Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Over (40) – NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) vs Tampa Bay

· Saints head coach Dennis Allen said quarterback Derek Carr has a sprained AC joint, but he’s expected to start. I took.

· Carr is going to contend with plenty of interior pressure as DT Vita Vea has 2 sacks (3rd) and the 350-pounder has a favorable matchup. Saints C Erik McCoy ranks 5th-worst in pass blocking efficiency and starting guard Caesar Ruiz is likely out with a concussion. There’s a chance that Vea will not play, which will help our over play.

· New Orleans WR Chris Olave is gaining 2.38 adjusted yards per route run (6th) but it looks like Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis will be back on Sunday to contend with Olave. However, Tampa Bay’s other starting cornerback Jamel Dean will be sidelined providing a window for wide receiver Michael Thomas, who has a 54% success rate (26th).

· Baker Mayfield has a 69% completion rate under pressure (2nd-highest) and it is unlikely to continue. Mayfield was known as one of the league’s worst quarterbacks under pressure coming into the season as he’d completed less than half his career passes against pressure prior to this year.

· Saints CB Marshon Lattimore leads the NFL with 5 combined interceptions and pass breakups. Lattimore is notorious for his battles with WR Mike Evans, who is averaging just 44.8 yards per game in his career versus Lattimore.

· The New Orleans defense has a 40%-man coverage rate (2nd) and Evans leads the NFL with a 57% target rate against man. The Buccaneers’ offense will likely come down to whether Evans can win his matchup across from Lattimore.

· The Saints’ other cornerbacks Isaac Yiadom and Alontae Taylor forced 12 tight window throws last Sunday and will lock down the rest of the field.

· Tampa Bay left tackle Tristan Wirfs has conceded only 2 pressures in three games and he will shut down edge defender Carl Granderson, who ranks 16th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· New Orleans edge rusher Cameron Jordan leads the NFL with a 3.2% batted pass rate, and he will take away all of Mayfield’s throws to the right flat.

· Our model favors the Saints by 2.8 with a predicted total of 44.1 points.

The Over is a Strong Opinion at 40.5 or less.