Game Analysis
Lean – MIAMI (+2) over Tampa Bay
Miami has responded well to their head coach calling them the worst offense in the league after being shutout by the Ravens in week 8. The Dolphins are averaging 6.2 yppl the last two weeks and I expect their success to continue against a Buccaneers defense surrendering 5.9 yppl (26th). Tampa Bay is particularly futile defending the pass, 28th in my metrics, and the Dolphins have stepped up the air attack with a 70% pass rate the last two games. Getting DeVante Parker back from injury has helped the aerial attack and trading leading rusher Jay Ajayi may also have something to do with more passing. I expect Jay Cutler to play well on Sunday (or at least better than he has played this season).
I believe the market is still over-valuing the difference between Jamies Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick because Winston was clearly limited in much if his playing time this season. Fitzpatrick had a down game last week without Mike Evans in the lineup but he’s still averaging 6.0 yppp this season and Evans is probable on Sunday. Miami has the NFL’s 30th-ranked pass defense according to my ratings and I expect Fitzpatrick to play well against that porous secondary.
The line on this game is now fair at TB by 2 points and I’ll lean with Miami based on a 15-66-3 ATS letdown situation that applies to the Buccaneers and a 148-72-6 ATS situation that applies to Miami that plays on teams coming off a really bad loss.
Both these teams rank top-10 in pass rate this season and I expect the offenses to air-it-out with excellent matchups this week in a game that should be higher scoring than expected. I’ll take the Over in a 1-Star Best Bet at 41 points or less (Strong Opinion up to 42 points).
Note: This play was released as a 1-Star Best Bet Over 40 points earlier in the week but there is no longer any value with the total up to 44 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.7
37.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.4%
51.2%
-
Sack Rate
5.0%
4.1%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.6%
20.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
26.1%
36.8%
-
NYPP
6.5
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.0
29.7
-
RB YPR
3.3
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
22.6%
25.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.0%
37.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
32.4%
41.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
63.7
66.8
-
Early Down Succ
47.5%
47.0%
-
Succ Rate
45.0%
44.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
28.8%
38.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.0
28.2
-
Run Ratio
37.2%
44.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
28.1
-
Game Control
-3.7
3.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.2
33.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.6%
48.7%
-
Sack Rate
4.9%
5.3%
-
Int Rate
3.0%
1.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.5%
16.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
24.2%
37.6%
-
NYPP
5.0
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.0
27.8
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
35.3%
31.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.7%
37.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.3%
61.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
61.2
60.9
-
Early Down Succ
44.5%
46.3%
-
Succ Rate
41.2%
43.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
30.3%
44.2%
-
Yards Per Play
4.5
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
30.5
-
Run Ratio
37.3%
45.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.3
28.2
-
Game Control
-6.6
6.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 2 |
CHI |
29 – 7 W |
18.1 |
48.5% /
56.5% |
6.1% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
4.4% |
5.9 /
6.3 |
36.1% /
25.0% |
11.1% /
43.8% |
3.3 /
1.3 |
69 /
62 |
41.2% /
50.0% |
42.0% /
48.4% |
14.4% /
6.5% |
4.5 /
5.0 |
1.4% /
3.2% |
52.2% /
25.8% |
31.1 /
27.0 |
| 3 |
@MIN |
17 – 34 L |
-13.1 |
57.1% /
63.6% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
7.5% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
11.2 |
44.4% /
37.5% |
11.1% /
12.5% |
2.9 /
3.2 |
51 /
73 |
60.0% /
52.7% |
54.9% /
49.3% |
16.7% /
45.3% |
6.7 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
17.6% /
54.8% |
24.8 /
27.3 |
| 4 |
NYG |
25 – 23 W |
5.2 |
48.7% /
49.0% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
5.9 |
42.3% /
35.7% |
19.2% /
28.6% |
4.3 /
3.3 |
65 /
77 |
56.3% /
44.1% |
46.2% /
44.2% |
57.3% /
27.4% |
