Game Analysis

Lean – Tampa Bay (+6) over MINNESOTA

· Kirk Cousins went from averaging 0.05 EPA/play (18th) with a 6.1-yard average depth of target (33rd) before the TJ Hockenson trade last season to averaging 0.12 EPA/play (11th) and an 8.4 ADoT (12th) after bringing in the Pro Bowl tight end.

· With the addition of rookie WR Jordan Addison to play opposite Justin Jefferson, we have Minnesota’s receiving corps ranked inside the top 10 – near teams like the Bills and Chargers.

· The Vikings finished 2022 ranked 26th in pass-blocking efficiency. However, both LT Christian Darrisaw and RT Brian O’Neill ranked in the top 15 in PFF pass-blocking grade on true passing snaps.

· Minnesota’s interior offensive line was the issue, as 71% of pressure on Kirk Cousin last season came from up the middle. For reference, that was 7 percentage points above the Texans, who were 2nd worst. Interior blocking isn’t as sticky year to year as performance from tackles is and all three of the Vikings starters on the interior were drafted in the first two rounds and now have a year in the system to work on communication. I expect Minnesota’s offensive line to play at an above average level this season.

· New defensive coordinator Brian Flores has a challenge on his hands. The Vikings lost their best pass rusher in edge Za’Darius Smith, best pass rusher in interior Dalvin Tomlinson, both starting cornerbacks, and top LB Eric Kendricks.

· Before his time with the Steelers, Flores was head coach of the Dolphins. In his first season, they ranked dead last in points per game allowed (30.9). In his second season, they jumped all the way to fourth (21.1). I expect Minnesota’s defense to struggle early in the season in this new aggressive scheme.

· The Buccaneers were a slightly above-average team in market to end last season but after losing Tom Brady and bringing in Baker Mayfield, the market now has them among the three worst teams in the NFL based on the spreads for the 2023 season.

· The Bucs do have one of the best tackles in the NFL in Tristan Wirfs but there are massive question marks at the other four spots across this offensive line. Only three guards in the league surrendered more sacks than Matt Feiler last season. Second-round rookie Cody Mauch will be the other starting guard and he played FCS in college so it will likely take some adjusting to NFL athletes.

· Starting center Ryan Jensen went down before week 1 for the second-straight season so it’ll be backup Robert Hainsey getting the start. Luke Goedeke was in contention for worst interior offensive lineman to get more than 300 snaps in the NFL last year and it won’t get any easier for him bumping out to a more difficult position at right tackle.

· Mayfield will have two solid wide receivers to target. Mike Evans has over 1,000 yards during all nine of his years in the league and Chris Godwin has finished in the top 10 in yards per route run from the slot each of the last two seasons.

· Tampa Bay’s secondary is likely one guy short from being complete given that they have to roll Dee Delaney out there at nickelback. However, S Antoine Winfield, CB Jamel Dean, and CB Carlton Davis have all been above average throughout their careers and are all still 26 or younger. Newcomer Ryan Neal had the highest grade of any safety according to PFF last season.

· Buccaneers edge defender Shaquil Barrett only played half of last season, but he finished 4th among edge defenders with 75 pressures in 2021. DT Vita Vea, meanwhile, ranked 10th in pass-rushing efficiency among interior defenders in 2022.

· Our model favors the Vikings by 6.1 points with a predicted total of 46.6 points but we lean with the Buccaneers based on the favorable matchups.