Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

GREEN BAY (-3.5/-3) vs Tampa Bay

Lean – Green Bay at -3 at -120 odds or better

The Buccaneers had a 42% blitz rate this year (3rd) and Aaron Rodgers saw 21 blitzes (most this season) when these teams squared off in week 6. Green Bay’s offense averaged just 1.8 yards per play when Tampa Bay blitzed in that game and I expect defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to be aggressive again on Sunday. However, I doubt that strategy will work in this game. Packers’ star WR Davante Adams has talked about how they weren’t prepared for the pressure that they faced in that game and it changed how they approached in-game adjustments for the rest of the season. Aaron Rodgers historically has not been bothered by the blitz and it should be pointed out that slot receiver Allen Lazard was did not play in that first game against Tampa Bay.

Lazard had core surgery that caused him to miss six games this year and the Packers’ aerial attack is better with Lazard healthy, as he is averaging 1.91 yards per route run. Lazard should be open often lining up across from CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, who surrendered 1.73 yards per cover snap in the slot, which ranked last among 25 qualifying nickelbacks. Bucs’ CB Carlton Davis shut down Michael Thomas in shadow coverage last week, holding the wide receiver to zero catches from three targets. Davis shadowed Davante Adams in week 6 and conceded only 33 receiving yards. Tampa’s other elite CB Jamel Dean allowed just 0.68 yards per cover snap during the regular season (4th) and will limit Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The Buccaneers allowed the most receptions to opposing running backs (101) but held them to a league-low 4.2 yards per target and Aaron Jones likely won’t be the best check down option for Rodgers with LB Lavonte David in coverage. Instead, I could see TE Robert Tonyan and Lazard featured in intermediate routes on bootlegs with Adams and Valdes-Scantling likely to be covered more often than usual.

Interior defender Vita Vea has been activated could be on the field this week for the first time since week 5. Vea ranked 4th in pass rushing efficiency before suffering an ankle fracture but his backup William Gholston finished 7th in pass rushing efficiency Packers’ LG Elgton Jenkins has conceded a pressure rate of only 2.6% so the combination Vea and Gholston likely won’t be much of a factor. Pro Bowl LT David Bakhtiari is out with a torn ACL leaving Billy Turner and Rick Wagner to be the starting tackles again. The pair allowed only one pressure combined last week but it will be a different challenge on Sunday across from edge defender Shaquil Barrett (4th in pass rushing efficiency) and DE Jason Pierre-Paul (9.5 sacks).

Tom Brady was kept clean in the pocket on 76% of his dropbacks this season (4th) but I do not expect that to be the case this week. Backup RG RG Aaron Stinnie surrendered a 9% pressure rate last Sunday filling in for Alex Cappa and played more snaps than he had in his entire three-year career combined coming into the game. Interior defender Kenny Clark had two-straight top 10 finishes in pass rushing efficiency prior to this season. Clark had a down year by his standards but sacked Jared Goff twice last week and certainly has the talent to exploit Stinnie when lined up across from the undrafted backup guard. Rashan Gary is clearly Green Bay’s best edge rusher and they played him on more than 60% of snaps for just the fourth time all season last Sunday. Gary had a 32% pressure rate versus the Rams. LT Donovan Smith ranked 42nd out of 55 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency and will struggle to stay in front of Gary and edge defender Za’Darius Smith (58 pressures). Cornerback Jaire Alexander, who conceded only 0.64 yards per cover snap this season (3rd), shadowed Mike Evans in the first game on 76% of his routes and held the Bucs’ star receiver to zero receptions. The Packers haven’t used Alexander in shadow coverage since October but Antonio Brown is out so there is a decent chance the Pro Bowl CB is assigned to Evans again in this matchup. Nickelback Chandon Sullivan is allowing just one reception every 10.8 cover snaps in the slot (2nd) and he will make it difficult for Chris Godwin. Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate will likely be limited as the Packers are allowing only 7.0 yards per target to opposing tight ends.

