Game Analysis
Lean – DETROIT (+3.5) over Tampa Bay
Jameis Winston’s 10.6-yards average depth of target trails only injured Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford and throwing the ball down the field leads to a lot of variance, both good and bad. Winston is in the top 3 in passing yards (4,185), touchdowns (26), interceptions (25), sacks (43), and fumbles (12). Adding to the roller coaster this week, Winston is dealing with a thumb injury and it is unknown how it will affect his grip. Mike Evans was gaining 2.30 yards per route run (7th) but the Pro Bowl wide receiver will miss the rest of the season and our metrics have him valued at a point. The Lions are allowing 8.5 yards per target to opposing tight ends (28th) and it will be an excellent opportunity for OJ Howard to step up in Evans’ absence near the end of a disappointing 2019 campaign. Chris Godwin is averaging 2.14 yards per route run in the slot (2nd) and has a favorable matchup across from Justin Coleman, who is surrendering 1.61 yards per slot cover snap (3rd-worst). Interior defender Mike Daniels had 6 run stops and 3 hurries last week in his first game playing more than 50% of snaps all season (due to injury) and he will look to keep the momentum going if the Buccaneers are once again without starting right guard Alex Cappa.
Detroit’s ground game will be no help for David Blough against Tampa Bay’s 7th-rated rush defense and the undrafted rookie quarterback will rely on his two remaining receiving threats with wide receiver Marvin Jones joining tight end TJ Hockenson on the injured reserve list. Kenny Golladay leads the NFL with 31 deep ball targets and has 4 the last two weeks with Blough under center. Sean Murphy-Bunting has done a solid job taking over at Nickelback for the Bucs, conceding less than 1 yards per cover snap in the slot, and the rookie will challenge Danny Amendola on the inside. Vita Vea ranks 12th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders but he will be limited by right guard Joe Dahl, whose 96% pass block win rate ranks 7th.
This could be the last week of David Blough before Matthew Stafford returns. Our model favors the Buccaneers by just 2.1 points, with a predicted total of 47.7 points, and the situation strongly favors the Lions. Tampa Bay applies to a 76-146-5 last road game situation and a 64-131-8 ATS road favorite letdown situation that is based on last week’s close win.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.8
44.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.9%
43.7%
-
Sack Rate
7.5%
5.8%
-
Int Rate
4.1%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.8%
18.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.3%
45.4%
-
NYPP
7.0
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.0
22.2
-
RB YPR
3.3
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
24.5%
33.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.8%
38.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.6%
44.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
68.8
66.2
-
Early Down Succ
45.8%
43.5%
-
Succ Rate
44.4%
41.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.0%
45.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.4
26.5
-
Run Ratio
38.0%
34.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.6
30.7
-
Game Control
0.6
-0.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.2
38.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.6%
48.5%
-
Sack Rate
7.0%
5.1%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
1.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
24.2%
23.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
48.2%
46.1%
-
NYPP
6.8
7.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.5
27.9
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
24.1%
15.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.1%
48.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
31.5%
30.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
65.7
66.8
-
Early Down Succ
49.0%
