Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

Los Angeles Rams

Sun, Sep 29
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 267
Odds: Los Angeles Rams -9, Total: 49.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – LA RAMS (-9) over Tampa Bay

Jameis Winston’s 13.0 air yards per attempt last week were the second-most by any quarterback in a game this season and he now leads the league with 11.2% of his targets going to the endzone. Mike Evans exploded against the Giants racking up 190 yards and 3 touchdowns, but I expect this air raid Buccaneers’ offense to be slowed on Sunday. Rams cornerbacks Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, and Nickell Robey-Coleman have been dominant this season, with all three ranking in the top 10 in yards allowed per cover snap. Aaron Donald averaged a pressure once every 5 pass rush snaps last week against the Brown but could be limited by Tampa Bay’s solid interior offensive line. However, Dante Fowler, ranked 6th among edge defenders in pass rushing efficiency, should wreak havoc against right tackle Donovan Smith, who has surrendered 13 pressures (4th-most). The Buccaneers will likely focus on their 10th-rated ground game against the Rams 27th-ranked rush defense.

I think Jared Goff will have his best game of the season playing at home against Tampa Bay’s weak secondary. Andrew Whitworth has yet to concede a sack and should limit Shaquil Barrett, who is ranked 5th among edge defenders in pass rush efficiency. Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp all gained more than 2 yards per route run in 2018 and they should face little resistance from the Buccaneers cornerbacks.

The matchup points in opposite directions for these two quarterbacks and the Rams should win easily. Our model favors Los Angeles by 10.5 points with a predicted total of 50.3 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Buccaneers
  • Rams
TB
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.0 41.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 39.7% 40.9%
  • Sack Rate 9.4% 7.1%
  • Int Rate 3.7% 1.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 28.8% 18.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 49.8% 51.7%
  • NYPP 6.6 6.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 29.7 23.3
  • RB YPR 4.3 2.8
  • Stuff Rate 22.5% 39.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 47.5% 30.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.8% 40.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.1 3.0




Game

  • All Snaps 65.7 64.3
  • Early Down Succ 47.0% 38.5%
  • Succ Rate 42.7% 37.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 48.9% 50.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.4 5.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 2.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.8 26.1
  • Run Ratio 45.5% 37.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.6 27.8
  • Game Control 0.8 -0.8
 
  • Points 22.7 25.7
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