Our model favors the Packers by 4.7 points, with a predicted total of 53.0 points, but Tampa Bay applies to a 44-101-2 ATS third consecutive road game situation and teams playing their third consecutive playoff game on the road are just 4-12 straight up and 5-11 ATS (all Championship game round, obviously), including 2-8 ATS visiting a team that won 12 or more regular season games (the Packers were 13-3).

Team Stats
Game Log

Buccaneers
Packers

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.3 41.4
Succ Pass Plays 49.0% 46.0%
Sack Rate 3.4% 6.8%
Int Rate 1.7% 2.8%
Deep Pass Rate 22.3% 15.2%
Big Pass Yards 40.4% 33.8%
NYPP 7.1 5.9

Rush

Rush Plays 24.1 22.6
RB YPR 4.1 3.2
Stuff Rate 16.7% 23.7%
Succ Rush Plays 47.9% 45.5%
Big Rush Yards 35.4% 35.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 3.6

Game

All Snaps 64.3 64.0
Early Down Succ 51.7% 47.5%
Succ Rate 48.9% 45.9%
Big Yards Rate 40.4% 35.7%
Yards Per Play 6.0 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.2 28.9
Run Ratio 37.0% 35.1%
Starting Field Pos 31.6 27.8
Game Control 2.3 -2.3