50.4%
-
Succ Rate
47.1%
48.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.3%
41.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
27.8
-
Run Ratio
40.4%
42.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
25.0
-
Game Control
0.4
-0.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SF |
17 – 31 L |
-4.2 |
33.3% /
42.9% |
7.7% /
3.6% |
8.3% /
3.7% |
4.5 /
5.6 |
53.8% /
34.4% |
23.1% /
34.4% |
4.7 /
3.1 |
65 /
60 |
43.1% /
40.0% |
41.5% /
38.3% |
27.1% /
48.0% |
4.5 /
4.3 |
1.5% /
1.7% |
40.0% /
53.3% |
28.6 /
29.4 |
| 2 |
@CAR |
20 – 14 W |
1.4 |
39.3% /
40.7% |
10.7% /
5.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
5.8 |
35.5% /
26.3% |
25.8% /
57.9% |
3.2 /
2.1 |
59 /
73 |
43.5% /
42.9% |
37.3% /
37.0% |
63.0% /
43.2% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
52.5% /
26.0% |
26.5 /
27.6 |
| 3 |
NYG |
31 – 32 L |
5.4 |
46.3% /
39.0% |
9.8% /
12.2% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
7.6 |
53.1% /
31.6% |
18.8% /
26.3% |
4.5 /
3.8 |
73 /
60 |
54.4% /
32.6% |
49.3% /
36.7% |
56.5% /
60.9% |
6.8 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
3.3% |
43.8% /
31.7% |
30.8 /
26.3 |
| 4 |
@LA |
55 – 40 W |
10.8 |
55.8% /
52.9% |
4.7% /
2.9% |
2.4% /
4.4% |
8.7 /
7.0 |
40.0% /
36.4% |
33.3% /
36.4% |
2.9 /
2.5 |
73 /
81 |
47.5% /
53.6% |
49.3% /
50.6% |
28.2% /
33.8% |
6.4 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
41.1% /
13.6% |
33.4 /
25.3 |
| 5 |
@NO |
24 – 31 L |
-6.3 |
39.4% /
55.6% |
18.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
4.8 /
9.6 |
50.0% /
29.0% |
13.6% /
19.4% |
4.3 /
3.6 |
55 /
67 |
46.5% /
40.8% |
43.6% /
43.3% |
43.7% /
42.5% |
4.6 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
46.3% |
30.4 /
27.0 |
| 6 |
CAR |
26 – 37 L |
-11.3 |
42.6% /
44.1% |
11.5% /
5.9% |
9.3% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
6.1 |
42.9% /
27.6% |
7.1% /
37.9% |
3.0 /
2.0 |
75 /
63 |
44.8% /
41.3% |
42.7% /
36.5% |
38.3% /
45.5% |
5.4 /
4.3 |
2.7% /
1.6% |
18.7% /
46.0% |
26.6 /
40.6 |
| 8 |
@TEN |
23 – 27 L |
-2.0 |
45.7% /
47.2% |
6.5% /
8.3% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
4.8 |
33.3% /
23.8% |
16.7% /
57.1% |
3.5 /
3.4 |
76 /
57 |
39.7% /
41.5% |
40.8% /
38.6% |
35.5% /
55.3% |
5.1 /
4.3 |
2.6% /
1.8% |
39.5% /
36.8% |
27.5 /
35.4 |
| 9 |
@SEA |
34 – 40 L |
3.4 |
47.8% /
60.9% |
4.3% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
7.5 |
53.8% /
54.5% |
23.1% /
18.2% |
3.8 /
6.6 |
72 /
68 |
50.9% /
63.3% |
50.0% /
58.8% |
25.4% /
45.5% |
5.8 /
7.2 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
36.1% /
32.4% |
31.3 /
31.0 |
| 10 |
ARI |
30 – 27 W |
1.0 |
40.4% /
42.6% |
7.7% /
4.3% |
4.2% /
2.2% |
6.5 /
7.3 |
34.6% /
38.9% |
30.8% /
38.9% |
4.5 /
4.2 |
78 /
65 |
36.5% /
47.1% |
38.5% /
41.5% |
43.3% /
63.8% |
5.9 /
6.4 |
1.3% /
1.5% |
33.3% /
27.7% |
23.8 /
28.4 |
| 11 |
NO |
17 – 34 L |
-10.1 |
43.4% /
55.6% |
3.8% /
2.8% |
7.8% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
6.1 |
50.0% /
67.9% |
50.0% /
7.1% |
4.5 /
3.9 |
61 /
64 |
46.8% /
64.6% |
44.3% /
60.9% |
50.9% /
33.2% |
5.5 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
13.1% /
43.8% |
23.5 /
33.2 |
| 12 |
@ATL |
35 – 22 W |
7.4 |
57.1% /
32.8% |
0.0% /
9.8% |
7.1% /
1.8% |
11.2 /
4.6 |
44.1% /
47.4% |
20.6% /
36.8% |
3.9 /
3.0 |
62 /
80 |
54.3% /
37.7% |
50.0% /
36.3% |
69.5% /
35.6% |
7.2 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
54.8% /
23.8% |
24.9 /
29.9 |
| 13 |
@JAC |
28 – 11 W |
16.8 |
43.2% /
23.9% |
10.8% /
10.9% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
6.5 /
4.2 |
29.0% /
41.2% |
45.2% /
29.4% |
2.4 /
2.9 |
68 /
63 |
34.7% /
28.3% |
36.8% /
28.6% |
61.0% /
40.9% |
4.6 /
3.8 |
1.5% /
3.2% |
45.6% /
27.0% |
37.4 /
28.7 |
| 14 |
IND |
38 – 35 W |
-4.4 |
62.0% /
29.7% |
2.0% /
2.7% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
6.6 |
35.7% /
45.5% |
10.7% /
31.8% |
2.7 /
3.0 |
78 /
59 |
53.3% /
32.5% |
52.6% /
35.6% |
42.1% /
47.2% |
6.9 /
5.2 |
1.3% /
1.7% |
35.9% /
37.3% |
27.5 /
