Game Analysis

Lean – NEW ORLEANS (+2.5) over Tampa Bay

Lean – Over (44)

· The Buccaneers cruised in last Sunday night’s win over the Cowboys, but this will be a much different matchup for Tampa Bay’s offense. Tom Brady has gained just 5.4 yppp against New Orleans since joining the Buccaneers and top WR Mike Evans is averaging less than 50 yards per game versus the Saints since Pro Bowl CB Marshon Lattimore entered the NFL in 2017.

· Injuries are starting to pile up for Tampa Bay’s offense. Interior offensive linemen Ryan Jensen and Aaron Stinnie went down in the preseason and left tackle Donovan Smith was ruled out last week with an elbow injury. Backup LT Josh Wells ranked 62nd out of 66 qualifying tackles in week 1 pass blocking efficiency. New Orleans edge defender Marcus Davenport ranked 9th in pass rushing efficiency last season and will line up across from Wells.

· The Saints had the league’s top rush defense last year by our metrics and I doubt Tampa Bay’s ground game will be able to take much of the offensive burden off Tom Brady.

· Brady averaged 2.19 seconds to throw, the quickest of any QB in the NFL last week. Brady will attempt to mitigate offensive line issues by getting the ball out fast again on Sunday.

· Buccaneers RT Tristan Wirfs led the NFL in pass blocking efficiency last season, and he will contain Pro Bowl DE Cameron Jordan.

· It looks like Bucs’ WR Chris Godwin will miss a few weeks with hamstring strain, but I don’t think this will be as much of a concern to Brady compared to the offensive line. Julio Jones looked healthy last week while hauling in five catches for 86 yards and he should be a solid Godwin replacement.

· The Saints started two new safeties in week 1 and the pair showed they can be just as formidable as Marcus Williams and Malcolm Jenkins were for them last year. Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu conceded only one reception on three targets for one yard in Atlanta.

· Jameis Winston now has NFL-caliber wide receivers in New Orleans and he took full advantage last week. Michael Thomas caught two touchdowns and Jarvis Landry was used as a deep threat for the first time in his career. Winston averaged 13.9 air yards when targeting Landry against the Falcons. 

· Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis conceded only 2 receptions for 25 yards on 9 targets as the nearest defender in Dallas and he will see snaps against Thomas on Sunday.

· Landry will likely line up across from Tampa Bay safety Antoine Winfield, who surrendered 55 slot receiving yards last week (4th-most in the NFL).

· Our model has the Buccaneers by 2.7 points, with a predicted total of 47.3 points, but the matchups and the situation favor the Saints.