Points 30.7 22.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NO	23 – 34 L	-6.1	46.2% / 40.6%	7.7% / 3.1%	5.6% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.9	50.0% / 44.1%	23.1% / 32.4%	3.3 / 2.4	65 / 66	49.0% / 46.9%	47.7% / 42.4%	39.0% / 35.8%	4.8 / 4.1	1.5% / 0.0%	40.0% / 51.5%	18.1 / 41.8
2	CAR	31 – 17 W	12.1	40.0% / 53.2%	0.0% / 10.6%	2.9% / 4.8%	6.2 / 7.2	59.1% / 58.3%	27.3% / 12.5%	5.5 / 3.6	57 / 71	47.8% / 55.2%	47.4% / 54.9%	53.1% / 24.6%	5.9 / 6.0	1.8% / 2.8%	38.6% / 33.8%	37.4 / 26.3
3	@DEN	28 – 10 W	12.6	45.0% / 35.6%	5.0% / 13.3%	0.0% / 5.1%	7.1 / 4.1	52.0% / 35.7%	24.0% / 28.6%	2.7 / 3.0	65 / 59	48.9% / 36.4%	47.7% / 35.6%	42.2% / 34.1%	5.4 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	38.5% / 23.7%	36.9 / 21.5
4	LAC	38 – 31 W	-4.0	54.3% / 40.7%	0.0% / 7.4%	2.2% / 4.0%	8.0 / 10.3	44.4% / 26.1%	14.8% / 34.8%	4.3 / 2.0	73 / 50	53.3% / 31.6%	50.7% / 34.0%	45.5% / 50.6%	6.6 / 6.5	0.0% / 2.0%	37.0% / 46.0%	35.3 / 22.1
5	@CHI	19 – 20 L	3.6	29.5% / 46.7%	6.8% / 6.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	5.3 / 4.6	55.0% / 28.6%	15.0% / 7.1%	5.3 / 2.5	64 / 59	40.4% / 45.8%	37.5% / 42.4%	40.1% / 20.2%	5.3 / 4.1	1.6% / 0.0%	31.3% / 23.7%	27.3 / 35.0
6	GB	38 – 10 W	13.0	46.4% / 35.0%	0.0% / 12.5%	0.0% / 5.7%	5.9 / 2.7	45.7% / 38.1%	8.6% / 42.9%	4.5 / 4.5	63 / 61	49.0% / 34.1%	46.0% / 36.1%	42.3% / 32.3%	5.1 / 3.3	0.0% / 0.0%	55.6% / 34.4%	32.9 / 23.6
7	@LV	45 – 20 W	5.4	57.8% / 51.3%	0.0% / 7.7%	0.0% / 2.8%	8.2 / 6.9	44.0% / 45.8%	36.0% / 25.0%	3.4 / 3.2	70 / 63	52.7% / 52.1%	52.9% / 49.2%	43.6% / 46.7%	6.5 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	35.7% / 38.1%	33.0 / 24.7
8	@NYG	25 – 23 W	-1.4	59.5% / 46.7%	4.8% / 6.7%	0.0% / 4.8%	6.3 / 5.7	33.3% / 54.2%	12.5% / 12.5%	3.4 / 4.2	66 / 69	53.8% / 50.9%	50.0% / 49.3%	22.7% / 26.1%	5.2 / 5.2	1.5% / 0.0%	36.4% / 34.8%	29.9 / 32.8
9	NO	3 – 38 L	-23.8	34.1% / 63.9%	7.3% / 2.8%	7.9% / 0.0%	4.5 / 7.8	20.0% / 40.5%	40.0% / 18.9%	1.6 / 3.7	46 / 73	42.4% / 51.9%	32.6% / 52.1%	32.0% / 47.6%	4.2 / 5.8	0.0% / 2.7%	10.9% / 50.7%	27.0 / 36.9
10	@CAR	46 – 23 W	3.1	55.0% / 35.5%	2.5% / 9.7%	0.0% / 3.6%	8.4 / 3.9	48.6% / 62.5%	18.9% / 12.5%	5.7 / 4.1	77 / 47	50.0% / 54.3%	51.9% / 44.7%	51.5% / 38.5%	7.1 / 4.0	1.3% / 0.0%	48.1% / 34.0%	36.0 / 34.6
11	LA	24 – 27 L	-2.4	42.9% / 60.8%	2.0% / 0.0%	4.2% / 3.9%	4.3 / 7.4	44.4% / 20.0%	22.2% / 50.0%	2.3 / 1.9	67 / 71	42.3% / 49.1%	43.3% / 49.3%	0.0% / 34.9%	3.7 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	26.9% / 28.2%	32.4 / 29.3
12	KC	24 – 27 L	-11.5	54.8% / 53.8%	2.4% / 3.8%	4.9% / 0.0%	8.1 / 8.8	46.2% / 55.0%	0.0% / 20.0%	5.8 / 4.4	55 / 72	56.8% / 55.9%	52.7% / 54.2%	56.1% / 50.5%	7.6 / 7.5	0.0% / 1.4%	23.6% / 27.8%	24.3 / 22.7