35.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@ARI |
27 – 27 T |
9.4 |
47.9% /
35.6% |
6.3% /
8.5% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
7.5 /
4.7 |
53.1% /
56.5% |
25.0% /
13.0% |
3.6 /
4.9 |
80 /
82 |
57.6% /
41.7% |
50.0% /
41.5% |
45.5% /
39.5% |
6.0 /
4.7 |
2.5% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
28.0% |
26.5 /
28.4 |
| 2 |
LAC |
13 – 10 W |
-1.9 |
56.7% /
43.2% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
6.7% /
2.8% |
8.2 /
7.8 |
50.0% /
52.0% |
17.9% /
16.0% |
3.4 /
5.5 |
58 /
62 |
56.5% /
46.9% |
53.4% /
46.8% |
39.8% /
55.4% |
5.8 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
48.3% /
40.3% |
20.7 /
22.0 |
| 3 |
@PHI |
27 – 24 W |
4.8 |
40.6% /
43.6% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
6.3 |
35.7% /
46.7% |
39.3% /
10.0% |
3.1 /
4.2 |
60 /
69 |
38.6% /
44.4% |
38.3% /
44.9% |
43.2% /
54.4% |
4.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
46.7% /
43.5% |
38.9 /
25.6 |
| 4 |
KC |
30 – 34 L |
1.3 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
10.5% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
7.5 |
65.7% /
60.0% |
20.0% /
24.0% |
5.3 /
4.9 |
73 /
67 |
61.7% /
54.4% |
57.5% /
53.7% |
52.3% /
37.2% |
6.1 /
6.5 |
2.7% /
4.5% |
47.9% /
37.3% |
33.3 /
22.5 |
| 6 |
@GB |
22 – 23 L |
5.8 |
40.0% /
40.0% |
8.6% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
6.9 /
6.9 |
40.0% /
62.1% |
30.0% /
3.4% |
2.8 /
5.9 |
55 /
69 |
45.0% /
53.6% |
40.0% /
49.3% |
58.9% /
49.0% |
5.4 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
36.4% /
42.0% |
33.2 /
21.0 |
| 7 |
MIN |
30 – 42 L |
-2.5 |
53.2% /
67.6% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
9.9 |
55.0% /
54.1% |
10.0% /
13.5% |
4.1 /
4.5 |
67 /
71 |
54.5% /
63.8% |
53.7% /
60.6% |
37.9% /
43.7% |
6.5 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.9% /
52.1% |
24.7 /
23.6 |
| 8 |
NYG |
31 – 26 W |
7.1 |
50.0% /
45.5% |
11.1% /
6.8% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
8.8 /
6.6 |
20.0% /
41.7% |
36.0% /
20.8% |
2.4 /
3.3 |
61 /
68 |
33.3% /
43.4% |
37.7% /
44.1% |
49.9% /
32.7% |
6.1 /
5.4 |
1.6% /
1.5% |
41.0% /
35.3% |
26.4 /
27.7 |
| 9 |
@OAK |
24 – 31 L |
-1.9 |
51.2% /
53.1% |
4.7% /
3.1% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
8.7 |
50.0% /
55.6% |
35.0% /
8.3% |
4.5 /
4.8 |
63 /
68 |
52.0% /
54.7% |
50.8% /
54.4% |
62.4% /
54.0% |
7.5 /
6.6 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
52.9% |
28.6 /
23.7 |
| 10 |
@CHI |
13 – 20 L |
-4.3 |
37.5% /
42.9% |
4.2% /
17.9% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
5.2 |
48.1% /
41.7% |
22.2% /
25.0% |
3.6 /
3.4 |
75 /
52 |
44.4% /
48.7% |
41.3% /
42.3% |
28.3% /
25.2% |
4.8 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.0% /
46.2% |
30.0 /
25.8 |
| 11 |
DAL |
27 – 35 L |
-2.6 |
41.4% /
59.6% |
10.3% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
9.2 |
57.1% /
45.8% |
21.4% /
12.5% |
4.3 /
3.1 |
57 /
71 |
51.2% /
56.4% |
49.1% /
54.9% |
63.1% /
41.7% |
5.5 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
49.1% /
33.8% |
29.0 /
20.5 |
| 12 |
@WAS |
16 – 19 L |
-2.2 |
35.9% /
33.3% |
15.4% /
9.1% |
9.1% /
3.3% |
4.8 /
4.4 |
53.1% /
33.3% |
15.6% /
16.7% |
5.5 /
3.6 |
71 /
57 |
44.6% /
36.6% |
43.7% /
33.3% |
37.4% /
49.6% |
5.1 /
4.0 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
45.1% /
42.1% |
32.1 /
30.8 |
| 13 |
CHI |
20 – 24 L |
3.8 |
40.0% /
61.5% |
5.0% /
2.6% |
2.6% /
2.6% |
6.5 /
8.5 |
51.9% /
47.8% |
18.5% /
21.7% |
3.9 /
3.8 |
67 /
62 |
44.0% /
60.0% |
44.8% /
56.5% |
47.5% /
26.5% |
5.4 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
37.1% |
31.1 /
24.1 |
| 14 |
@MIN |
7 – 20 L |
-12.0 |
48.9% /
54.8% |
11.1% /
3.2% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
3.6 /
7.5 |
59.1% /
38.5% |
22.7% /
20.5% |
3.2 /
3.1 |
67 /
70 |
54.0% /
50.0% |
52.2% /
45.7% |
10.0% /
29.7% |
3.4 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.8% /
55.7% |
24.9 /
29.0 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@ 
Detroit Lions