Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY GIANTS (+12.5) over Tampa Bay

Tom Brady averaged 8.2 yards per pass play last week with five touchdowns and he has now played himself into the MVP conversation. Brady was under pressure on just 6.7% of his dropbacks against the Raiders and his team will have a huge advantage in the trenches again this week. The Giants traded edge defender Markus Golden so their only remaining pass rushing threat is DT Leonard Williams, who has 21 pressures thus far (8th). However, Williams will be limited tonight while lined up across from LG Ali Marpet, who ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency.

Tampa Bay’s defensive front has a massive edge over New York’s offensive line. The Giants and Jets are the only offenses to surrender pressure on more than 40% of dropbacks. RT Cameron Fleming ranks 50th out of 56 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency and has no chance of staying in front of edge rusher Shaquil Barrett. LG Will Hernandez only guard to concede more than 20 pressures thus far and he will line up across from interior defender William Gholston, who ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency.

Giants CB James Bradberry has allowed under 50 receiving yards and no touchdowns in each of his last six games and allowed just 5.0 yards per target while shadowing Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper, and DeSean Jackson. Bradberry will make it difficult for Mike Evans this week. With Chris Godwin out and Evans blanketed, Brady will need to utilize Rob Gronkowski (the newly signed Antonio Brown will not play this week). The four-time All-Pro tight end has caught in seven of his nine contested targets this year.

Our model favors the Buccaneers by 9.9 points, with a predicted total of 47.1 points, and I’ll lean with the Giants now that the line has gone up a couple of points. After all, road favorites of 10 points or more coming off a win the previous week are just 48-74-2 ATS over the years in the NFL.

Week 8 and 2020 Season Results

2020 Best Bets 25-12 for +13.1 Stars

The week 8 Best Bets were a perfect 4-0 for +5 Stars while the Strong Opinions were 2-0. That’s 9-0 on NFL Best Bets the last two weeks and we’re now 68% of the season.

All the wins were pretty easy this week. The Thursday 2-Star Best Bet on Atlanta +3 won by 8 at Carolina. The 1-Star play on Cincinnati +6 won by 11 over Tennessee and the 1-Star on the first-half under 27 in that game also won. The 1-Star Best Bet on Seattle -3 was also a winner, as the Seahawks beat the Niners by 10.

The two Strong Opinions were wins on Miami +3.5 (won by 11 over the Rams) and the Chargers-Broncos Over 44 (61 total points).

For the season the Best Bets are 25-12 for +13.1 Stars and the Strong Opinions are 10-13-1.

The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.

2016-20 NFL Best Bets are 247-178-2 (58.1%) – 145-84-2 on Sides, 82-73 on totals, 4-3 1st-half totals, 6-10 team totals, 9-7 teasers, 1-1 season win totals.

2016-20 NFL Strong Opinions are 167-129-8 (56.4%) – 74-72-7 sides, 64-48-1 totals, 1-1 1st-half sides, 4-0 1st-half totals, 3-2 Team Totals, 2-1 teasers, 19-5 Post-season prop bets.

Team Stats
Game Log

Buccaneers
Giants

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.0 41.3
Succ Pass Plays 43.7% 43.1%
Sack Rate 4.2% 9.0%
Int Rate 2.8% 3.3%
Deep Pass Rate 20.2% 14.9%
Big Pass Yards 45.9% 37.7%
NYPP 6.4 5.7

Rush

Rush Plays 24.3 24.0
RB YPR 4.0 2.8
Stuff Rate 24.8% 24.5%
Succ Rush Plays 53.7% 46.1%
Big Rush Yards 38.2% 10.6%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.0

Game

All Snaps 62.3 65.3
Early Down Succ 48.6% 46.2%
Succ Rate 47.6% 44.3%
Big Yards Rate 44.8% 31.5%
Yards Per Play 5.4 4.7
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 28.4
Run Ratio 39.0% 36.3%
Starting Field Pos 30.8 29.9
Game Control 6.2 -6.2

Points 27.3 20.3

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NO	23 – 34 L	-6.1	46.2% / 40.6%	7.7% / 3.1%	5.6% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.9	50.0% / 44.1%	23.1% / 32.4%	3.3 / 2.4	65 / 66	49.0% / 46.9%	47.7% / 42.4%	39.0% / 35.8%	4.8 / 4.1	1.5% / 0.0%	40.0% / 51.5%	18.1 / 41.8
2	CAR	31 – 17 W	12.1	40.0% / 53.2%	0.0% / 10.6%	2.9% / 4.8%	6.2 / 7.2	59.1% / 58.3%	27.3% / 12.5%	5.5 / 3.6	57 / 71	47.8% / 55.2%	47.4% / 54.9%	53.1% / 24.6%	5.9 / 6.0	1.8% / 2.8%	38.6% / 33.8%	37.4 / 26.3
3	@DEN	28 – 10 W	12.6	45.0% / 35.6%	5.0% / 13.3%	0.0% / 5.1%	7.1 / 4.1	52.0% / 35.7%	24.0% / 28.6%	2.7 / 3.0	65 / 59	48.9% / 36.4%	47.7% / 35.6%	42.2% / 34.1%	5.4 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	38.5% / 23.7%	36.9 / 21.5

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PIT	16 – 26 L	-3.1	50.0% / 44.1%	6.8% / 5.9%	4.9% / 0.0%	6.0 / 6.1	25.0% / 36.7%	40.0% / 20.0%	1.5 / 4.7	64 / 64	38.3% / 36.2%	42.2% / 40.6%	31.6% / 35.8%	4.5 / 5.5	0.0% / 1.6%	31.3% / 46.9%	36.3 / 30.3
2	@CHI	13 – 17 L	-9.1	43.2% / 46.9%	9.1% / 12.5%	2.5% / 7.1%	5.0 / 5.3	50.0% / 40.6%	22.2% / 18.8%	4.2 / 4.2	62 / 64	50.0% / 38.3%	45.2% / 43.8%	32.5% / 30.9%	4.8 / 4.8	1.6% / 0.0%	29.0% / 50.0%	29.2 / 29.1
3	SF	9 – 36 L	-9.1	38.2% / 60.5%	5.9% / 5.3%	3.1% / 0.0%	4.9 / 8.6	40.0% / 42.9%	40.0% / 34.3%	4.4 / 2.7	49 / 73	37.8% / 50.8%	38.8% / 52.1%	50.2% / 30.0%	4.7 / 5.8	4.1% / 0.0%	30.6% / 47.9%	24.8 / 35.9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

New York Giants

Mon, Nov 2

5:15 PM Pacific

Game Analysis