total: 52.5

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

2-Star Best Bet – Under (53) – Tampa Bay at PHILADELPHIA

Strong Opinion – 6 point teaser – Tampa Bay (-1) with Carolina (+8)

Lean – Tampa Bay (-7 Even) (Strong Opinion at -6.5 -110)

I think the Buccaneers could reach their market expectations between 28-31 points on Thursday night, but the Eagles will likely score 20 or fewer.

Much has been made about the moving parts in Tampa Bay’s secondary, but they look at nearly their preseason-level to me. CB Jamel Dean was back on the field last Sunday after missing week 4 and he is conceding just 0.63 yards per cover snap. Dean should shut down rookie WR DeVonta Smith, who leads Eagles with a 23% target share. Newly signed future Hall of Fame CB Richard Sherman has conceded only 0.49 yards per cover snap since the start of 2019 and I think he can be as good or better than CB Carlton Davis (out) with practice time in Todd Bowles’s scheme. Nickelback Sean Murphy-Bunting dislocated his elbow in week 1 but Ross Cockrell is allowing 0.81 yards per cover snap in the slot fewer than Murphy-Bunting did last season with the Buccaneers. Starting safety Antoine Winfield is in concussion protocol and is worth about a half point.

Philadelphia’s 3rd-rated ground game won’t help quarterback Jalen Hurts as Tampa Bay’s defense is a point better than average against the run by our metrics.

Buccaneers LB Lavonte David will miss at least Thursday night’s game while recovering from a low ankle sprain and he is worth 0.7 points, but Hurts won’t have tight end Dallas Goedert, who is averaging 0.41 more yards per route run than Zach Ertz.

The Eagles have been without both starting guards as well as RT Lane Johnson and Hurts is likely to be sacked twice or more in this matchup. Tampa Bay’s interior defenders are averaging 7.8 pressures per game while edge defender Shaquil Barrett has 3.5 sacks (17th).

Tom Brady is at his worst against defenses that get pressure from the interior while using a standard pass rush. Philadelphia has a league-low 12% blitz rate and DT Javon Hargrave leads all interior defenders in pass rushing efficiency. DT Fletcher Cox is averaging 2.8 pressures per game since the start of last season. The Patriots started using inside chip protections to protect Brady from interior pressure, but I don’t think the Buccaneers will be able to effectively install a new pass protection on the short week.

The Eagles pass defense ranks 5th and will limit Tampa Bay’s vertical attack. Mike Evans has 5 receptions with at least 20 air yards (2nd) but I don’t expect him to be open downfield versus elite CB Darius Slay, who conceded just 3.7 yards per target last week and had two interceptions.

Our model favors the Buccaneers by 9.7 points, with a predicted total of 49.5 points, and the Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 52 points or more and 1-Star Under at 51.5 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Buccaneers
  • Eagles
TB
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 47.6 47.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 53.8% 54.0%
  • Sack Rate 3.9% 4.4%
  • Int Rate 0.8% 2.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 25.2% 13.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.0% 40.5%
  • NYPP 7.6 7.1



Rush


  • Rush Plays 20.6 15.8
  • RB YPR 3.6 2.7
  • Stuff Rate 21.2% 38.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 57.0% 36.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 20.2% 25.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 2.7




Game

  • All Snaps 68.2 62.8
  • Early Down Succ 57.9% 53.2%
  • Succ Rate 55.1% 50.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 39.5% 38.8%
  • Yards Per Play 6.5 6.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.7 28.2
  • Run Ratio 30.1% 24.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 3.0 -3.0
 
  • Points 33.4 24.4
Share This