14	MIN	26 – 14 W	5.8	52.2% / 46.5%	0.0% / 14.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.5 / 4.0	46.2% / 69.7%	3.8% / 9.1%	4.1 / 4.9	49 / 76	54.3% / 60.7%	49.0% / 56.6%	49.8% / 25.7%	6.2 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.3%	53.1% / 43.4%	30.8 / 24.6
15	@ATL	31 – 27 W	-7.4	50.0% / 46.2%	6.3% / 5.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.6 / 6.4	44.4% / 46.2%	11.1% / 30.8%	2.8 / 2.8	66 / 65	51.9% / 47.9%	48.5% / 46.2%	39.7% / 41.2%	6.3 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	27.3% / 20.0%	29.5 / 22.2
16	@DET	47 – 7 W	28.1	63.6% / 31.4%	4.5% / 11.4%	0.0% / 3.2%	10.8 / 3.2	50.0% / 53.3%	15.4% / 33.3%	4.3 / 4.9	70 / 50	63.2% / 46.2%	58.6% / 38.0%	57.1% / 33.9%	8.4 / 3.7	0.0% / 2.0%	37.1% / 30.0%	28.2 / 23.8
17	ATL	44 – 27 W	8.9	57.1% / 53.3%	2.4% / 2.2%	2.4% / 0.0%	9.3 / 5.7	63.6% / 46.2%	9.1% / 26.9%	4.3 / 4.9	64 / 71	64.0% / 50.0%	59.4% / 50.7%	48.7% / 25.7%	7.6 / 5.4	0.0% / 2.8%	34.4% / 36.6%	39.6 / 25.1
18	@WAS	31 – 23 W	6.7	46.5% / 43.5%	7.0% / 4.3%	0.0% / 2.3%	8.5 / 6.3	55.2% / 39.1%	6.9% / 21.7%	4.9 / 3.7	72 / 69	53.6% / 40.7%	50.0% / 42.0%	47.1% / 41.6%	7.0 / 5.4	1.4% / 0.0%	40.3% / 33.3%	29.5 / 25.8
19	@NO	30 – 20 W	-1.1	47.1% / 42.9%	2.9% / 0.0%	0.0% / 8.6%	5.6 / 5.4	60.0% / 56.0%	11.4% / 8.0%	3.6 / 4.2	69 / 60	57.1% / 44.9%	53.6% / 48.3%	16.1% / 32.0%	4.6 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.7%	50.7% / 41.7%	40.8 / 28.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIN	43 – 34 W	6.6	56.8% / 59.3%	0.0% / 7.4%	0.0% / 4.0%	8.3 / 9.2	65.6% / 72.7%	6.3% / 9.1%	4.9 / 6.1	76 / 49	63.9% / 69.0%	60.5% / 65.3%	48.5% / 51.8%	6.9 / 7.8	0.0% / 0.0%	42.1% / 44.9%	33.6 / 22.8
2	DET	42 – 21 W	5.7	54.8% / 45.9%	3.2% / 10.8%	0.0% / 3.0%	7.4 / 5.9	57.1% / 61.9%	8.6% / 14.3%	7.4 / 4.2	66 / 58	58.8% / 53.3%	56.1% / 51.7%	58.2% / 37.1%	7.4 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	53.0% / 36.2%	28.0 / 20.0
3	@NO	37 – 30 W	1.6	54.5% / 50.0%	3.0% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 7.2	50.0% / 50.0%	26.9% / 15.0%	3.8 / 6.1	59 / 58	55.6% / 51.1%	52.5% / 50.0%	50.9% / 33.2%	6.3 / 6.8	0.0% / 1.7%	44.1% / 34.5%	33.9 / 28.9
4	ATL	30 – 16 W	10.5	61.8% / 53.5%	2.9% / 9.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.3 / 5.8	34.6% / 48.0%	34.6% / 24.0%	3.4 / 3.1	60 / 68	50.0% / 57.7%	50.0% / 51.5%	46.2% / 10.4%	6.7 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 36.8%	32.6 / 23.4
6	@TB	10 – 38 L	-13.0	35.0% / 46.4%	12.5% / 0.0%	5.7% / 0.0%	2.7 / 5.9	38.1% / 45.7%	42.9% / 8.6%	4.5 / 4.5	61 / 63	34.1% / 49.0%	36.1% / 46.0%	32.3% / 42.3%	3.3 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	34.4% / 55.6%	23.6 / 32.9
7	@HOU	35 – 20 W	14.2	58.8% / 59.5%	0.0% / 7.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.3 / 6.8	59.3% / 36.4%	22.2% / 27.3%	3.6 / 3.6	61 / 64	61.7% / 55.1%	59.0% / 51.6%	40.4% / 29.9%	6.2 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.6%	44.3% / 34.4%	26.1 / 30.8
