Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Tampa Bay Team Total Under (23.5)

Lean – NY GIANTS (+6) over Tampa Bay

• New York’s defensive line has a favorable matchup on Sunday as Tampa Bay LT Tristan Wirfs will be sidelined. Wirfs leads the NFL in pass blocking efficiency and backup Justin Skule will struggle against Giants edge rusher Brian Burns, who has 39 pressures (10th).
• New York edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux should be back in uniform this week. Thibodeaux had 11.5 sacks to lead the Giants last season and 2.0 in the first five games this season before suffering a wrist injury and undergoing surgery. Thibodeaux is worth a half point to New York’s defense by our numbers.
• Giants’ interior defender Dexter Lawrence has 9.0 sacks (2nd) and he will wreak havoc against rookie C Graham Barton, who has surrendered 17 pressures (4th-most).
• Baker Mayfield will have WR Mike Evans back on the field. Evans has a 58% success rate (13th) but the Buccaneers will monitor his snaps in his first game back from a hamstring injury.
• Daniel Jones’ time in New York is over because $23 million of his contract for 2025 would become fully guaranteed if Jones were to play and get injured.
• Surprisingly Brian Daboll has opted for Tommy DeVito over Drew Lock. DeVito has averaged 4.2 yppp for his career. Lock has averaged 6.1 yppp.
• DeVito averaged a league-low 5.0 yards per passing attempt against the blitz last season and he will struggle versus Todd Bowles’s defense with a 46% blitz rate (3rd-highest).
• Giants backup RT Evan Neal is likely to surrender a couple of sacks across from edge defender Yaya Diaby, who has 38 pressures (16th).
• Buccaneers CB Zyon McCollum is conceding 0.84 yards per cover snap (17th) and Tampa Bay’s defense is getting back starting cornerback Jamel Dean to limit WR Malik Nabers, who is averaging 2.03 yards per route run (16th).
• Our model favors the Buccaneers by 4.3 points, with a predicted total of 38.4 points, and the Giants apply to a 72-26 ATS contrary angle that plays on game teams with a bad spread record coming off their bye week.

1-Star Best Bet on Tampa Bay’s Team Total Under (23.5) at +23 or more. Alternate play is 1-Star on NY Giants +6 or more.