6.7 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
36.4% |
29.9 /
27.7 |
| 5 |
NE |
14 – 19 L |
-4.4 |
48.9% /
51.2% |
4.3% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
6.8 /
6.7 |
55.0% /
47.8% |
20.0% /
17.4% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
67 /
66 |
55.6% /
53.7% |
50.7% /
50.0% |
37.2% /
24.6% |
6.1 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
29.9% /
34.8% |
27.4 /
27.7 |
| 6 |
@ARI |
33 – 38 L |
-18.1 |
53.5% /
62.5% |
2.3% /
8.3% |
4.8% /
4.5% |
8.0 /
11.3 |
23.8% /
38.5% |
38.1% /
20.5% |
3.2 /
4.2 |
64 /
63 |
40.4% /
56.5% |
43.8% /
47.6% |
51.9% /
53.0% |
6.5 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
32.8% /
61.9% |
28.3 /
33.4 |
| 7 |
@BUF |
27 – 30 L |
-2.0 |
64.4% /
44.1% |
2.2% /
2.9% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
8.4 /
7.7 |
32.0% /
42.4% |
20.0% /
27.3% |
2.8 /
5.2 |
70 /
67 |
52.5% /
37.3% |
52.9% /
43.3% |
26.4% /
65.0% |
6.4 /
6.5 |
2.9% /
1.5% |
35.7% /
49.3% |
27.0 /
33.7 |
| 8 |
CAR |
3 – 17 L |
-7.2 |
36.6% /
37.5% |
7.3% /
0.0% |
5.3% /
3.1% |
4.7 /
4.8 |
45.5% /
45.5% |
31.8% /
24.2% |
3.9 /
3.1 |
63 /
65 |
46.0% /
43.2% |
39.7% /
41.5% |
19.4% /
30.5% |
4.4 /
3.9 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
50.8% |
23.2 /
30.6 |
| 9 |
@NO |
10 – 30 L |
-15.2 |
37.5% /
67.9% |
12.5% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
9.1 |
44.0% /
41.7% |
24.0% /
8.3% |
3.5 /
4.3 |
57 /
64 |
43.2% /
57.8% |
40.4% /
53.1% |
13.0% /
49.3% |
3.5 /
6.4 |
1.8% /
3.1% |
43.9% /
56.3% |
31.5 /
26.6 |
| 10 |
NYJ |
15 – 10 W |
3.4 |
40.0% /
28.9% |
2.9% /
13.3% |
2.9% /
2.6% |
5.2 /
4.9 |
28.1% /
21.1% |
28.1% /
42.1% |
2.8 /
2.9 |
67 /
64 |
32.7% /
27.7% |
34.3% /
26.6% |
23.2% /
46.2% |
4.1 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
47.8% /
29.7% |
36.0 /
19.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 2 |
@LAC |
19 – 17 W |
-2.0 |
44.4% /
62.5% |
5.6% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
8.1 |
36.4% /
28.6% |
30.3% /
50.0% |
3.4 /
3.1 |
69 /
54 |
43.4% /
58.7% |
40.6% /
53.7% |
38.9% /
28.6% |
4.9 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.8% /
25.9% |
26.4 /
24.9 |
| 3 |
@NYJ |
6 – 20 L |
-9.8 |
41.7% /
52.0% |
6.3% /
8.0% |
4.4% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
9.3 |
46.7% /
37.1% |
46.7% /
34.3% |
2.0 /
3.0 |
63 /
60 |
54.2% /
48.9% |
42.9% /
43.3% |
11.6% /
40.1% |
3.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
23.8% /
58.3% |
23.7 /
31.4 |
| 4 |
NO |
0 – 20 L |
-5.5 |
37.5% /
48.8% |
12.5% /
2.4% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
6.4 |
60.0% /
46.4% |
40.0% /
14.3% |
3.9 /
3.1 |
47 /
69 |
52.6% /
46.3% |
44.7% /
47.8% |
31.7% /
46.1% |
4.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
40.6% |
27.0 /
28.8 |
| 5 |
TEN |
16 – 10 W |
4.2 |
25.0% /
36.8% |
3.6% /
15.8% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
2.8 /
3.1 |
43.8% /
30.0% |
28.1% /
45.0% |
3.2 /
3.5 |
60 /
58 |
37.2% /
40.0% |
35.0% /
34.5% |
6.1% /
19.1% |
3.0 /
3.2 |
1.7% /
3.4% |
53.3% /
34.5% |
27.0 /
25.1 |
| 6 |
@ATL |
20 – 17 W |
-7.7 |
45.5% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
3.0% /
2.9% |
4.6 /
6.6 |
46.9% /
47.4% |
25.0% /
42.1% |
4.3 /
5.3 |
65 /
55 |
47.9% /
48.8% |
46.2% /
49.1% |
23.8% /
40.1% |
4.5 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.2% /
34.5% |
30.2 /
20.7 |
| 7 |
NYJ |
31 – 28 W |
-5.2 |
52.5% /
36.7% |
7.5% /
10.0% |
5.4% /
3.7% |
7.6 /
6.0 |
24.0% /
34.8% |
44.0% /
30.4% |
2.1 /
4.0 |
65 /
53 |
42.3% /
37.5% |
41.5% /
35.8% |
53.8% /
61.9% |
5.5 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
38.5% /
43.4% |
31.2 /
29.3 |
| 8 |
@BAL |
0 – 40 L |
-17.5 |
29.8% /
36.4% |
6.4% /
0.0% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
5.5 |
26.3% /
34.9% |
42.1% /
20.9% |
2.4 /
4.1 |
66 /
65 |
30.6% /
42.6% |
28.8% /
35.4% |
41.3% /
45.0% |
3.0 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
66.2% |
22.2 /
35.3 |
| 9 |
OAK |
24 – 27 L |
-3.2 |
58.1% /
54.8% |
2.3% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
7.2 /
9.5 |
27.8% /
23.3% |
38.9% /
23.3% |
4.8 /
2.9 |
61 /
61 |
52.1% /
39.0% |
49.2% /
39.3% |
26.8% /
59.7% |
6.5 /
6.3 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
29.5% /
49.2% |
27.1 /
28.2 |
| 10 |
@CAR |
21 – 45 L |
-12.9 |
48.6% /
60.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
7.3 |
27.8% /
52.6% |
22.2% /
18.4% |
5.6 /
7.8 |
55 /
73 |
40.0% /
54.5% |
41.8% /
56.2% |
38.9% /
57.3% |
5.7 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.7% /
52.1% |
21.9 /
30.1 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@ 
Miami Dolphins