8	MIN	22 – 28 L	-3.6	52.4% / 60.0%	2.4% / 6.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.9 / 10.1	58.3% / 55.9%	8.3% / 20.6%	4.5 / 5.1	66 / 49	57.1% / 57.5%	54.5% / 57.1%	27.0% / 42.3%	6.1 / 6.6	1.5% / 0.0%	36.4% / 69.4%	27.8 / 24.6
9	@SF	34 – 17 W	15.7	53.1% / 41.7%	3.1% / 2.8%	0.0% / 2.9%	9.2 / 7.8	41.9% / 52.9%	19.4% / 23.5%	3.6 / 3.2	63 / 53	46.9% / 50.0%	47.6% / 45.3%	53.6% / 52.8%	6.4 / 6.4	0.0% / 1.9%	49.2% / 32.1%	27.5 / 27.3
10	JAC	24 – 20 W	0.5	51.4% / 39.5%	2.9% / 7.9%	2.9% / 2.9%	9.0 / 4.0	44.0% / 47.8%	24.0% / 8.7%	3.2 / 4.7	60 / 61	54.5% / 46.8%	48.3% / 42.6%	49.6% / 23.8%	6.6 / 4.3	1.7% / 0.0%	41.7% / 37.7%	24.7 / 34.1
11	@IND	31 – 34 L	5.0	53.8% / 51.4%	2.6% / 2.7%	2.6% / 2.8%	7.7 / 7.6	72.2% / 45.9%	16.7% / 32.4%	3.7 / 3.8	57 / 74	68.2% / 48.2%	59.6% / 48.6%	44.4% / 37.9%	6.4 / 5.7	5.3% / 1.4%	31.6% / 50.0%	28.6 / 41.6
12	CHI	41 – 25 W	15.1	62.1% / 49.0%	0.0% / 6.1%	0.0% / 4.3%	7.3 / 4.7	51.3% / 56.3%	12.8% / 18.8%	4.7 / 7.6	68 / 65	55.8% / 51.9%	55.9% / 50.8%	39.2% / 27.9%	5.8 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.5%	57.4% / 24.6%	31.3 / 24.4
13	PHI	30 – 16 W	7.3	52.8% / 29.4%	5.6% / 20.6%	0.0% / 3.7%	8.0 / 4.7	40.0% / 52.0%	12.0% / 28.0%	6.0 / 4.7	61 / 59	50.0% / 40.0%	47.5% / 39.0%	57.9% / 66.2%	7.2 / 4.7	0.0% / 0.0%	41.0% / 42.4%	19.4 / 26.8
14	@DET	31 – 24 W	4.7	63.6% / 45.5%	0.0% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.8 / 5.5	61.3% / 66.7%	9.7% / 6.7%	3.9 / 3.4	64 / 59	62.7% / 52.1%	62.5% / 50.8%	28.5% / 26.6%	6.4 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	48.4% / 25.4%	28.1 / 27.5
15	CAR	24 – 16 W	10.6	38.2% / 36.8%	14.7% / 7.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	2.8 / 6.6	66.7% / 55.6%	3.7% / 11.1%	7.2 / 4.3	61 / 65	54.2% / 47.1%	50.8% / 44.6%	41.2% / 39.6%	4.8 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.5%	44.3% / 41.5%	31.1 / 25.7
16	TEN	40 – 14 W	13.6	73.1% / 39.3%	3.8% / 7.1%	4.0% / 7.7%	8.2 / 3.7	54.1% / 44.4%	18.9% / 7.4%	6.3 / 5.8	63 / 55	66.7% / 39.5%	61.9% / 41.8%	54.0% / 54.2%	7.1 / 4.7	0.0% / 0.0%	58.7% / 49.1%	31.8 / 29.8
17	@CHI	35 – 16 W	4.0	72.0% / 53.5%	4.0% / 2.3%	0.0% / 2.4%	9.5 / 5.8	52.6% / 58.1%	15.8% / 16.1%	4.2 / 3.5	44 / 74	64.9% / 56.6%	63.6% / 55.4%	30.4% / 25.0%	7.2 / 4.8	2.3% / 1.4%	43.2% / 41.9%	38.7 / 31.0
19	LA	32 – 18 W	7.7	61.1% / 54.8%	0.0% / 12.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 4.8	63.9% / 68.4%	8.3% / 5.3%	5.2 / 5.1	72 / 50	63.8% / 68.3%	62.5% / 60.0%	47.7% / 29.5%	6.7 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 38.0%	30.3 / 23.3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

Green Bay Packers

Sun, Jan 24

12:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis