Game Analysis

Note: Detroit was released as a Best Bet to subscribers early in the week when the line was -6.5. The line has gone up and now the Lions are just a 1-Star play up to -8.

2-Star Best Bet – **DETROIT (-6.5) over Tampa Bay

• The Lions closed -6 (-115) at Circa hosting the Buccaneers in the playoffs last season and we’re getting nearly the exact same price despite Tampa Bay’s defense being significantly worse than it was in January while Detroit’s defense improved in free agency and the draft.
• Edge rusher Shaquil Barrett led the Buccaneers with 49 pressures last year, but they did not re-sign him. Tampa Bay’s defense also lost starting LB Devin White this offseason as well as starting cornerback Carlton Davis, who is now on the Lions.
• To make matters worse, the Buccaneers lost All-Pro S Antoine Winfield in week 1 as well as starting CB Zyon McCollum and his next two backups in Josh Hayes and Bryce Hall.
• All told, Tampa Bay’s defense does not have 5 starters from their last game against the Lions to go along with cluster affects in the secondary. This adds up to 2.6 points according to our metrics.
• In addition to signing Davis this offseason, Detroit signed interior defender DJ Reader and used its top two draft picks on cornerbacks. Reader did not suit up in week 1 but should be in uniform this Sunday. Reader graded 6th in run defense by PFF for the Bengals last year to go along with his 34 pressures.
• Tampa Bay WR Chris Godwin averaged 4.00 yards per route run in the slot last week (7th) but he will be limited by CB Amik Robertson, who did not concede a reception on 2 targets into his coverage during his 18 snaps at nickelback in week 1.
• The Buccaneers have one of the league’s best run defenses, allowing -0.17 EPA/rush last season (5th), but Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson knows this and will increase his pass play rate like he did in last year’s playoffs. Detroit’s pass play rate was 63.4% in the divisional round versus Tampa Bay, compared to 56.6% in the regular season.
• Lions TE Sam LaPorta averaged 1.76 yards per route run in 2023 (5th) as a rookie. LaPorta has a favorable matchup this week versus a Buccaneers defense that surrendered 0.03 EPA/target to tight ends last year (26th) and won’t have Winfield.
• Jared Goff will have time in the pocket to find LaPorta downfield as Tampa Bay’s best pass rusher, interior defender Vita Vea, will be contained by Detroit C Frank Ragnow, who ranked 6th in pass blocking efficiency last season.
• Our model favors the Lions by 12.3 points, with a predicted total of 52.6 points.

Detroit is a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 -115 or better and 1-Star up to -8.